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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will deliver its UFC 240: “Holloway vs. Edgar” pay-per-view (PPV) event tomorrow night (Sat., July 27, 2019) from inside Rogers Arena in Edmonton, Ontario, Canada, headlined by the five-round featherweight title fight between Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar.
Before “Blessed” puts his 145-pound title on the line against the former lightweight champion, Cris Cyborg will try to prove she’s just as dangerous as she’s always been — despite her recent knockout loss to Amanda Nunes — against venerable up-and-comer Felicia Spencer, a legit featherweight with five finishes in seven wins.
Those are the only two bouts on the UFC 240 fight card that are worth paying for, so I’m not sure how many new subscribers UFC and ESPN+ should expect this weekend in “The Big E.” Nevertheless, we’ll break down all five for the purposes of this column. It’s either that or I can go back to writing about bagel bullies and cat shit.
Onward and upward!
145 lbs.: UFC Featherweight Champion Max “Blessed” Holloway (20-4) vs. Frankie “The Answer” Edgar (23-6-1)
It had been so long since Max Holloway was defeated, I was beginning to think it was not possible. Then “Blessed” got greedy for gold and decided to try his luck at 155 pounds, where he quickly realized that a career at lightweight requires a lightweight body. A lot of fighters believe moving up a division equates to not cutting weight; but in reality, it means building a bigger, stronger frame, something Dustin Poirier used to his advantage when they went to war at UFC 236. How we measure that loss for Holloway when looking at his return to featherweight will be tricky, but may also hold the key to understanding what sort of fighter we should expect tomorrow night in Edmonton.
Let’s start with the obvious: Holloway’s one of the premiere strikers at 145 pounds. Striking is not just about pumping the jab, or throwing great combos. It’s about footwork, pressure, head movement, and about a dozen other variables. “Blessed” has mastered them all and what makes him so dangerous is his willingness to engage. You won’t see the Hawaiian pop in and pop out. You will instead see him pop in and pop-pop-pop, duck under or feint, then pop-pop-pop some more. Brian Ortega came into their five-round headliner having brutally finished Edgar via uppercut and Holloway gave zero fucks. He jumped into the fray and let his hands go, eventually turning “T-City” into Hamburger Helper.
That doesn’t mean he’s going to run away with this thing. Edgar is a bit bouncier in the pocket and holds a comparable pedigree while boasting pretty fast hands. His striking is more choreographed than the naturally fluid Holloway, but he’s no less dangerous. And despite giving up five inches in height, “The Answer” surrenders just one inch in reach. Unfortunately, none of those tools were enough to dethrone Jose Aldo, whereas “Blessed” beat (and finished) “Junior” in back-to-back fights. If Edgar could not beat Aldo or Ortega, how can I confidently pick him to beat Holloway?
I can’t.
Edgar is a fantastic wrestler and has used his mat skills to get out of trouble against heavy hitters like Jeremy Stephens, but Holloway has outstanding takedown defense. Critics will point to the fact that Poirier got him to the ground, as did Ortega, while also leaving out the fact that “Diamond” was 1-8 in takedown attempts, compared to 2-11 for “T-City.” Those are hardly statistics to be bragging about and I would anticipate similar numbers for Edgar. It’s not like the Jersey shore native has Khabib Nurmagomedov’s top game, either, so if Holloway hits the floor, I expect him to get right back up.
Edgar deserves all the accolades he’s gotten in his career and I don’t even have a problem with him getting a title shot. I just don’t see where he wins this fight. The decade-younger Holloway can match “The Answer” in cardio, has more dynamic striking, will neutralize the wrestling attack, and dodge, block, or eat most (if not all) of Edgar’s power shots. The challenger won’t go quietly of course, and is sure to have his moments, but this will go all five rounds and likely end in a sweep on the judges’ scorecards.
Welcome home, Max.
