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It’s not the Mortal Kombat “remote island overseen by a mysterious benefactor” we wanted, but “Fight Island” sure has some quality mixed martial arts (MMA) in store. Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) kicks off its stint in Abu Dhabi this Sat. night (July 11, 2020) with three title fights in tow.
Over at Welterweight, Jorge Masvidal lives up to his BMF title by taking on reigning champion Kamaru Usman on just six days’ notice, while Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski looks to prove his victory over Max Holloway was no fluke in a 145-pound rematch. The vacant Bantamweight title will also receive a new owner when Petr Yan puts his unbeaten Octagon record on the line against the legendary Jose Aldo.
The stacked pay-per-view (PPV) card also features an enticing Strawweight rematch between former champions Rose Namajunas and Jessica Andrade alongside the return of Paige VanZant against fast-rising flyweight Amanda Ribas.
Our usual main card guy got waylaid by fungus zombies, so this solemn duty falls to me once again. As always, UFC 251 “Prelims” predictions are here and here, with the latest UFC 251 odds and betting lines located right here.
All caught up? Let’s continue.
170 lb. Championship: Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (c) vs. Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal
Both of these men deserve credit for making this fight happen, Masvidal for stepping up on short notice and Usman for accepting a challenger who is not only extremely dangerous but profoundly different from his original opponent. This is what champion material looks like.
Unfortunately for Masvidal, he’ll have to content himself with being champion material.
Beneath the subpar trash talk and assorted beefs, Usman is nightmarishly strong, impressively well-rounded, and terrifyingly persistent. Even with Masvidal’s recent willingness to actually let his hands go, Usman can match or exceed his pace, and “Gamebred’s” historically solid takedown defense is insufficient against the largest and most physically dominant wrestler he’s yet faced.
Usman’s willingness to turn fights into slogs and ability to do so for 25 minutes will sorely limit Masvidal’s opportunities to get his boxing going. Masvidal might have enough pop to make those rare opportunities count, but he’s the more likely of the two to hit the deck, as he historically gets dropped early even by substandard punchers.
Masvidal’s ostensible inability to overwhelm Usman or dissuade him from constantly grinding limits his method of victory to the sort of out-of-nowhere knockouts he scored against Darren Till and Ben Askren. He’ll struggle to find that sort of opening against Usman, a more versatile fighter than either of those two. Relentless takedown attempts carry Usman to a clear victory in his second defense.
Prediction: Usman via unanimous decision
145 lb. Championship: Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski (c) vs. Max “Blessed” Holloway
Alexander Volkanovski’s upset of Holloway last year was not the product of Holloway having a rough night or Volkanovski having a night of extreme overachievement. Volkanovski and the City Kickboxing crew simply gameplanned to absolute perfection and executed beautifully.
Knowing that Holloway relies heavily on establishing momentum and forcing opponents back with volume and relentlessness, Volkanovski constantly got off first, compromised Holloway’s lead leg with nonstop low kicks, and answered any incursion into the pocket with heavy return fire. Though the striking numbers ended up fairly close, Holloway never got out of second gear, and “Blessed” lacks the one-punch power or fallback strategies to win that sort of fight.
Holloway wouldn’t be a champion if he couldn’t adapt and the success he found with body shots later in the fight hints at a potential avenue of victory, but it’s hard to see him finding a way around Volkanovski’s ability to muzzle his offense.
Especially when his entire training camp took place via Zoom.
With the skills to force Holloway into his preferred style of striking battle, the power to consistently win exchanges, and the cardio to keep up all night, Volkanovski has everything he needs to recreate his previous effort and establish himself as an undisputed champion. He once again tears up Holloway’s legs and shuts down the Hawaiian’s attempts to snowball en route to victory.
Prediction: Volkanovski via unanimous decision
135 lb. Championship: Petr “No Mercy” Yan vs. Jose “Junior” Aldo
If Jose Aldo wanted a fitting dance partner for what may be his final bid at gold, he found one. Yan does not come to wrestle or potshot from the outside; he’ll give Aldo the sort of close-quarters slugfest the former Featherweight emperor so desperately tried to coax out of Marlon Moraes last time out. The question, then, is whether Aldo still has what it takes to duke it out with one of the most fearsome bruisers the Bantamweight division has to offer.
