Bellator Lightweight champion, Usman Nurmagomedov, will attempt to defend his crown opposite knockout artist, Alexander Shabliy, this weekend (Sat., Sept. 7, 2024) at Bellator Champion Series 4 inside Pechanga Arena in San Diego, California.
Forget all the weirdness with PFL purchasing Bellator and sidelining half of the roster: this is an outstanding Lightweight clash, one of the best possible non-UFC match ups in the world. It’s also the finals match of the Bellator Lightweight World Grand Prix, which began way back in March 2023.
The Nuragomedov hype is simultaneously absurd and completely justified. This is an athlete described as the most talented of the Dagestani bunch, which is silly … but he’s also undefeated in 18 pro fights and already a defending world champion at 26 years of age. Maybe it’s not silly? Shabliy is an excellent foil to the champion, an expert kickboxer with great wrestling and a ton of high-level experience on the Russian Lightweight scene.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Nurmagomedov vs. Shabliy Betting Odds
- Usman Nurmagomedov victory: -455
- Usman Nurmagomedov via TKO/KO/DQ: +550
- Usman Nurmagomedov via submission: +350
- Usman Nurmagomedov via decision: -105
- Alexandr Shabliy victory: +320
- Alexandr Shabliy via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
- Alexandr Shabliy via submission: +3000
- Alexandr Shabliy via decision: +550
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Nurmagomedov Wins
Dominant wrestling is expected when a fighter has the Nurmagomedov family name. Usman separates himself from the family with perhaps the best striking of the lot, a varied and powerful kicking game that can end fights in an instant. Still, the reason Nurmagomedov has been so dominant in Bellator is that he can do it all. The champion kicks extremely well, has power in his hands, and can maul opposition on the canvas.
In this match up, wrestling feels like the best bet. Shabliy is an expert striker himself and might just hold the power advantage. It’s in Nurmagomedov’s best interest, then, to convince Shabliy that he’s in a kickboxing match only to frustrate him with well-timed shots.
Shabliy is a skilled and experienced veteran unlikely to fold just because he’s taken down a couple times, but that’s how Nurmagomedov can remain in the driver’s seat. We’ve seen Shabliy engage in low-volume fights against high-level strikers in the past (like vs. Tofiq Musayev), so a couple takedowns in a slower fight can make a huge difference.
How Shabliy Wins
Shabliy is a very well-rounded talent with a background in hand-to-hand combat as well as Combat Sambo. He can do it all, but Shabliy likes to strike and is more of a pressure fighter — and one hit knockout artist — than his opponent.
Fighters like Nurmagomedov who kick and wrestle exceptionally well are always difficult. Opponents want to pressure to stop the kicks, but they walk into takedowns. If they hang back, they just get kicked … and maybe still taken down along the fence. It’s a powerful dynamic that isn’t easy to answer. We just saw a very smart fighter in Cory Sandhagen successfully negate Umar Nurmagomedov’s wrestling, but he still couldn’t pressure and generate his own offense.
It’s a complicated task.
Nevertheless, it’s what Shabliy must accomplish here. Patient pressure aided by feints and smart shot selection is the key to victory. I’d like to see Shabliy look to chop into the calf at moments when Nurmagomedov cannot attempt to wrestle, like when he’s circling off, jabbing, or in the middle of his own kick. Shabliy’s front kick could be a good weapon as well, particularly if thrown at the end of combinations.
Combos are key here as well. It’s so hard to build offense against the Nurmagomedov fight team, but single shots just aren’t going to beat them.
Nurmagomedov vs. Shabliy Prediction
It’s hard to go against the rising phenom.
I like Shabliy’s game and experience a lot. He’s definitely a top Lightweight who gives most anyone trouble, and that includes Usman Nurmagomedov. Unfortunately, Nurmagomedov is going to be the faster man, and it’s hard not to imagine his wrestling sealing at least one round. Shabliy could make something happen if able to gain the pocket consistently, but I expect he ends up stuck at the kicking range for long periods of the fight.
Usman Nurmagomedov remains Bellator’s undefeated champion and best overall fighter.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via decision (-105)