Prediction: Holloway def. Edgar by unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (20-2, 1 NC) vs. Felicia “FeeNom” Spencer (7-0)
I know that in MMA we’re supposed to abandon ship when a fighter loses and claim they were “exposed” before nitpicking every win that came before it, but that might be a tall order for a combatant with the resume of Cristiane Justino. It also helps that Amanda Nunes is a fucking killer, so it’s not like “Cyborg” lost a step and got laced by Tonya Evinger, or some other bloated bantamweight with nothing to lose. Justino inexplicably neglected her boxing, used effectively to outpoint Holly Holm, and got into a bar fight with “Lioness,” who is not only powerful, but strikes with laser-like precision. The former champ knew it the second she regained her wits and has been calling for a rematch ever since her stunning UFC 232 upset, despite claims to the contrary from always-honest UFC President Dana White.
She probably won’t get it. This is the final fight on Justino’s UFC contract and Scott Coker, her previous boss under the Strikeforce banner, will offer a handsome compensation package and quite frankly, a less toxic work environment. That’s unlikely to impact Justino’s UFC 240 motivation, as fighting is her life and not some springboard to Hollywood, so she will treat this fight as if it’s the key to getting a do-over with Nunes. That’s bad news for Felicia Spencer, a young and very talented submission specialist who already disposed of another top featherweight in Megan Anderson.
Spencer is 7-0 as a pro with five finishes and does her best work when she can muscle her opponents to the ground and outgrapple them. Trying to muscle Justino, who is built like a brick shithouse and punches like one too, is a fool’s errand. I talked about “Cyborg” needing to avoid the savage brawl-for-all style that was easy to get away with earlier in her career; however, this fight may be an exception. I don’t want to say Spencer’s hands are garbage; they aren’t, but she’s no Nunes and anyone not named Nunes who has tried to stand and bang with Justino has been buried in place.
“Cyborg” is not immune to the takedown. Evinger got her south, as did Yana Kunitskaya, but the Brazilian has an underrated ground game and let’s face it, when you are strong as she is, it’s easy to defend submission attempts. Let’s just hope she doesn’t get lazy and give up her back in a mad scramble to return to the feet. Outside of that, or some unforeseen boneheaded move, this fight is likely to resemble most other “Cyborg” fights. Spencer will come out game, get a taste of the power, then get walked and stalked amid a hail of Brazilian bombs, ultimate wilting under the pressure somewhere late in the opening frame.
Prediction: Justino def. Spencer by technical knockout
170 lbs.: Geoff “Handz of Steel” Neal (11-2) vs. Niko “The Hybrid” Price (13-2, 1 NC)
Geoff Neal kind of came out of nowhere, which is not a knock on Dana White’s “Contender Series,” I just didn’t pay much attention to him after he snagged a first-round finish back in 2017. That was clearly a dumb decision on my part (one of many, I assure you), as “Handz of Steel” has been flawless in the three fights that followed, with two of them ending quite violently. Still only 28, he’s a legitimate threat to the Top 10 if he can continue his upward trajectory, fueled by some of the better striking we’ve seen at welterweight over the last few years. At least for someone with just three fights in UFC.
On the other hand, I think most of us have already known just how dangerous Niko Price can be when he’s firing on all cylinders — and even when he’s not, as we learned in the Randy Brown fight. I’m not sure what you would call his style … I know he’s billed as “The Hybrid,” suggesting he’s well versed in all combat sports disciplines, but his most potent weapons are his power and unpredictability. Price is not unlike Tony Ferguson, minus all of that weird talk about Tiramisu and champ shit. It’s hard to prepare for a fighter like Price and even more difficult to adjust on the fly, something past opponents have tried to do after getting a taste of his knockout power.
