Pereira Vs. Hill Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight knockout artists Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill will clash TONIGHT (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 300.

Pereira’s rise to stardom has been remarkable. Lots of talented kickboxers attempt to transition into the cage, but few stick around longer than their first takedown and submission loss. Pereira, meanwhile, has parlayed learning on the job into two titles, though he’s still looking for the first title defense of his UFC career.

Hill’s own rise to the top wasn’t quite as meteoric, but “Sweet Dreams” is still a relatively fresh face at 205 pounds. He really put it all together after his upset loss to Paul Craig (watch it), going on a violent tear through quality competition that ultimately ended with a title on his shoulder. He’s coming back after over a year away from the cage because of injury, which is an important narrative ahead of his fight.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Pereira Vs. Hill Betting Odds

• Alex Pereira victory: -130
• Alex Pereira via TKO/KO/DQ: +120
• Alex Pereira via submission: +2000
• Alex Pereira via decision: +600
• Jamahal Hill victory: +105
• Jamahal Hill via TKO/KO/DQ: +180
• Jamahal Hill via submission: +1400
• Jamahal Hill via decision: +650
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Pereira Wins

The way Pereira wins this fight is in the same fashion to how he wins pretty much all of his fights: by detonating his left hook or cross directly onto his opponent’s chin. The crafty kickboxer has been blessed with ungodly power, and though we’ve never really seen Hill stunned, we’ve also never seen Pereira crack him.

I feel like this bout will be decided at the kicking range. Both men hit too hard to trade wildly in the pocket, particularly since they’re both facing rare opponents who can match their height and reach. Pereira’s calf kick won’t be quite as available against a (mostly) Southpaw in Hill, but he has the arsenal to adjust and still successfully win that distance.

If Pereira is a step ahead on the kicking game, he can start to lay traps for Hill. “Sweet Dreams” is an aggressive and confident fighter, but his punching form can leave something to be desired. If Pereira kicks, moves and suddenly plants his feet with a heavy combination, he can very likely catch Hill. Really, I’d like to see him reenact the Sean Strickland gameplan, which saw Pereira touching the legs, switching directions, and poking the body with his jab en route to going upstairs with a kill shot.

How Hill Wins

Hill has all the physical attributes you want in a champion. He’s big for the division, has the conditioning to set strike records, and hits absurdly hard himself. Really, Hill is a great example of a top-notch athlete making the most of great fundamental striking skills.

The idea of not-wrestling Pereira at some point seems silly. Like Hill, Jiri Prochazka isn’t known for his takedowns, but he still found success in grounding the Brazilian! It doesn’t take a lifelong wrestler to shoot a double along the fence, and Hill has more MMA experience than his opponent.

A shot or two is worth it, even if that’s not the overarching gameplan.

Otherwise, Hill has to pressure the kicker … carefully. Prochazka found a lot of success backing Pereira to the fence, feinting, and unloading combinations or takedowns, but he got too aggressive. Against men like Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker, Hill proved himself quite good at cutting the cage and bombing on kickers. Pereira is a different level of counter puncher, but the same gameplan can be applied.

That said, I also think there’s a real avenue for Hill’s snappy front kick to land while he pressures. Pereira likes to square his stance up to load his punches, but the front kick could really punish that trait.

Pereira Vs. Hill Prediction

There’s too much punching power here to be overly confident in any outcome, but I’m siding with the former champion.

I think Hill is overlooked as a talent because he gets a little crazy on social media and injured himself in a basketball game. In the cage, however, Hill’s current four-fight win streak has been hugely impressive. He’s tough, durable and knows how to pressure a kickboxer. Then, there’s the second Israel Adesanya versus “Poatan” fight, which saw “Stylebender” find good success with straight Southpaw punches, which is Hill’s M.O. Of equal importance is the simple fact that Hill has far fewer miles on him — that matters in what’s likely to be a brutal and competitive fight.

Finally, the elephant in the room that is Pereira’s ground game remains. It’s just not good! Hill may not be the most likely candidate to take advantage, but neither was Prochazka nor Adesanya, and they both spent time in top position.

Prediction: Jamahal Hill via knockout (+180)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 300 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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