For my money, the answer is “no.”
It’s been years since we’ve seen the leg-destroying dynamo that ruled the roost in the WEC; the UFC incarnation of Aldo largely relied upon low-output boxing until his losses to Max Holloway produced a nasty brawler that overwhelmed Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano. If that’s the Aldo we see on Saturday night, a “Scarface” willing to abandon his ramrod jab and slick head movement in favor of a war, he’s doomed. Yan is simply too powerful and too adept at finding openings for Aldo to succeed in a high-octane scrap.
Things get even worse for Aldo when you consider how much mileage he’s accrued over the years and how unproven his conditioning is at Bantamweight; while he looked fine after three rounds with Moraes, “Magic” only really pushed the pace in the first five minutes. Yan, who lands over 5.6 strikes every 60 seconds, is a whole different level of exhausting to deal with.
I see this going a lot like the Holloway debacles; Aldo may or may not try to keep things technical early, but he’ll start swinging for the fences before long. This will prove a losing effort against a younger, less weathered striker who pushes a pace that “Junior” simply can’t match. Expect a couple rounds of mayhem before Yan levels the fading legend.
Prediction: Yan via third-round technical knockout
115 lbs.: “Thug” Rose Namajunas vs. Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade
As amusing and generally nonsensical as the phrase “they were winning until they lost” is, there’s really no other way to describe Namajunas’ first fight with Andrade. She fought Andrade just about as perfectly as possible for a round and a half, constantly picking her off with long-range striking and holding her own in the wrestling while threatening with submissions.
Then Andrade drove her head through the canvas and undid all of that good work.
To be clear, I don’t mean to denigrate Andrade’s accomplishment, only to establish that Namajunas both knows and can execute the gameplan needed to blunt Andrade’s assault. That Andrade managed to beat her anyway is a testament to the Brazilian’s ability.
I’m not sure how much faith I’d put in her doing it again, though. Namajunas has had more than a year to refine her gameplan, while Andrade’s failure to adjust after her whooping from Joanna Jedrzejczyk suggests that we won’t see any significant evolution on her part even with the Zhang Weili. “Bate Estaca” can almost certainly expect fewer vulnerabilities to exploit, especially with only three rounds to work with.
Andrade’s monstrous strength could still carry her to victory, especially if she goes all-in on racking up takedowns and top control time, but Namajunas’ distance management and the persistent threat of her armbar make even that plan prohibitively hazardous. Namajanas gets her revenge, peppering Andrade from outside the range of the Brazilian’s haymakers en route to a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Namajunas via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Amanda Ribas vs. “12 Gauge” Paige VanZant
If the UFC wants to use VanZant’s slick armbar finish of Rachael Ostovich to build her back into a credible contender, this is the wrong way to go about it.
“12 Gauge’s” legitimately solid clinch striking and ground-and-pound are held back by an unfortunate combination of limited distance striking, mediocre wrestling, and an inability to safely enter the pocket. To make up for this, she’s pathologically aggressive in pursuit of the clinch, where she can rack up damage or work for takedowns. Stronger takedown artists can and have exploited this linear, predictable approach, and Ribas absolutely fulfills that criteria.
To make matters worse for VanZant, she can’t rely on scrambling her way to a finish the way she did her last time out. Ribas had zero issues on the ground with the enormously credentialed Mackenzie Dern, making it extremely likely that the Brazilian can recreate the successful grappling efforts Rose Namajunas and Michelle Waterson employed against VanZant.
The only potential saving grace for VanZant is that Ribas is a career Strawweight moving up to 125 pounds for the first time. If Ribas is unaccustomed to facing larger opposition, VanZant’s attrition-heavy style could potentially pay dividends. More likely, however, Ribas takes her down early and shreds her on the mat before that can become an issue.
Prediction: Ribas via first-round submission
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 251 fight card this weekend, starting with the ESPN+/Fight Pass “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard balance on ESPN+/ESPN at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 251: “Usman vs. Masvidal” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.