I understand why Neal might be the favorite in this fight. He’s more technical and certainly a more polished striker with both poise and precision. But -345 against +285? C’mon … Neal isn’t even ranked in the Top 15. I know Price went down in flames against Abdul Razak Alhassan last September, but let’s not pretend Neal wasn’t toe-tagged by Kevin Holland under the XKO banner in 2017, which isn’t exactly ancient history. The safe bet here would be “Handz of Steel” by decision, but Price has too many intangibles. I would not be surprised to see “The Hybrid” land a power shot somewhere late in the fight, thanks in part to Neal being up on the scorecards and getting a little too relaxed.
Prediction: Price def. Neal by technical knockout
155 lbs.: Olivier “The Canadian Gangster” Aubin-Mercier (11-4) vs. Arman “Ahalkalakets” Tsarukyan (13-2)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier came out of TUF: “Nations” Finale as one of the more promising Canadian prospects in recent years. And why not? The Judo black belt has an outstanding submission game and fights in the southpaw stance, a combination he put to good use in commanding performances against solid veterans like Drew Dober and Evan Dunham, among others. But his Octagon debut was back in 2014 and after five years of competition, “The Canadian Gangster” is not even ranked in the Top 15. I’m sure back-to-back losses to Alexander Hernandez and Gilbert Burns did not help his cause, but he should be much farther along than he is.
While the same ranking argument applies to Arman Tsarukyan, the Russian rookie is just 22 years old and has but one fight under the UFC banner, a decision loss to the once-beaten (and No. 15-ranked) Islam Makhachev. That’s a pretty brutal fight to draw in your Octagon debut and he performed admirably, though you don’t get any points for losing. Tsarukyan is also about as well balanced as they come, splitting 10 finishes between knockout and submission at five apiece. I typically don’t put much stock in regional wins, and no question Tsarukyan has whopped his fair share of Russian rejects, but he’s also put the hurt on established UFC veterans like Junior Assuncao and Takenori Sato. Not bad for a kid his age.
This fight boils down to grappling. Aubin-Mercier has improved his stand up and is certainly not lost on his feet, but I don’t think he presents the kind of threat that would neutralize or even stop a phenom like Tsarukyan. That will require “The Canadian Gangster” to rely on his Judo skills, formidable in their own right, though I can’t imagine Tsarukyan will give him the freedom to operate at will. With his UFC debut out of the way, I expect this to be a showcase fight for the up-and-coming Russian. He probably won’t get the finish — Aubin-Mercier is too damn tough — but I don’t expect this to be a close fight, either. Welcome to the future.
Prediction: Tsarukyan def. Aubin-Mercier by unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Krzysztof Jotko (20-4) vs. Marc-Andre “Power Bar” Barriault (11-2)
Every time UFC signs a European fighter I think it’s solely to have enough talent to populate overseas fight cards, and not to develop a potential contender. I guess the same can be said for some of the Canadian signees and this PPV curtain-jerker, on paper, provides examples of both. Krzysztof Jotko seemed to be the exception to the rule, racking up five straight wins after a 2014 loss to Magnus Cedenblad, but then he took that momentum and threw it in the trash with three consecutive losses, two of which saw him get put away in spectacular fashion. I’m not sure all is forgiven with a rebound win over the unheralded Alen Amedovski, but I guess that remains to be seen, based on what we get from the Pole in tomorrow night’s fight.
Marc-Andre Barriault was signed earlier this year to a considerable amount of hype, and rightly so, as “Power Bar” lived up to his nickname with a bevy of brutal knockouts on the local circuit. But all that glitters is not gold, and the 29 year-old bruiser also posted four split decisions during that same span, which may explain why his Andrew Sanchez loss at UFC Ottawa went all three rounds. With zero submissions in 13 professional fights, I don’t expect this contest to unfold on the ground at any point during their 15-minute slugfest. I think the more important question is whose chin holds up when the leather starts to fly and the answer, much to the chagrin of the JUST BLEED’rs, is both of them.
Prediction: Jotko def. Barriault by split decision
There you have it.
For much more on this weekend’s UFC 240 PPV event click here.