Nickal Vs. Craig Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

UFC 300: Nickal v Brundage — Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight finishers Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig will throw down this weekend (Sat., Nov. 16, 2024) at UFC 309 from Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.

In a way, this is almost a perfect match up. On one side of the equation, we have Bo Nickal, the most hyped up prospect in all of mixed martial arts (MMA). The collegiate wrestling great is widely expected to become a world champion at some point, and the betting odds swell to astronomical numbers each time he gets a new fight booked. Opposite him in Craig, a hilariously flawed who has somehow been ranked Top 10 in two separate divisions — and deservedly so! Paul has a knack for catching excellent opponents off-guard and winning in miraculous fashion, so it almost feels like the stars are aligning for the most legendary “Bearjew” upset yet.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Nickal vs. Craig Betting Odds

Bo Nickal victory: -1000
Bo Nickal via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Bo Nickal via submission: TBD
Bo Nickal via decision: TBD
Paul Craig victory: +650
Paul Craig via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Paul Craig via submission: TBD
Paul Craig via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Nickal Wins

Nickal is an exceptional wrestler, a three-time Division I national champion. What really stands out about the Southpaw is his length of time spent training at American Top Team relative to his actual professional career. For a wrestler coming into MMA, his jiu-jistu and stand up are already far more developed than most.

More than anything else, I believe Craig tests Nickal’s composure here. Between his wrestling, heavy hands, and general athleticism, Craig has multiple ways to beat Craig in a fairly safe fashion. Craig is tough and experienced, however, so the key will be keeping his head straight if the early finish doesn’t materialize.

I’d like to see Nickal commit to the kickboxing at least for a round. Craig has some decent kicks, but he’s not a huge knockout threat. Nickal can afford to test the waters there and take a few shots if need be. Not only would the stand up experience be good for him — time striking in the cage is far more valuable to a young pro than any amount of stand up training in the gym — but he stands a fair chance at picking apart Craig without ever having to worry about that pesky triangle choke.

How Craig Wins

Craig’s jiu-jitsu black belt and ability to take a beating are responsible for most of his wins. Time and time again, Craig has been bloodied and down on the scorecards only to suddenly reverse his fortunes with a slick finish from his back. That’s spectacularly rare in modern MMA, but Craig has still managed to submit the likes of Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill, and Nikita Krylov from his back.

Not bad.

As I somewhat alluded to above, Craig has to force a mistake from Nickal here. Perhaps the biggest key to doing so is aggressive stand up. Craig’s technical boxing has always been rough, but if he’s aggressive, he can at least be dangerous! When Craig is marching forward flinging awkward punches and trying to grab the double-collar tie to land knees, he’s a viable threat and has stopped people.

Craig’s stand up doesn’t have to be beautiful to make Nickal uncomfortable. If he can force Nickal into a reactive state and draw out bad shots, he gives himself the best possible chance at snatching up a submission in one of the ensuing scrambles.

Nickal vs. Craig Prediction

It’s a Paul Craig fight. There’s always the chance lightning strikes for the eighth time, and he snatches up a sudden submission in a fight he was otherwise losing. That’s the fun of “Bearjew,” as well as why Nickal is a mere 10-1 favorite instead of an even wider gap.

I still have to pick Nickal. Outside of Craig’s chance at wild magic, there’s no reason to pick him. Nickal is a genuine blue chip prospect training at one of the best gyms in the world, and he really shouldn’t lose to anyone outside of the Top 15 even at this stage of the game. Whether he grounds Craig or stands with him, I favor the wrestler.

Prediction: Nickal via decision

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 309 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 309: “Jones vs. Miocic” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.