This weekend (Sat., June 8, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) hits the road to KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky., for UFC Louisville. In the main event, Middleweight’s forgotten elite contender, Jared Cannonier, looks to make a statement opposite French prospect, Nassourdine Imavov. In addition, Dominick Reyes hopes to end his losing streak, and Raul Rosas Jr. will hopefully make it to the cage this time opposite The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winner, Ricky Turcios.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

Bantamweight: Raul Rosas Jr. (-265) vs. Ricky Turcios (+190)

Best Win for Rosas Jr.? Jay Perrin For Turcios? Kevin Natividad
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Rosas Jr. is still 19!
How these two match up: I expect chaos.

Rosas Jr. made headlines by debuting inside the Octagon at a ridiculously young age and saying silly things to the media about fighting for the belt right away. The Christian Rodriguez loss was a bit of a reality check, but all the same, Rosas Jr. is a talented grappler with developing knockout power.

Turcios is TUF champion, a veteran with a good deal of experience who thrives in wild fights. Cardio is the name of Turcios’ game, as he’s happy to push a high pace wherever the fight goes, and he tends to do his best work in the latter half of grueling battles.

At the moment, the strengths and weaknesses of Rosas Jr. are well-known. Barring further development — obviously very possible at his age — “El Problema Nina” is a major handful early in fights. He storms out of the gate and absolutely sprints toward the finish, usually looking to take the back and wrangle the neck.

It’s not likely to be that easy against Turcios, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who’s been stopped just once in 15 fights. Turcios is an excellent scrambler, the type of difficult-to-hold-down athlete who can really frustrate wrestlers accustomed to dominating from top position. The question here is this: do you believe Rosas Jr. finishes Turcios inside five minutes? If not, he’s going to have a lot of trouble down the stretch.

Turcios loses the first frame, but that volume and activity edge takes over somewhere in the middle of the fight.

Prediction: Turcios via decision

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Middleweight: Brunno Ferreira (-280) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+200)

Best Win for Ferreira? Phil Hawes For Stoltzfus? Punahele Soriano
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Ferreira has yet to leave the first round in a UFC fight
How these two match up: I like to dunk on Middleweight, but Ferreira fights are always fun.

“The Hulk” showed more to his game than expected last time out. En route to knocking out Phil Hawes, the Brazilian prospect scored some surprisingly slick throws from the clinch, as well as a more defined kicking game … then he knocked him out with a big punch, which is what most were expecting.

Stoltzfus is also coming off a strong performance. He’s been technically skilled since the start of his UFC career, but that hasn’t always equated to wins. Against Soriano, he combined his talents well, avoiding the Hawaiians’ biggest punches and methodically working his way into takedowns.

It’s hard to back Stoltzfus even giving his recent improvement. The athleticism gap is just so massive. Ferreira is going to be hard to move around in terms of wrestling, and on the feet, his significant edges in speed and power seem likely to produce another early finish. There’s always a chance that Stoltzfus can extend the fight late and bring his technical abilities into play, but odds are he doesn’t get the chance.

Prediction: Ferreira via knockout

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Middleweight: Julian Marquez (-115) vs. Zach Reese (-105)

Best Win for Marquez? Sam Alvey For Reese? Eli Aranov
Current Streak: Marquez has lost two in a row, while Reese recently lost his UFC debut
X-Factor: Reese is only six fights deep into his professional career
How these two match up: See, this is the type of mediocrity I expect from Middleweight.

Marquez is technically mediocre in most ways. He makes up for it, however, by being large for the division and tough as nails. He also has a really nice inside dirty boxing game, though he doesn’t always have a path towards getting the fight to that range. Reese, meanwhile, hasn’t actually fought that much because all his bouts end inside a round. From what we’ve seen, he’s a powerful striker with a great build for the division, but it doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of depth to his game.

This is tough. On one hand, Marquez has beaten some good names over the years. He’s gritty and knows how to win fights against opposition a level above Reese. At the same time, Marquez looked downright uninspired against Marc-Andre Barriault, and his problems with making weight demonstrate a lack of professionalism that could be catching up at 34 years of age.

Still, Marquez can take a shot and keep fighting into the second. That seems like enough to overwhelm an opponent with so little experience against good fighters.

Prediction: Marquez via knockout

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Welterweight: Miguel Baeza (-175) vs. Punahele Soriano (+135)

Best Win for Baeza? Matt Brown For Soriano? Dusko Todorovic
Current Streak: Baeza has lost three straight, while Soriano has lost two in a row
X-Factor: This is Soriano’s first bout at 170 lbs.
How these two match up: Somebody is taking a nap.

Back in 2020, Baeza was a hot prospect on the rise, allegedly the next Jorge Masvidal. He showed some plus skills and great slickness in his 3-0 UFC start, true, but since then, we have unfortunately learned that Baeza’s defense isn’t great. He’s quite hittable, and fellow Welterweight sluggers have taken advantage.

Soriano’s story is similar. The heavy-handed Hawaiian started his UFC career with some big knockout wins, but his opponents quickly realized there isn’t much to his game besides a wide left hand swing. Is dropping 15 pounds a fix for a technical flaw? Not really.

Will it matter against Baeza though? He gets hit too much and is fighting a guy who hits really hard. At first glance, it sounds like a bad match up. I think, however, that he’ll be able to see those lefts coming. Soriano was able to make his one weapon style work (for a little while) at Middleweight because of his quickness and agility. Down a weight class, he’s going to look even more limited and not nearly as explosive with his overhand.

A scare or two should be expected, but I think Baeza returns to the win column here.

Prediction: Baeza via decision

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2024: 24-11 (2)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Louisville fight card right here, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN (simulcast on ESPN+) at 8 p.m. ET.

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