Pavlovich Vs. Rozenstruik Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight sluggers Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik will go to war this weekend (Sat., Feb. 1, 2025) at UFC Saudi Arabia from anb Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

It’s hard to describe the loss of aura suffered by Pavlovich in just two fights. The fearsome Russian boxer looked every part of a future champion in his six-fight knockout streak, refusing to let a single foe escape the first round. Getting blasted by Tom Aspinall was forgivable enough, especially since he managed to stun the current interim king too, but getting picked apart by former team mate Alexander Volkov for three full rounds?

Nobody is scared anymore.

Rozenstruik has stepped into the cage with plenty of huge hitters anyway. The former professional kickboxer has won three of his last four, most recently pummeling Tai Tuivasa. Generally, he still seems to be improving, so perhaps the 36-year-old veteran hasn’t hit his ceiling just yet?

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik Betting Odds

Sergei Pavlovich victory: -305
Sergei Pavlovich via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Sergei Pavlovich via submission: TBD
Sergei Pavlovich via decision: TBD
Jairzinho Rozenstruik victory: +245
Jairzinho Rozenstruik via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Jairzinho Rozenstruik via submission: TBD
Jairzinho Rozenstruik via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Pavlovich Wins

Pavlovich is a tank. Despite a background in Greco-Roman wrestling and Combat Sambo, Pavlovich more typically wins fights by clubbing his foes into unconsciousness with his heavy right hand.

Why wasn’t that right hand able to land against Volkov? Pavlovich really failed to close distance on his lanky opponent. Likely, Rozenstruik will try to employ a similar game plan and attempt to strand Pavlovich at distance, even if he’s not quite as rangy as “Drago.”

The keys to avoiding a repeat struggle are feints and footwork. Pavlovich cannot just run forward on a straight line at a dangerous counter puncher … well, okay, maybe he can, but that would make the outcome much more of a coin flip on who lands first. If instead he takes the time to cut off the cage and feint/jab Rozenstruik towards the fence, he stands a much better chance at safely scoring the same knockout.

How Rozenstruik Wins

Rozenstruik is a crafty kickboxing veteran. He excels at playing the long game, poking and prodding his opponents with quick jabs and light kicks. Then, when they return fire, he’ll sit them down with a check hook or counter combination.

That’s a great strategy against Pavlovich. The problem is the Francis Ngannou fight, in which “The Predator” bulldozed Rozenstruik by charging through his half-power offense with a very real blitz of heavy shots. Ngannou and Pavlovich have a similar level of world-altering power, and Rozenstruik doesn’t want to get blasted by a wild combo again.

To avoid that fate, Rozenstruik has to find a way to halt Pavlovich’s advance, which will buy him time to line up bigger counter shots. Volkov did so with snappy front kicks and counter right hands, but the body jab may end up Rozenstruik’s weapon of choice. If he can fire a stiff jab into the chest of Pavlovich when the Russian advances, it will help keep him and that clubbing right hand out of range.

Rozenstruik will have to stand his ground a bit in the process, but that’s a better recipe for success than sliding backwards and getting caught at the end of a flurry.

Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik Prediction

Even without his momentum, it’s tough to go against Sergei Pavlovich here.

Pavlovich will be the larger, faster, and more powerful man. At Heavyweight, those physical factors are the deciders more often not. Volkov may have been able to avoid his haymakers, but “Drago” also had a significant height advantage and plenty of training experience to aid him. Rozenstruik doesn’t have either of those edges, and he’s never shown to be a particularly crafty defensive fighter.

In a Heavyweight firefight, you might as well side with the guy bringing a bazooka.

Prediction: Pavlovich via knockout