Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) makes its second appearance in Russia with “Overeem vs. Oleinik” tomorrow (Sat., April 20, 2019), its latest mixed martial arts (MMA) fight card on ESPN+. Saint Petersburg’s Yubileyny Sports Palace will see Alistair Overeem take on Aleksei Oleinik in a matchup that features the most combined fights in promotional history. Overeem was originally slated to take on Alexander Volkov, but USADA did its thing and well, in came the cavalry.
In the co-main event, Lightweight dark horse Islam Makhachev gives elite prospect Arman Tsarukyan a trial by fire. Makhachev has won five of six inside the Octagon, while Tsarukyan has won his last 12.
You can check out the “Prelims” predictions for this card here and here, plus some odds and betting analysis here.
Shall we?
265 lbs.: Alistair Overeem vs. Aleksei Oleinik
Alistair “The Demolition Man” Overeem
Record: 44-17 (1 NC) | Age: 36 | Betting line: -240
Wins: 22 KO/TKO, 17 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 13 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’4“ | Reach: 80” | Stance: Orthodox/Switch
Significant striking accuracy: 442 of 605 (73%) | Takedown attempts: 3 of 13 (31%)
Current Ranking: No. 7 | Last fight: TKO win over Sergey Pavlovich
Aleksei “The Boa Constrictor” Oleinik
Record: 57-11-1 | Age: 41 | Betting line: +200
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 45 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 5 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 80” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant striking accuracy: 138 of 282 (49%) | Takedown attempts: 8 of 23 (39%)
Current Ranking: No. 9 | Last fight: Submission win over Mark Hunt
Here we have a dichotomy: the division’s most weirdly inconsistent fighter against its most weirdly consistent. Alistair Overeem can masterfully dismantle Junior dos Santos one day and then try slugging it out with Francis Ngannou the next, while Oleinik just keeps finding the submission despite being old, slow, and not very good at wrestling.
Even considering all that, though, Overeem looks to have every advantage here. Oleinik doesn’t have the takedown prowess to bring Overeem to the mat, isn’t aggressive or powerful enough to make the Dutchman lose his composure, and doesn’t have the striking craft to get through the “Econoreem” potshots.
Oleinik will basically be forced to spend quite a bit of time in the clinch if he wants to take it to the mat, and for all that Overeem’s game has changed throughout the years, the last thing you want to do is clinch with him. Even if Oleinik does take it to the mat, Overeem has never tapped to a submission; the “submission” loss on his record came from tapping to strikes against Ricardo Arona in 2006.
There’s just no real way for Oleinik to win this unless he can clip Overeem’s chin, which is possible but not something to rely on. Expect the Dutchman to pick Oleinik apart at range until he’s gassed enough for Overeem to safely pour on the hurt.
Final prediction: Overeem via second-round knockout
155 lbs.: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Islam Makhachev
Record: 16-1 | Age: 27 | Betting line: -370
Wins: 3 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 70.5” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant striking accuracy: 101 of 166 (61%) | Takedown attempts: 13 of 15 (87%)
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission win over Kajan Johnson
Arman Tsarukyan
Record: 13-1 | Age: 22 | Betting line: +310
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’9“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Striking accuracy: N/A | Takedown attempts: N/A
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Knockout win over Felipe Olivieri
Picture this: you’re a UFC matchmaker. On one hand, you’ve got Makhachev, who’s won four straight and was briefly booked against Francisco Trinaldo in what would have been an excellent bit of matchmaking. On the other, you’ve got Tsarukyan, a 22-year-old phenom riding a 12-fight winning streak.
Why on Earth would you pit them against each other? And why would you make it the co-main event?
Really, the only explanation I can think of is UFC’s passive-aggressively shafting Makhachev for his role in the UFC 229 brawl. The man should be fighting ranked contenders, while Tsarukyan should be fighting someone like Yancy Medeiros, Drew Dober, or Joaquim Silva.
The rub is that, while Tsarukyan likely has a better shot than the odds would suggest, this is just a horrific style matchup for him. He’s an adept chain wrestler with a developing striking game to back it up, but I just don’t see him outgrappling a battle-tested beast like Makhachev. Unless Tsarukyan can land one of his nasty spinning back kicks, Makhachev will overpower him in every close-quarter engagement.
My hope is that Tsarukyan treats this loss as a learning experience; he’s a great fighter with huge potential. He just has the misfortune of fighting someone who does the same things he does, only better. Makhachev outgrapples him for 15 entertaining minutes.
Final prediction: Makhachev via unanimous decision
To see the rest of the UFC Saint Petersburg fight card click here.