Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight contenders Alex Perez and Tatsuro Taira will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., June 15, 2024) at UFC Vegas 93 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
It was easy to write Perez off heading into his last fight against Matheus Nicolau. The former title contender hadn’t won a fight since 2020, had lost three straight, and was downright flat in his previous showing versus Muhammad Mokaev. Fortunately, Perez turned that narrative right around by getting in Nicolau’s face and knocking him out in a dominant performance.
Is Perez back? He’s trying to build momentum quickly by jumping in against Japan’s top Flyweight prospect, Tatsuro Taira. A rare Flyweight up-and-comer with genuine hype behind him, the 24 year old has quickly built up an undefeated (5-0) record inside the Octagon, and he’ll take a big step up in competition here.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Perez Vs. Taira Betting Odds
- Alex Perez victory: +164
- Alex Perez via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
- Alex Perez via submission: +1000
- Alex Perez via decision: +450
- Tatsuro Taira victory: -198
- Tatsuro Taira via TKO/KO/DQ: +650
- Tatsuro Taira via submission: +130
- Tatsuro Taira via decision: +400
- Draw: +5000
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
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How Perez Wins
Alex Perez rose up the Flyweight ladder with a mix of quality skills and serious physical strength. He’s a rare 125-pound knockout artist, has collegiate wrestling experience, and has wrapped up some slick submissions inside the Octagon.
Similar to his last bout versus Nicolau, sprawl-and-brawl is the obvious path to victory for Perez. He could try to use his wrestling offensively, but why charge forward into Taira’s wheelhouse? The better option is to keep this bout on the feet, where Taira is talented but still fairly raw.
In a stand up fight, Perez does still have to find an answer for Taira’s range advantage. The best option would be slow, consistent pressure. If Perez is feinting actively and taking angles before he advances, he should be able to find his way inside Taira’s looping shots. Once inside the pocket, body-head combinations should ensure his power punches find their mark.
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How Taira Wins
A pro since 2018, Taira has yet to taste defeat. Jiu-jitsu is definitely his strongest attribute, but the Japanese prospect has shown a well-rounded and continually improving game while on the UFC roster.
Taira hasn’t faced an opponent the level of Perez just yet, but he’s faced plenty of men like him. Perez will hardly be the first wrestle-boxer to try to get inside on Taira with big swings or takedowns. In fact, Taira’s game is largely built to deal with shorter opponents trying to overwhelm him up close.
To defeat Perez, Taira has to manage his distance well. Probing jabs and kicks are great, but expect Taira to look to set traps in the forms of intercepting crosses and knees up the middle. He’s going to want Perez hesitating, and at any point, Taira could duck down and start working for his body lock takedowns.
If able to gain top position, Taira has the skills to dominate.
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Perez vs. Taira Prediction
This is a majorly intriguing fight atop a very underwhelming card.
Stylistically, Perez stands a great chance at playing spoiler. We don’t see the classic “hyped prospect gets smothered by the first collegiate wrestler they face” as often as we once did, but there’s every chance Perez can wrestle his way to top position and avoid submissions. In addition, Perez can crack, and Taira’s offense is more developed than his defense.
It’s tempting to pick the upset. Unfortunately, there’s one stat that stands out: Perez has five losses via submission, including two of his last three defeats. Against a younger and larger opponent with great MMA instincts, I have to assume that flaw catches up to him again. If Taira cracks him hard or just ducks to his back like Pantoja did, the fight could end before Perez gets a chance to show why he’s a reasonable underdog pick.
Prediction: Taira via submission (+130)