Bellator 198: “Fedor vs. Mir” takes place at Allstate Arena in Rosemont, Ill., this weekend (Sat., April 28, 2018) as an old Pride FC legend returns to Bellator after being finished by Matt Mitrione last year in New York. To return to his winning ways, though, he’ll have to face another former Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) fighter — and former champion — Frank Mir in the night’s main event. No matter who wins, only one man can advance in the Heavyweight Grand Prix.
Let’s break it down:
265 lbs.: Fedor Emelianenko (36-5, 1 NC) vs. Frank Mir (18-11)
Last year, I predicted that Matt Mitrione would knockout Fedor Emelianenko in the first round. After the obligatory self pat on the back that comes with nailing that result, I have to admit it wasn’t hard to see that outcome. Mitrione has been improving ever since leaving UFC, while Fedor’s best days are well behind him. His drawing power is not as yet diminished, though. The mere mention of the word “Fedor” sparks interest in even the most casual of mixed martial arts (MMA) fans. The reputation he earned as the long-reigning Pride FC Heavyweight champion in the 2000’s has made him the bankable star every promoter wants.
Mir is in a much more difficult position than his opponent. He got knocked out twice in 2016 — once by Mark Hunt and once by USADA for an anti-doping violation from the fight. He tried to blame eating Kangaroo meat for his problems to no avail, earning a two-year suspension from fighting. Thankfully for Mir, the suspension was retroactive to the date of his test failure, so when he signed with Bellator in 2017 he knew he’d be eligible to fight again by April 2018, hence why this fight was made. The problem is that he now has to prove himself all over again after a long, two-year layoff from combat sports.
The good news for Mir is that of the two men he has several considerable advantages on paper. He’s younger than Emelianenko (38 to 41), he’s taller (6’3” to 5’11.5”) and has a longer reach (79” to 74.5”). It can’t be forgotten that Mir is a two time UFC Heavyweight champion, once submitted Brock Lesnar, and a two year layoff may actually have been hugely beneficial for his physical and mental health. It also can’t be forgotten that Mir has lost six out of his last eight fights, and Fedor is looking really jacked for this fight. Even with his questionable win over Fabio Maldonado on the books, Fedor’s only lost one fight dating back to 2011. I sense a hunger in Emelianenko to not have his career be defined by a loss to Mitrione. From Mir I sense nothing other than one more payday.
Final prediction: Fedor Emelianenko wins via technical knockout in round two
145 lbs.: Emmanuel Sanchez (16-3) vs. Sam Sicilia (16-8)
“El Matador” Emmanuel Sanchez is on a great roll right now. He’s won three straight fights, six out of his last seven overall, and his lone loss in that stretch is a split decision against Daniel Weichel. He’s primed and ready to snatch a Featherweight title shot against Patricio Freire. Standing in the way of that is former UFC star Sam Sicilia, who snapped a three fight losing streak in his Bellator debut last December. Sanchez has been dogged by bad weight cuts before, and the only reason he doesn’t catch more flack for it is because he keeps winning. The only things standing in his way of earning a title shot are coming in under 146.9 and finishing Sicilia in spectacular fashion.
The numbers all line up in Sanchez favor on the tale of the tape here, including a four inch reach advantage (71” to 67”) which will enable Sanchez to throw his right hand at a comfortable distance. It’s even better news that Sicilia fashions himself a brawler and has earned eight of 16 wins by knockout. If he tries to play that game with Sanchez he is figuratively and literally playing into Duke Roufus’ hands. Once “Korean Superboy” Doo Ho Choi knocked him out in 2015, we had all the proof we needed that a more disciplined and harder hitting striker could answer any pressure that Sicilia could bring. His inability to finish a slumping Marcos Galvao in his debut is the icing on that cake.
Final prediction: Emmanuel Sanchez wins via unanimous decision
188 lbs.: Rafael Lovato Jr. (7-0) vs. Gerald Harris (25-5)
Lovato Jr. is undefeated (7-0) in MMA, which seems like a small number to the uninitiated, but he’s the second American to ever win a world jiu-jitsu championship (B.J. Penn was the first, and there have been others since). I’m giving the slight edge to Lovato based on that and the fact that he’s been training for this fight from the beginning, while Harris is coming back from his second retirement in MMA to take this bout at a Catchweight on very late notice. He stands 5’11” with a 77.5” reach so not only is he coming in late but giving up size to Lovato at 6’3” with the exact same reach. Unless he can double leg Lovato for one of his famous knockout slams it’s not going his way and even then he’d probably get caught by guillotine.
Final prediction: Rafael Lovato Jr. wins via submission in round one
170 lbs.: Neiman Gracie (7-0) vs. Javier Torres (10-3)
Speaking of a jiu-jitsu pedigree I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. Neiman Gracie has international medals in every category from open-weight to super Heavyweight, and Javier Torres has four submissions against four guys I’ve never heard of — and none of those are more recent than Oct. 2014. If Gracie gets a double leg, a leg trip or a judo throw and puts Torres on the mat, he’s in trouble immediately. Gracie will slither his way like a python up Torres’ body until he gets that neck.
Final prediction: Neiman Gracie wins via submission (rear–naked choke) in first round
175 lbs.: Dillon Danis (pro debut) vs. Kyle Walker (2-4)
If you love Brazilian jiu-jitsu this is certainly the card for you. Danis may be as famous for being a friend of Conor McGregor as anything else, but he gets the chance to finally put his money where his mouth is against Kyle Walker. There’s no point in beating around the bush here — they found a body to throw in front of Danis. Walker can at least be sanctioned to compete by virtue of having six pro fights, so he can defend himself intelligently in the cage, but at 2-4 with multiple losses by submission it’s not clear he’s good at doing so. They are feeding him to the wolves … and Danis damn well better feast.
Final prediction: Dillon Danis wins via submission (armbar)
That’s a wrap!
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