Nickal Vs. Brundage Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight prospects Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage will duel this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 300.

Nickal is the talk of the town. One of the most credentialed amateur wrestlers on UFC’s roster, Nickal has been training with American Top Team for many years now, bursting onto the scene with skills everywhere. He’s been in the Octagon four times now between Contender Series and his official UFC career, and nobody has made it to the three-minute mark. Brundage, meanwhile, doesn’t have quite as much hype behind him. A member of the roster since 2021, Brundage has maintained a .500 UFC record through eight bouts, but at least all of his victories have come before the final bell.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Nickal Vs. Brundage Betting Odds

• Bo Nickal victory: -3800
• Bo Nickal via TKO/KO/DQ: +130
• Bo Nickal via submission: -110
• Bo Nickal via decision: +700
• Cody Brundage victory: +950
• Cody Brundage via TKO/KO/DQ: +2500
• Cody Brundage via submission: +3000
• Cody Brundage via decision: +2200
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Nickal Wins

Among numerous other wrestling accomplishments, Nickal is a three-time NCAA champion and four time All-American wrestler out of Penn State University. He is ridiculously accomplished in that realm, and early indications show he’s taking to striking and jiu-jitsu like a fish to water. Of course, training with the biggest fight team in the world certainly helps.

Nickal wins this fight by playing to his strengths. It’s great that he knocked out short-notice replacement, Val Woodburn, in his last appearance (watch it), but Brundage is a bit more of a threat given that he’s completed a full camp and has UFC experience.

Wrestling is the answer.

Nickal doesn’t have to rush to the takedown, but he should be showing Brundage the threat of the shot right away then using that threat to land probing shots and establish his range. Before long, the time to shoot will be apparent, and Nickal is back in his wheelhouse.

How Brundage Wins

Brundage doesn’t get paid by the hour. Win or lose, the former collegiate wrestler doesn’t usually hang around until the judges deliver their verdict. He’s aggressive and heavy-handed, and Brundage usually pushes a really hard pace until somebody collapses.

In this bout, Brundage has to really paths to victory, and both of them involve winning on the feet. On one hand, Brundage has scored one-punch knockouts in the past, and Nickal is a human being — it’s certainly possible that Brundage times an overhand well in the opening minutes and clocks him.

Alternatively, Brundage can win this fight by taking Nickal into deep waters. That’s not his typical M.O., but Brundage does have a lot more cage time than Nickal, particularly at the higher level. If Brundage can focus on surviving on the floor and forcing Nickal to work hard for his takedowns, then he has a reasonable shot at landing something heavy in the latter half of the fight.

Nickal Vs. Brundage Prediction

It’s pretty difficult to go against the -3800 favorite, even if I think that number is silly.

While Brundage does have the tools necessary to concoct an upset, he’s in a difficult situation. It’s never easy to beat a fighter who does what you do but better. Brundage is a good wrestler, but Nickal is a great one. Brundage is a good athlete, but at least in wrestling, Nickal has already proven himself to be a generational one.

Is the small gap in overall mixed martial arts (MMA) experience likely to overcome that issue? Probably not. Most likely, Nickal takes down his opponent and advances to a dominant position immediately (power wrestlers like Brundage aren’t known for their elaborate bottom games).

And that’s probably the end of that story.

Prediction: Nickal via submission (-110)

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