Pantoja Vs. Asakura Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight finishers Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., Dec. 7, 2024) at UFC 310 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Pantoja is currently undefeated (9-0) against the Top 10 of UFC’s Flyweight division. He’s already beaten almost all of the established top contenders, including No. 1 and No. 2 … twice! For the champion, running out of contenders is a good problem. UFC is presumably less thrilled and have been forced to move in an unexpected direction by bringing in RIZIN kingpin Asakura for the rare debut title shot. This almost never happens, but Asakura is a worthy recipient. Not only is the Japanese talent a major star in his home country, he’s also an electric knockout artist who has stopped some truly excellent fighters. By UFC standards, this style of booking is an absolute spectacle, and it makes for an exciting main event … even if it’s unlikely to sell that many pay-per-view (PPV) buys.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Pantoja vs. Asakura Betting Odds

• Alexandre Pantoja victory: -250
• Alexandre Pantoja via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
• Alexandre Pantoja via submission: +165
• Alexandre Pantoja via decision: +275
• Kai Asakura victory: +205
• Kai Asakura via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
• Kai Asakura via submission: +2800
• Kai Asakura via decision: +800
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Pantoja Wins

Pantoja is not a perfect fighter, but the champion knows how to play to his strengths. Gifted with elite jiu-jitsu, an incredible jaw and clubbing power, the Brazilian is a bit of a marauder. He charges forward wildly, creates chaos, and usually finds his way into top position as a result of his reckless advances.

Is it really reckless if it works?

Despite holding a clear advantage on the floor, this remains a dangerous challenge for the champion. Pantoja relies on his chin to survive those chaotic exchanges, but Asakura is the most powerful hitter he’s faced since Deiveson Figueiredo. That fight happened a half-decade ago, and Pantoja has been in plenty of bloody wars since. Put simply, the possibility of Asakura cracking his chin is legitimate.

Rushing is an essential part of Pantoja’s game. He can’t just stop doing it, stand on the outside, and get creamed by a one-two combination. However, Pantoja has shown an ability — notably vs. a dangerous counter punch in Manel Kape — to hang back and kick very effectively. Asakura has shown a weakness to low kicks in the past too, which could be an avenue to build a lead. Then, he can rely on the blitz less often and hopefully find more success with that gamble when he turns to it.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

How Asakura Wins

Asakura is a nasty knockout artist. He reminds me a bit of Robbie Lawler in that he began his career as a brawler and slowly added more technical tools and strategy to his gain without losing those savage instincts. Not only does the Japanese fighter have huge power in both hands, but his knees are among the best in the sport.

It will not be easy, but the game plan for Asakura is clear here: sprawl and brawl baby! Asakura has to remain mobile and off the fence, where his cage inexperience could be an issue. At distance, Asakura has to do damage without over-extending in the process, because a single easy takedown usually costs an entire round given Pantoja’s excellent top control.

A one-punch knockout is always possible, but it shouldn’t be expected given Pantoja’s durability. Instead, I’d really like to see Asakura focus on breaking down the champion with body work. We’ve seen Pantoja fatigue in each of his five-round fights now, and Asakura can hurry along that trait with crosses to the belly and his infamous intercepting knees.

Pantoja’s wrestling gets much sloppier as he fatigues. Even if Asakura is struggling to stay upright early, a committed body attack could shift the momentum and open up a kill shot later in the fight.

Pantoja vs. Asakura Prediction

Asakura is a wild card. He’s faced three truly excellent Flyweights in his career (Kape, Horiguchi, Ougikubo) and split bouts with all of them. That’s the nature of being an aggressive fighter with huge power — he tends to win or lose dramatically, and he doesn’t always have a consistent path to victory.

Even so, I think the coin flip is weighted in his favor. Pantoja is a flawed fighter himself. His performance against Steve Erceg — less accomplished and less dangerous than Asakura — demonstrated some significant issues that could have easily cost him the belt. At 34 years of age, the Brazilian is entering his third championship fight in the last 12 months and has already fought 50 minutes in that span.

That’s a lot of wear-and-tear on a fighter already deep into his career, and he’s going into the cage against an absolutely ferocious puncher. Unless Pantoja secures the early strangle — which is certainly possible, though Asakura has never been submitted — he’s going to end up fatigued in the cage with an opponent who can spark him.

Defense has never been the Pantoja specialty …

Prediction: Asakura via knockout (+350)

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