Paul Vs. Perry Betting Odds, Prediction

“El Gallo,” Jake Paul, will take on bareknuckle boxing savage, Mike Perry, in a gloved Cruiserweight boxing match TONIGHT (Sat., July 20, 2024) from inside Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.

Get full (and live) “Fear No Man” results later this evening here.

Paul was ready to leave boxing washed mixed martial arts (MMA) fighters behind. Seriously, mock it as much as it deserves, but Paul versus Mike Tyson live streaming on Netflix would’ve been a massive cultural event, the kind your family members who think UFC fighting equates to Chuck Liddell end up watching.

Oh well.

Instead, Tyson’s health issues have left Paul to turn to his backup option on a much smaller stage. “Platinum” was never going to be the the first choice: he’s a star only in combat sports circles, as well as an absolute junkyard dog of a brawler. Perry does not go down easily, and he’s sure to push the pace against his larger opponent in this match up.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Paul vs. Perry Betting Odds

• Jake Paul victory: -425
• Jake Paul via TKO/KO/DQ: -125
• Jake Paul via decision: +250
• Mike Perry victory: +300
• Mike Perry via TKO/KO/DQ: +450
• Mike Perry via decision: +1200
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Paul Wins

Jake Paul sets himself up for success. The social media star has put in the time and effort to show up in shape and build up his boxing skill, but he still makes sure to stack the odds by entering as the younger and bigger man.

Range is going to be key here. Though Paul certainly hits plenty hard and can hurt Perry, he doesn’t want to be in the pocket trading combinations. He’s better in short exchanges, and more to the point, he’s going to have significant height and reach advantages. Even in bare knuckle, we’ve seen Perry stuck on the outside and forced to lunge forward, leaving himself open in the process.

Paul has a stiff jab and knows how to move his feet. If he jabs up and down the body and remains a moving target, he can walk Perry into a huge right hand or uppercut counter. If the shot doesn’t fell Perry, that strategy should keep him up on the cards, too.

How Perry Wins

Perry is an animal. He’s a glutton for punishment and has massive power in both hands, as well as the cardio and grit to use it deep in brutal fights. There is some strategy to Perry’s bare knuckle success, but a whole lot of the recipe is simple meanness and self-belief.

In close quarters, Perry has the skills to tear Paul up with body-head combinations and general viciousness. The problem, as outlined above, will be getting there. Perry’s average footwork and tall stance mean that cutting off the ring has never been his strong suit, but it certainly needs to be a focus here.

While advancing, Perry has to feint. Hiding his bursts will make the counter more difficult. In addition, Perry needs to jab with Paul. The reach edge probably ensures Paul’s jab lands cleaner more often than not, but that doesn’t mean Perry should handicap himself by not using his longest weapon.

Overall, the end goals of pressure and body work feel clear. If Perry can track down Paul then slow his legs with attritional damage, he sets himself up for a strong finish to the fight.

Paul Vs. Perry Prediction

I want to pick the upset so badly. I’ve been a fan of Perry since his was an absolute wildcard on UFC “Prelims,” but my unfortunate read here is that Perry is not the better boxer and is facing a significant size disadvantage.

In bareknuckle, I’d fully expect Perry to cave in Paul’s teeth and ribs. Even in MMA gloves, I like the odds on “Platinum.” Alas, Paul has a fairly simple task ahead of him by boxing standards, and he has the tools to execute the gameplan. Jabbing and moving with a major size advantage against an opponent with relative little actual boxing experience isn’t that challenging or tiring, and Perry leaves plenty of openings when he ducks his head and swings his way forward.

I’m optimistic that Perry can have a moment or two and at least make Paul work for the victory, but Paul snags at least six of these rounds.

Prediction: Paul via decision (+250)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry card right here, starting with YouTube “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET (and right here). The remaining PPV main card will air on DAZN at 9 p.m. ET.

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