UFC 292: Sterling v O’Malley — Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images

This weekend (Sat., March 30, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., for UFC Atlantic City. A funny thing happens when UFC takes the show on the road and out of the Apex: the cards are better! I’m not trying to sell UFC AC as pay-per-view (PPV) quality, but it’s got a main event featuring two Top 5-ranked fighters, a co-main event certified banger, and one former champion to round out the main card.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

Middleweight: Chris Weidman (+215) vs. Bruno Silva (-305)

Best Win for Weidman? Anderson Silva For Silva? Brad Tavares
Current Streak: Both have lost two in a row
X-Factor: Weidman’s legs are toast
How these two match up: I have no idea why the oddsmakers have such confidence in Silva when I have zero confidence in either.

Weidman — a former Middleweight champion — ain’t looking great, true. He’s still got knockout power and a very decorated ground game, but Weidman is looking more fragile with age and gets tired earlier in fights — classic symptoms of a stellar athlete slowing down with age and injury.

Silva is five years younger, but perhaps even more inconsistent. How does a man give Alex Pereira real trouble on the feet then immediately make Gerald Meerschaert look like Floyd Mayweather? Truly baffling stuff from the Brazilian, who at his best is a fearsome knockout artist capable of Top 10 performances.

I truly, truly have no confidence either way here. There are obvious paths for victory for each man, and there will be plenty of chances for either to self-destruct. I would not in any way advise betting on this contest.

In a nut shell, I could see Weidman wrestling Silva and dominating from top position — Andrew Sanchez scored seven takedowns against “Blindado.” Simultaneously, I could see Weidman doing some early work on his feet, finding some success, and then get blasted into a deep sleep out of nowhere.

Weidman isn’t that hard to knockout (six knockout losses in seven defeats), while Silva is easy to submit (seven submissions losses in 10 defeats). A finish is possible for either side at any point …

Might as well go with the fighter whose legs don’t have a history of exploding?

Prediction: Silva via knockout

Middleweight: Nursulton Ruziboev (-275) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+195)

Best Win for Ruziboev? Brunno Ferreira For Dumas? Cody Brundage
Current Streak: Ruziboev recently won his UFC debut, whereas Dumas has won two in a row
X-Factor: Dumas is still very young in his MMA career
How these two match up: This should be a pretty fun fight between newer Middleweight faces.

Ruziboev — 33-8-2 as a professional — has a ton of experience. He tends to win quickly or fade late, but a nasty combination of powerful range striking and slick grappling means that those early finishes are a viable way to go. Dumas, conversely, hasn’t been fighting that long but is a gifted athlete. If his technical game can continue catching up to his physical attributes, he could go a long way at 185 pounds.

This might be too much, too soon.

It takes a certain amount of defensive savvy to survive an experienced finisher like Ruziboev, who knows how to start quickly and get opponents out of the cage. While I like Dumas’ ability to win minute-to-minute exchanges here, it feels like a big connection or sudden takedown is going to land Dumas in a bad spot at some point in the first.

Prediction: Ruziboev via submission

Featherweight: Bill Algeo (-240) vs. Kyle Nelson (+175)

Best Win for Algeo? Alexander Hernandez For Nelson? Fernando Padilla
Current Streak: Both have won two in a row
X-Factor: Nelson has really come into his own in recent wins
How these two match up: A good Featherweight veterans match up.

Algeo fights are a lot of fun. He’s not the fastest nor most powerful man on the roster, but Algeo is an iron chin and throws a ton of strikes, which makes for an entertaining dynamic. He’s also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and capable wrestler.

Nelson’s UFC career started off with a 1-4-1 run that didn’t seem to spell much future success. The Canadian talent was given another chance, and since then, he thoroughly shut down two up-and-comers with his technical kickboxing. He seems to have settled his status as a UFC fighter, better understanding how he wins fights at this level.

Interestingly, Algeo seems likely to give Nelson the kind of fight he wins. Algeo isn’t an overwhelming wrestler, and he does most of his striking at distance, just as Nelson prefers. The elephant in the room is that Algeo works at a much higher rate than Nelson, which is a difficult trait to overcome since Nelson isn’t a particularly powerful hitter.

The question is this: can Nelson be accurate enough with his kicks and counter punches to slow Algeo down to his pace? I tend to think Algeo will tire out Nelson with his volume before that happens — and if one man is going to hurt the other — it feels more likely that “Senor Perfecto” is dropping the hammer.

Prediction: Algeo via decision

UFC Fight Night: Njokuani v Oleksiejczuk

Welterweight: Chidi Njokuani (-150) vs. Rhys McKee (+120)

Best Win for Njokuani? Marc-Andre Barriault For McKee? Jim Wallhead
Current Streak: Njokuani has lost three straight, while McKee lost his last bout
X-Factor: WTF is 6’3” jacked Njokuani doing dropping to Welterweight at 35 years of age?!?
How these two match up: I don’t quite get this one.

Yes, Njokuani lost three in a row at Middleweight, but size was not an issue in any of those fights. Twice, Njokuani fell apart because his opponents refused to go away after he landed nasty shots, and the other time a couple bad decisions cost him control time in a split decision. None of this indicates he’ll be more effective at Welterweight — he hasn’t made 170 pounds since 2016!

McKee, conversely, is still chasing his first UFC win. Dedicated fans may remember him as the English lad who Khamzat Chimaev ran through back in 2020 (watch highlights). Since then, he scored a Cage Warriors title. He’s best known for his kickboxing, but defensive wrestling has been his fatal flaw inside the Octagon.

Good thing Njokuani isn’t known for his wrestling at all! The short version of this prediction is that — if it’s not incredibly obvious by now — I don’t think Njokuani has any business at 170 pounds. He’s going to kill himself to make weight (if he even succeeds), meaning he’ll have about 90 seconds to knockout McKee before his body implodes.

McKee is a striker himself and is historically durable. If he survives the first couple minutes then takes the fight to Njokuani, he’s going to be able to put it on “Chidi Bang Bang.”

Prediction: McKee via knockout

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2024: 21-6 (2)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Atlantic City fight card right here, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN (simulcast on ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Atlantic City: “Blanchfield vs. Fiorot” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.