This weekend (Sat., May 11, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) hits the road to to Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Mo., for UFC St. Louis. Though initial responses to the main event between Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento were rather negative, the overall card has since come together to be better than expected. Joaquin Buckley hustling his way to the co-main event slot certainly helped, but all six of the main card fights appear to promise action or an early stoppage.

UFC St. Louis’ undercard leaves something to be desired outside of Slava Borshchev vs. Chase Hooper, but that’s not my responsibility here. Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

Light Heavyweight: Alonzo Menifield (+165) vs. Carlos Ulberg (-225)

Best Win for Menifield? Jimmy Crute For Ulberg? Jung Da-Un
Current Streak: Menifield is unbeaten in his last five fights, while Ulberg has won five in a row
X-Factor: It’s a big step up in competition for Ulberg
How these two match up: This one might not last long …

Menifield has a stupid amount of power in his fists, and the problem is that “Atomic” is well aware of it. He’s guilty of failing to set up his biggest swings or develop much of a game outside of hitting absurdly hard, but in his defense, it works more often than not. Ulberg is also consistently knocking out his opposition, but it doesn’t usually come down to pure force. The Kiwi kickboxer does really good work at managing distance, using his feints to get a read on his opponent, then timing counter shots — classic City Kickboxing stuff.

This is a really major jump in competition for Ulberg. Menifield may not be a perfect technician, but he’s ranked No. 11 in the world for a reason. He has the ability to threaten Ulberg with his huge punches and ability to close the distance suddenly, and his occasional takedown attempts could prove a factor as well.

He’s also a dog … and we’ve never seen Ulberg in a war of attrition.

At the same time, Ulberg is simply the better striker by a fair margin, and he also hits hard enough to hurt his opponent. He’ll have to avoid any huge mistakes, but Ulberg should find success in his attempt to break into the Top 15.

Prediction: Ulberg via decision

Lightweight: Carlos Diego Ferreira (+200) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (-280)

Best Win for Ferreira? Anthony Pettis For Rebecki? Roosevelt Roberts
Current Streak: Ferreira won his last bout, while Rebecki is 3-0 in the UFC
X-Factor: Ferreira is 39 years old
How these two match up: Good Lightweights rarely fail to deliver great fights.

Ferreira achieved a lot more than most expected. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace developed his striker and wrestling to become a fierce pressure fighter, which resulted in a quality six-fight win streak that pushed him into the Top 10. He’s since fallen down the ranks a bit, but Ferreira remains a very dangerous veteran in a stacked division.

Poland’s Rebecki is one of many serious Lightweight prospects. 19-1 as a professional, the fireplug of a wrestler has a dominating top game and heavy hands, traits which have combined for 16 finishes so far.

This is a massive test for Rebecki, definitely the toughest opponent of his career. It also feels like one he should pass. The Lightweight fireplug is a really physical talent, and his wrestling seems like the perfect antidote for Ferreira’s pressure and aggression. Historically, takedowns and top control is the best way to defeat the Brazilian, and that fits Rebecki’s typical game well.

The fight will get interesting if and when it goes late. Ferreira is in great shape and knows how to keep the scrambles going, and he’s tough as nails. A finish is unlikely, so Rebecki is going to have to deal with his foe for all 15 minutes.

Let’s see how he handles it.

Prediction: Rebecki via decision

Featherweight: Alex Caceres (+150) vs. Sean Woodson (-205)

Best Win for Caceres? Sergio Pettis For Woodson? Charles Jourdain
Current Streak: Caceres lost his last bout, while Woodson is unbeaten in his last five
X-Factor: Caceres has a significant jiu-jitsu edge
How these two match up: I’m expecting a fun fight.

Caceres has been a quality member of UFC’s roster for more than a decade now. He’s achieved rankings at various points both as a Bantamweight and Featherweight, and generally has fought really well in recent years. He’s a sneaky kickboxer with an underrated grappling game, but he doesn’t always have the wrestling necessary to implement his jiu-jitsu.

Woodson is a statistical anomaly, a 6’2” Featherweight who lives up to his “Sniper” nickname. A long-time boxer, Woodson establishes his jab better than most and can really make opponents miss thanks to his massive reach and quality footwork.

On the whole, I think Caceres is generally the better fighter here. He’s more well-rounded and has way more high-level experience. Unfortunately, it feels like a bad match up for “Bruce Leeroy.”

Caceres fights largely at the kickboxing range, which is where Woodson excels. Generally, it’s hard to get him out of that mode. It takes a big punch or really solid wrestling game — neither of which are Caceres’ strengths. Most likely, we got a kickboxing battle in which Woodson’s faster hands and sharper combinations make the slight difference.

Prediction: Woodson via decision

Heavyweight: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+140) vs. Robelis Despaigne (-185)

Best Win for Cortes-Acosta? Andrei Arlovski For Despaigne? Josh Parisian
Current Streak: Cortes-Acosta has won two in a row, whereas Despaigne recently won his UFC debut to improve to 5-0
X-Factor: Despaigne has almost no cage time
How these two match up: I wouldn’t count on this one seeing the third.

Cortes-Acosta has won four of his five Octagon bouts, establishing himself as a good boxer able to put numbers on his opponent. He’s not the heaviest handed man in the division, but there’s always a place for Heavyweights who can actually throw down for 15 full minutes. Despaigne, conversely, has an unknowable level of cardio. He’s never left the first round, and each of his last four wins lasted less than a minute combined! The Cuban Taekwondo Olympian is incredibly unproven, but obviously has serious potential as well.

So, this is the Heavyweight division. It’s important to keep your expectations measured. More than most any other class, we have seen plenty of hyped prospects exhausted or mentally broken when the going gets tough — it should almost be expected.

Is Cortes-Acosta the man to push Despaigne, however? I’m not really seeing it. That’ll probably take a wrestler with a brick jawline. Cortes-Acosta, conversely, is a striker facing a height and reach disadvantage who is going to engage a physically superior talent in his realm of strength.

It’s a big step up from Despaigne’s previous competition level, but one he seems likely to handle.

Prediction: Despaigne via knockout

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2024: 22-9 (2)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC St. Louis fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC St. Louis: “Lewis vs. Nascimento” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.