Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

UFC 287: Holland v Ponzinibbio — Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight veterans Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov will collide this weekend (Sat., July 13, 2024) at UFC Denver inside Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

Ponzinibbio has lost three of his last four heading into this co-main event slot, but the Brazilian has actually been fighting rather well. Split-decision losses to Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal are nothing to be ashamed about, and he was actually handling Kevin Holland nicely prior to a third-round “Trailblazer” rally (watch it). At 37 years of age, Ponzinibbio is no longer at his most athletic, but he’s settled into the gritty veteran role nicely. Salikhov — 40 years of age himself — surely understands that situation, except he never quite had peak Ponzinibbio’s speed nor power. Fortunately, “The King of Kung Fu” remains a funky and dangerous striker capable of turning off the lights.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

UFC Fight Night & Road to UFC Official Weigh-in

Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov Betting Odds

Santiago Ponzinibbio victory: -205
Santiago Ponzinibbio via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Santiago Ponzinibbio via submission: TBD
Santiago Ponzinibbio via decision: TBD
Muslim Salikhov victory: +170
Muslim Salikhov via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Muslim Salikhov via submission: TBD
Muslim Salikhov via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Ponzinibbio Wins

It’s rare to see a fighter with such an obvious turning point in their career. In 2018, Ponzinibbio was at his best, riding a massive win streak and closing in on a title shot. Health problems and injury layoffs sidelined him for most of three years, and since his return, he’s been occupying that gritty veteran role as mentioned.

That career transition featured some technical shifts as well. Since Ponzinibbio was no longer just blowing opponents out of the water with the pure ferocity of his jab, he’s now forced to build combinations and land kicks off the strike. Generally, he’s put together a nice, technical kickboxing game but is still able to dig deep and make it ugly if necessary.

It feels necessary here. Salikhov is the pretty striker, the more dedicated range technician. He’s still a step behind Ponzinibbio physically, however, so the path to victory for the Argentinian is to stay on the front foot, mix his targets, and wear Salikhov down until a big shot upstairs becomes available.

How Salikhov Wins

Saklikhov lives up to his “King of Kung Fu” nickname. He’s something of a specialist in regard to spinning techniques, but he’s also a slick counter striker who can punish his opponent’s attempts to close distance.

Contrary to Ponzinibbio, Salikhov wants a slower, cleaner kickboxing match. If he’s able to dictate the distance and choose when to engage, he’ll be the man in the driver’s seat. Since Ponzinibbio can no longer rely on blinding speed to close the distance, he’ll be more vulnerable to Salikhov’s counters, particularly after being softened up by a few body kicks.

I’d like to see Salikhov focus on winning the low kick battle here, which is a solid weapon for both men. If Salikhov is the one chopping Ponzinibbio down, the Argentinian will have a more difficult time tracking him down. Conversely, if Salikhov is getting his lead leg battered, he’ll end up in the pocket versus the power puncher more often than he’d like. Salikhov has the varied kicking game to hide those low kicks and set them up well, and they could be a helpful weapon for him.

Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov Prediction

This should be a competitive fight for as long as it lasts, but all the x-factors go the way of Ponzinibbio. Though the two men are of similar ages and at similar points in their career, it has to be mentioned that Ponzinibbio reached a higher peak than Salikhov. Consequently, he’s been fighting a higher level of competition even late in his career.

It feels like a step up for Salikhov and step back for Ponzinibbio. The hard-nosed “Gente Boa” may take a round to find his mark, but at some point, he’s going to establish his range and start landing. It’s also a bit concerning that Salikhov went 20 professional fights without getting knocked out, but has been stopped in via strikes twice in his last four bouts.

Ponzinibbio still has quite a bit of pop in his punches …

Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio victory (-205)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Denver fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN (simulcast on ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.

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