UFC 296: Ferguson v Pimblett — Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

This weekend (Sat., Aug. 3, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, for UFC Abu Dhabi. The non-PPV events in recent weeks have been missing a little something, but this card is a clear exception.

Indeed, Cory Sandhagen is about as battle-tested as contenders come at 135 pounds, while Umar Nurmagomedov might just be the next champion to come from Dagestan — it’s a great main event. Better yet, the rest of the main card fights are highly intriguing and likely to be very fun, which is a great combination.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

Bantamweight: Marlon Vera (+145) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (-175)

Best Win for Vera? Sean O’Malley For Figueiredo? Brandon Moreno
Current Streak: Vera lost his last bout, while Figueiredo has won two in a row since moving to 135-pounds
X-Factor: Vera was absolutely demolished in his last fight
How these two match up: I have high expectations for a full-on Bantamweight banger.

Look at those betting odds and tell me public belief in Vera isn’t at an all-time low currently. Unfortunately, that’s what happens when you play the role of punching bag in a UFC title fight. Vera is incredibly tough and viciously opportunistic, but fight fans are a little fed up with his reactive style.

Figueiredo, meanwhile, has been performing really well as a Bantamweight. The former Flyweight kingpin is still hitting with a ton of power, and his wrestling has held up very well against bigger opponents. He’s quickly marching up the ladder and could be just a couple fights from a title shot.

I’m a little torn here. On one hand, it’s been a few fights since Vera has looked particularly good in the Octagon. At the same time, Figueiredo is 36 years of age, and I’m not sold on the idea of “Daico” as a genuine title threat in his new division. There’s also the issue that Figueiredo usually wins via finish, while Vera is functionally immortal.

Ultimately, the fact that this fight is 15 minutes rather than 25 has me siding with the Brazilian. Between his power punches and takedowns, it feels likely that Figueiredo can snag at least two of the three rounds. If Vera does rally late, well, Figueiredo is at least plenty comfortable in a dog fight.

Prediction: Figueiredo via decision

Welterweight: Tony Ferguson (+470) vs. Michael Chiesa (-650)

Best Win for Ferguson? Rafael dos Anjos For Chiesa? Beneil Dariush
Current Streak: Ferguson has lost a record seven in a row, while Chiesa has lost his last three
X-Factor: Ferguson is shot
How these two match up: It probably won’t be boring, but I’m not looking forward to this one and will keep the prediction short.

Ferguson was one of the best Lightweights of all time. Nearly a natural force of creative violence, Ferguson broke elite opposition with scary consistency, battering opponents into bloody pulps. Alas, that was many years and many bad losses ago. Chiesa, meanwhile, has also looked rather ineffective in his current losing streak, but at least he’s still in good athletic form and was getting beaten up by top talent.

I don’t get why we’re booking Ferguson anymore, let alone at Welterweight. If he has to fight again in the Octagon, he should be booked against some other aging, unranked Lightweight who is barely on the roster. He’s never been big enough for 170 pounds … and Chiesa was ranked not that long ago.

Nobody would be happier than me if I’m wrong, but all logic suggests “The Maverick” dominates on the floor to an eventual strangle.

Prediction: Chiesa via submission

Women’s Strawweight: Mackenzie Dern (-125) vs. Loopy Godinez (+105)

Best Win for Dern? Virna Jandiroba For Goodinez? Tabatha Ricci
Current Streak: Dern has lost two straight, while Goodinez lost her last bout
X-Factor: Dern took a lot of damage in her last two fights
How these two match up: I’m expecting a bit of chaos.

Dern’s approach to fighting has ebbed and flowed, but her overall issue remains the same: she has the best jiu-jitsu in the division but has no way to consistently use it against top competition. She recently returned to her boxing coach, Jason Parillo, so perhaps that will help shore up her hands once more, but wrestling remains an area in need of development.

Godinez has almost the exact opposite issue. She’s quite technical everywhere, but the Mexican talent doesn’t really have one standout issue. In her defeats, more specialist opponents have been able to force her to fight in their preferred skill set.

This is a good match up, and I expect Godinez to win a majority of the exchanges. Is that enough to win the fight though? Dern is so much more dangerous, a much more severe finishing threat. Godinez might do great work for four minutes then end up fighting off deep submissions for the final 60 seconds and still lose the round … if not her arm.

Ultimately, it takes a pretty elite, Top Five opponent to defeat Dern, and even then it’s not guaranteed. Returning to Parillo was a necessary step, but even without that vote of confidence, Godinez is just a much less threatening hitter than Amanda Lemos or Jessica Andrade.

At some point, Dern’s jiu-jitsu excellence will come into play, and she’ll absolute take over when that happens.

Prediction: Dern via decision

Lightweight: Joel Alvarez (-162) vs. Elves Brener (+135)

Best Win for Alvarez? Thiago Moises For Brener? Guram Kutateladze
Current Streak: Alvarez won his last bout, whereas Brener suffered his first UFC defeat
X-Factor: Will Alvarez make weight?
How these two match up: Inject this match up straight into my veins.

Alvarez doesn’t fight terribly often, but it’s always must-watch stuff when he’s in the Octagon. The massive Spanish Lightweight hits very hard and strikes in creative fashion, and he’s quite excellent at snatching submissions from failed takedown attempts. What’s so fun here is that Brener is also a knockout artist and submissions fighter himself! Wrestling is the weakest aspect for both, while brutalizing their opposition in opportunistic moments is a shared strength.

The big question to me in this fight is whether or not Alvarez can finish his opponent. Early on, he’s such a monster because of that size advantage and his aggressive style. Brener is not a defensive wizard or evasive fighter, meaning he’s probably going to throw down with Alvarez right away and lose those exchanges.

Does he lose them badly enough to get stopped? If not, Brener is primed for a rally in the second half of the fight. Alvarez is accustomed to quick finishes, and there’s probably a reason he’s never won a decision in his pro career. The combination of a huge weight cut and pedal-to-the-floor fighting style means that Alvarez isn’t built to succeed in the late rounds.

Brener is durable and vicious for all 15 minutes. If he makes it to the third, he’ll pay back Alvarez for every shot “El Fenomeno” landed early on, it’s just a question of making it that deep into the fight.

I think the Brazilian can do it. He’s never been finished, and between the two, he’s the better wrestler. A brief takedown might help him survive a hairy moment or two, and once the momentum does shift to his side, he’ll capitalize violently.

Prediction: Brener via knockout

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2024: 27-19 (3)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Abu Dhabi fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ABC/ESPN (simulcast on ESPN+) at 3 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Abu Dhabi: “Sandhagen vs. Umar” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.