UFC Fight Night: Hernandez v Jackson — Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

This weekend (Sat., Aug. 10, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 95. What happens when an already bad card loses its co-main event? Not much, as it turns out, since the co-main event wasn’t much better than the rest of the card. Losing a second good fight the week of the event didn’t help either, but again, it’s hard to be too downtrodden when nobody was that excited in the first place.

Despite my general inclination to dunk on bad Heavyweight main events — and this one is quite bad! — I do actually believe these fights will be fun. There are genuinely interesting prospects on the card, just ones who should probably still be cutting their teeth on the undercard. Take it for what it is: UFC Vegas 95 will probably be a reasonably entertaining night of fights that don’t matter.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main event:

Bantamweight: Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le

Best Win for Gutierrez? Frankie Edgar For Le? Cody Peterson
Current Streak: Gutierrez lost his last bout, while Le debuts undefeated at 8-0
X-Factor: Le accepted this fight on fight week
How these two match up: Le is replacing Javid Basharat, and it probably won’t go well.

I understand Gutierrez just got mopped up by Song Yadong, but like, Song Yadong is really good! It wasn’t all that long ago that Gutierrez put together an eight-fight unbeaten streak to advance into the rankings, routinely kicking the crap out of his opponents. Le, conversely, has earned his stripes competing for LFA, which is as good as it gets in regards to regional promotions. He’s a solid kickboxer with good jiu-jitsu, but he’s facing a massive step up in competition.

This feels like one of those cost-of-entry debuts. Le wants to be on the UFC roster, so he’s basically agreeing to get his lead leg kicked to pieces on extremely short-notice against a far more experienced opponent. The odds aren’t released yet, but Le will be a huge underdog in need of a miracle.

Hopefully it pays off for “Bang” in the long run, but this Saturday night is probably going to be unpleasant.

Prediction: Gutierrez via knockout

Featherweight: Damon Jackson (+180) vs. Chepe Mariscal (-218)

Best Win for Jackson? Pat Sabatini For Mariscal? Jack Jenkins
Current Streak: Jackson won his last bout, while Mariscal is 3-0 in the UFC
X-Factor: Jackson is a crafty veteran good at playing spoiler
How these two match up: See, this is a fun fight regardless of the overall card.

I very much enjoy watching “The Leech” fight. He’s not the most athletic man on the roster, but Jackson knows how to use his range well, and he’s quite excellent on the mat. 30 fights into his professional career, Jackson appears to still be at his best at 35 years of age, which is an impressive accomplishment in its own right.

Mariscal has shown a strong mix of skills as well. He was lucky to escape with the split-decision nod in his last bout versus Morgan Charriere, but even in that difficult scrap, Mariscal showed his grit and smarts to up the pressure, wrestle, and find success when the bout started out strongly in his opponent’s favor.

I’m expecting a close and competitive fight here. Both can compete everywhere, so it’s not as simple as one man taking down the other and easily winning. Jackson has small advantages in height and reach, as well as a large edge in overall high-level experience. Mariscal, however, is the younger and faster man, two attributes that could make a huge difference as well.

Ultimately, what has me leaning towards Mariscal is simple volume. He throws more strikes and does so in combination, whereas we’ve seen Jackson’s output fade late (against Billy Quarantillo, for example). In a close fight where neither man can outright dominate on the floor, volume is very often the deciding factor.

Prediction: Mariscal via decision

Women’s Bantamweight: Yana Santos (-135) vs. Chelsea Chandler (+114)

Best Win for Santos? Ketlen Vieira For Chandler? Josiane Nunes
Current Streak: Santos has lost three straight, while Chandler won her last bout
X-Factor: Chandler has difficulty making the 135-pound limit
How these two match up: Alright, this fight is probably going to be less good,

Santos is frustrating. She’s shown the ability to play spoiler well (Vieira) or fall apart completely after getting hit (Aldana). She’s a kicks-and-clinch fighter, one who avoids the pocket like her life depends on it … because it often does.

Chandler is now three fights into her UFC career, and all I can really remember is her face-first sprint into the cage opposite Norma Dumont. That’s not fair, seeing as she won her other two fights, but it’s how I feel. When she isn’t meeting obstacles head-on, the Southpaw is actually a reasonably well-rounded prospect with good power and solid grappling.

This is a match up of a fighter trying to halt a skid while the other aims to pick up momentum. Santos hasn’t won a fight since 2021, and she’s looked offensively inept in large portions of her losses. Chandler, conversely, is just eight fights into her pro career and hasn’t even really figured out the cut to Bantamweight yet.

Despite the uncertainty of it all, I like the (minor) upset here. At this stage of her career, Santos mostly wins fights by muscling her opponents to the floor from the clinch. Chandler is strong enough to prevent that from happening easily, and she just has a lot more confidence in the pocket.

When in doubt, size and youth win the day.

Prediction: Chandler via decision

Welterweight: Danny Barlow (-375) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+295)

Best Win for Barlow? Josh Quinlan For Veretennikov? Ashley Reece
Current Streak: Barlow recently won his UFC debut, while Veretennikov has won three straight on the regional scene
X-Factor: Veretennikov accepted this fight just days ago
How these two match up: A short-notice replacement debuts against a quality prospect.

Barlow is a great example of what works well in MMA. The 29-year-old has just eight pro fights to his name, but he’s athletic, big for the division, and has a great Southpaw cross. What else could a young talent need?!?

Veretennikov is a slugger himself. He actually gave rising contender Michael Morales a solid scrap in his Contenders Series appearance back in 2021, which was his only loss in the last eight years. He’s stopped nine of his 12 victories via knockout and should be able to hold his own in a firefight.

There’s the recipe for an upset here: Veretennikov is more experienced and has significant power himself. Barlow doesn’t do anything overly complicated in the cage, so perhaps the Kazakh athlete can outmaneuver him.

That feels like an unreasonable tall ask on just a few day’s notice, however. Barlow is a quality prospect with great natural instincts. He appears to have a high ceiling, which is enough of a reason to pick “Left Hand 2 God” against an unproven and short-notice opponent.

Prediction: Barlow via decision

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2024: 30-20 (3)