Ortega Vs. Lopes Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight scrappers Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes will go to war this weekend (Sat., Sept. 14, 2024) at UFC 306 from inside The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Both Ortega and Lopes did UFC a huge favorite by stepping up on short-notice to save UFC 303 after Conor McGregor broke his pinky toe and was forced to withdraw from the main event (seriously). Unfortunately, Ortega is a huge Featherweight, and the attempts to make 145 pounds on short-notice made him ill and ended up canceling the fight entirely (details here).

Lopes stuck around to heroically fight Dan Ige on a few hour’s notice (not exaggerating), lining up the duo for this rescheduled match up on one of the biggest cards of the year. Lopes has the opportunity to break into the title mix, whereas Ortega can make an argument that he’s ready for his second UFC title shot.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Ortega vs. Lopes Betting Odds

Brian Ortega victory: +145
Brian Ortega via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Brian Ortega via submission: TBD
Brian Ortega via decision: TBD
Diego Lopes victory: -175
Diego Lopes via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Diego Lopes via submission: TBD
Diego Lopes via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Ortega Wins

Ortega is one of the most opportunistic fighters in the game. If he senses any weakness in his opponents, he has a true gift for snatching finishes out of thin air both on the floor and on the feet. Ortega is also one of the most durable men in the business, capable of taking a monstrous beating and still coming back big.

I would not advise playing the role of nail versus Lopes, however. The Brazilian seems to hit seriously hard, possibly hard enough to crack Ortega’s legendary chin. Ortega doesn’t really have the defense to not get hit entirely, so he would be wise to meet fire with fire and step to Lopes with confidence.

Ortega is dangerous in the pocket too and has a knack for timing hard counter shots. He can stand toe-to-toe with Lopes, but ultimately, top control might be his best path. If Ortega can survive the early wildness, he could replicate Evloev and Ige’s success in dragging Lopes to the floor late. Unlike the Russian wrestler, however, Ortega has the grappling to advance position and perhaps threaten Lopes with his submissions.

How Lopes Wins

In just a few fights, Lopes has proven himself one of the best offensive talents in the sport. He’s just vicious everywhere: from his back, in the clinch, at distance, and in the pocket. Large and athletic for the division, Lopes is growing increasingly confident in his ability to just blow opponents out of the water.

Perhaps that happens here, but it wouldn’t be wise to bet on a first-round finish of the inhumanly tough Ortega. There is a real risk that Lopes cracks Ortega, empties his gas tank trying to finish “T-City,” then has to deal with an undeterred Ortega for several more rounds.

That’s a situation to be avoided, which means managing energy levels. In general, Lopes’ victory hinges on his ability to make good choices against an elite opponent. He’s got the tools to do a ton of damage, but he has to pick and choose when to engage and when to circle off. Similarly, he doesn’t want to get too submission-happy and end up on bottom repeatedly.

A touch of patience will go a long way for the action fighter.

Ortega vs. Lopes Prediction

I still don’t feel like I have a full read on Lopes’ ability. Going 15 minutes with Ige certainly helped fill-in some gaps, but it was also such a bizarre circumstance that who really knows how much we can trust that information.

All the same, I have a difficult time seeing the first five minutes going well for Ortega. Lopes is an offensive dynamo, and Ortega’s face seems like a magnet for damage. Two questions arise though: can Lopes finish him with his first-round onslaught, and if not, what does the rest of the fight look like?

I expect Ortega to be bloodied but still swinging come round two. How does Lopes handle that? We’ve seen plenty of prospects crumble when veterans refuse to go away. Still, I have confidence Lopes can hold it together. He may be just 29 years old, but Lopes is not some fresh-faced rookie. The man has 30 professional fights, including one that went five rounds. He shouldn’t be shocked if the finish refuses to materialize, and he was able to endure some bad spots and big punches against Ige without coming undone.

Again, it’ll likely come down to patience and shot selection, but Lopes seems like a cerebral fighter who understands his path to victory. So long as he manages the gas tank, he should be able to stay a step ahead of “T-City.”

Prediction: Lopes via decision (odds not yet released)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 306 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 306: “O’Malley vs. Merab” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.