UFC Fight Night: Petrino v Bukauskas — Photo by Pedro Vilela/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

This weekend (Sat., Dec. 14, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla., for UFC Tampa. The final card of 2024 should be a fun one! The main event shifted at the last second, but now we have a chance of seeing Colby Covington flattened, so … could be worse! Elsewhere on the card, popular action fighters like Cub Swanson, Adrian Yanez and Joel Alvarez promise an electric show in front of a live audience.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main event:

Featherweight: Cub Swanson (+130) vs. Billy Quarantillo (-168)

Best Win for Swanson? Charles Oliveira For Quarantillo? Alexander Hernandez
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Swanson is 41 years old
How these two match up: Neither man has appeared at top form lately, but this should still be a fun scrap.

Since returning to 145 pounds after an ill-fated drop to Bantamweight, Swanson has fought twice and split a pair of very fun and competitive decisions. Even at this stage of his career, “Killer Cub” is still a fast boxer with considerable power and lots of tricks up his sleeve. Quarantillo, meanwhile, is a hard-nosed grinder, a solid kickboxer and wrestler who stands out from the pack because of his pace and aggression.

Interestingly, Quarantillo’s last performance was more concerning than Swanson’s recent work. He may be younger by five years, but “Billy Q” looked bad against Youssef Zalal in his last showing, walking into every single counter shot and getting fatigued quickly. Could it be that Quarantillo’s aggressive, straightforward style is catching up to him at 36, or is Zalal simply that good?

I’m inclined to think a mix of the two is the answer. So, can a diminished-but-still-with-it Quarantillo handle an old-but-still-crafty Swanson? I’m not convinced. Quarantillo relies quite a bit on his wrestling to win fights, and Swanson is still quite hard to pin down. As such, he’s going to have to strike with the more skilled and powerful kickboxer, relying on volume alone to outwork Swanson.

I’m not sure he has the defense to pull it off.

Prediction: Swanson via decision

Light Heavyweight: Vitor Petrino (-320) vs. Dustin Jacoby (+230)

Best Win for Petrino? Tyson Pedro For Jacoby? Maxim Grishin
Current Streak: Petrino lost his last bout, whereas Jacoby has lost two in a row
X-Factor: Petrino is a much better athlete
How these two match up: Prospect vs. veteran in the Light Heavyweight ranks.

Petrino has to be a little embarrassed to have his undefeated run go up in smoke at the hands of an Anthony Smith closed guard guillotine. The 27-year-old Brazilian is clearly a physical talent with some legitimate striking form, but diving into a choke definitely revealed there’s rough edges in need of smoothing. Jacoby would appear to be the perfect opponent to reveal more potential weaknesses (or strengths) in his game. The former professional kickboxer is reasonably solid everywhere but doesn’t tend to overwhelm opponents, which has produced some close and exciting fights across his current UFC run.

The problem with Jacoby’s game is that he doesn’t really have a way to stop more athletic opponents from running him over. He’s a better technician than Alonzo Menifield in every facet of MMA, for example, but he wasn’t able to punish the wild “Atomic” charges that were coming his direction. He would be winning most of a round, get clipped, and then end up down on the cards.

He’s facing a nearly 10 year age disadvantage here, and there’s no evidence he’ll have Smith’s sneaky submission game to bail him out. More likely, Petrino takes some jabs and low kicks until able to time something big, returning to the win column in style.

Prediction: Petrino via knockout

Bantamweight: Adrian Yanez (+140) vs. Daniel Marcos (-182)

Best Win for Yanez? Davey Grant For Marcos? … Davey Grant
Current Streak: Yanez returned to the win column last time out, whereas Marcos is unbeaten after four UFC fights
X-Factor: Can Marcos’ kicks halt Yanez’s boxing?
How these two match up: There’s no way the Bantamweights don’t deliver a banger.

Yanez is a nasty offensive boxer, which resulted in an early string of exciting victories. When pushed up the ladder against top talent, however, defensives issues in his approach were revealed. At 31 years of age, it’ll be very interesting to see whether or not Yanez can shore up the holes and live up to the hype of a couple years ago.

Marcos is a striker himself, but he does more work with his kicking game. Though unbeaten in the Octagon after four fights, a “No Contest” and highly debatable decision vs. Grant have slowed his momentum. Regardless, the Peruvian talent is certainly a fun fighter, high volume and dangerous.

It appears to me that the odds maker’s expect a replay of Yanez vs. Jonathan Martinez, in which “The Dragon” kicked Yanez’s leg to pieces and prevented him from firing in any combination. Range will indeed be the deciding factor — as is typically the case in boxer vs. kicker match ups — but I’m not so sure it’s going to be that easy.

Martinez may have flaws, but he’s the best low kicker in a division filled with excellent low kickers — Marcos isn’t quite so specialized. Other man have tried to low kick Yanez with far worse success in preventing his counters and forward combinations, and I expect Marcos to struggle to keep Yanez off him as well.

When Yanez lands a bit, he starts landing a lot quickly.

Prediction: Yanez via decision

Flyweight: Manel Kape (-345) vs. Bruno Silva (+275)

Best Win for Kape? Kai Asakura For Silva? Cody Durden
Current Streak: Kape lost his last bout, while Silva has won four straight
X-Factor: Kape sometimes forgets to throw punches
How these two match up: After the Mokaev incident, I’ve sworn to never get excited about a Kape fight again.

Still … this SHOULD be fun. Kape is an electric striker when he decides to engage, likely the fastest puncher in the division with considerable knockout power to boot. He’s very difficult to take or hold down, which should be a recipe for consistent success at the elite Flyweight level.

A jiu-jitsu black belt, Silva has been fighting professional since 2011. He’s on quite a tear, winning four consecutive “Performance of the Night” bonuses in four finish victories. He’s a dangerous puncher who excels on the floor as well, though getting held down has been a concern.

This reads as a very favorable match up for Kape. Silva doesn’t have the wrestling to drag him to the floor nor the quickness to win on the outside. Plus, he’s a naturally aggressive fighter. The likelihood of him trying to push forward and make something happen is high, which will ultimately play right into Kape’s hands.

The former RIZIN king returns to the win column here, perhaps setting up the Asakura rubber match?

Prediction: Kape via decision

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2024: 50-36 (3)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Tampa fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Tampa: “Covington vs. Buckley” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.