Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight sluggers Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka will rematch TONIGHT (Sat., June 29, 2024) at UFC 303 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Is this the best short-notice main event of all time? It may not be the return of Conor McGregor (here’s why), but for everyone who did not spend thousands and thousands of dollars to see “The Notorious” return live, this Light Heavyweight title fight is still as good as it gets. Forget all the talk of magic and the mildly controversial referee stoppage in this fight — that stuff doesn’t matter. What does matter is that both Pereira and Prochazka are two of the most consistently violent and entertaining elite fighters of the last decade! Both men leave absolutely everything in the cage, take chances, and hunt for the finish.
As fans, what more can we ask of our champions? Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25510746/2159596208.jpg)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 Betting Odds
- Alex Pereira victory: -142
- Alex Pereira via TKO/KO/DQ: +110
- Alex Pereira via submission: +1600
- Alex Pereira via decision: +850
- Jiri Prochazka victory: +120
- Jiri Prochazka via TKO/KO/DQ: +180
- Jiri Prochazka via submission: +1000
- Jiri Prochazka via decision: +900
- Draw: +5000
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Pereira Wins
Alex Pereira has God-given knockout power in both hands. The massive Brazilian is able to generate unreasonable torque and whip in his punches, and he compliments that gift with a technical kickboxing game and abundance of patience. He knows it only takes one shot, but unlike other overpowering knockout artists, he methodically builds towards creating that moment rather than trying to force it.
Though there were difficult moments in the first fight, Pereira’s game plan played out perfectly. By establishing the low kick early, Pereira took away Prochazka’s base, made him slower, and forced him to throw really extended combinations to reach him. Then, he perfectly blocked and returned fire to floor “BJP.”
Much of the same strategy should be in play here. Prochazka’s style will always be vulnerable to low kicks, and Pereira’s are among the best in the business. If anything, Pereira could do a better job of staying off the fence, where Prochazka was able to land some solid combinations and takedowns.
How Prochazka Wins
I’ll admit a pet peeve: the calls for Prochazka to switch up his style irritate me to no end. We’re talking about a multiple-promotion world champion with a 30-4-1 professional record and 96.6% finishing ratio. Clearly, his style works tremendously well, even if there are drawbacks (just like every other possible style of fighting).
So, advising Prochazka to fight like a completely different athlete 35 fights into his professional career for a short-notice fight would be both useless and disrespectful. Fortunately, there’s a way to mitigate the outside kick: force open stance engagements when at kicking range, then shift back into Orthodox.
At distance, Prochazka — who does switch stances already — should spend more time in Southpaw, where his lead leg will be less available to the outside low kick. From that stance, Prochazka should be looking to feint to an angle, then switch back into Orthodox as he’s attacking. Pereira does not low kick from his back foot, so if Prochazka gets him moving before exposing his lead calf, he should be able to attack more effectively.
Counters are still a threat — and always will be — but a Prochazka with two solid legs beneath him stands a much better shot at taking out the champion.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25510749/1788708091.jpg)
Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images
Pereira Vs. Prochazka Prediction
First, a confession: I was quite accurate in predicting Pereira’s rise and fall at Middleweight, but I’ve consistently picked against him at Light Heavyweight … to obviously bad results on my end. When I see a fighter with clear flaws — wrestling, in the case of Pereira — continue to win, I still find it hard to overlook the flaws and available opportunity for their opposition.
I’m reminded of Tyron Woodley’s title reign. I kept picking against him because of clear issues (inability to fight a five-round pace, limited offensive options), yet “T-Wood” racked up a bunch of title defenses prior to the crash. History did eventually absolve me on that case, however, as Woodley’s weaknesses were exploited ruthlessly once opponents actually started strategizing to take advantage.
Recognizing the issues is good, but correctly timing when opponents capitalize is the tricky part of fight predictions.
Anyway: Pereira is clearly an imperfect fighter whose strengths keep hiding or excusing those issues. Prochazka is not the ideal fighter to take advantage, but he certainly has the skills to do so. He showed a lot of good ideas in the first match up and hopefully now has a greater respect for the low kick threat. With minor adjustments that fit within his usual style, Prochazka can dominate this fight and become champion once more.
Even having been demonstrated wrong in the first fight, I cannot overlook that avenue to victory.
Prediction: Prochazka via knockout (+180)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 303 fight card, starting with the “Prelims” play-by-play right here and followed by the “Main Card” play-by-play right here. The action begins on ESPN+ with the “Early Prelims” scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET. Those are followed by the “Late Prelims” at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 303: “Pereira vs. Prochazka 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.