Predictions! UFC 295 Late ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 2

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ESPN+ this weekend (Sat., Nov. 11, 2023) when UFC 295: “Prochazka vs. Pereira” storms Madison Square Garden in New York City. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg continues the UFC 295 “Prelims” party with the second (and final) installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

Two of the most violent Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) strikers collide inside Madison Square Garden in New York, N.Y., this Saturday (Nov. 11, 2023) when former Middleweight champion, Alex Pereira, welcomes former Light Heavyweight kingpin, Jiri Prochazka, back to the Octagon in an explosive pay-per-view (PPV) main event.

UFC 295’s co-feature sees top Heavyweight contenders Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich duke it out for the interim title in Jon Jones’ absence (details here), while Matt Frevola battles Benoit Saint-Denis in a Lightweight fight that figures to be pure octane … for as long as it lasts.

We’ve got four more UFC 295 “Prelims” undercard bouts to examine (check out the first batch here) and no better time to do so. Let’s dig in …

125 lbs.: Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa

After thoroughly conquering Eternal MMA’s Flyweight division, Steve Erceg (10-1) stepped up on short notice to battle David Dvorak in his UFC debut. “Astro Boy” powered through a tough start to steadily take over, claiming both “Performance of the Night” and his ninth consecutive victory.

Six of his seven professional finishes have come via submission.

Five months after winning a decision (but not a contract) on Contender Series, Alessandro Costa (13-3) answered the short notice call to battle Amir Albazi, an admirably bold move that nonetheless saw him flattened in the third. He bounced back six months later with a “Performance of the Night” beatdown of Jimmy Flick for his eighth win in nine fights.

He replaces Matt Schnell — whom Erceg replaced against Dvorak last June — on around two weeks’ notice.

Beating someone as slick and well-rounded as Erceg is a tall task at the best of times, much less with less than a half-month to prepare. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Costa’s up to the task. Though nowhere near as tricky as Dvorak, Costa hits a fair bit harder with both punches and the low kicks that gave Erceg so much trouble before “Astro Boy’s” clutch knockdown. Strong takedown defense should also keep “Nono” safe from Erceg’s nasty ground game.

The big concern here is Costa’s durability, which failed him dramatically against another well-rounded contender in Albazi. Erceg’s not a one-shot artist, but he’s got some deceptive pop in his hands. That said, I like Costa to repeat what he did against Jimmy Flick, compromising Erceg’s legs before clubbing him into submission.

Prediction: Costa via second round technical knockout

115 lbs.: Tabatha Ricci vs. Lupita Godinez

Stepping up in weight on short notice just six weeks after her previous bout, Tabatha Ricci (9-1) was summarily battered by Manon Fiorot in her Octagon debut. “Baby Shark” has been quite a bit more successful since, racking up four wins and notably outclassing Gillian Robertson last time out.

Her four professional finishes include three by submission.

Consistent inconsistency left Lupita Godinez (11-3) 3-3 after six Octagon appearances, impressive wins over the likes of Loma Lookboonmee offset by upset defeats to Jessica Penne, Luana Carolina and Angela Hill. She seems to have finally found her footing, winning three straight in the span of five months.

“Loopy” stands one inch taller than Ricci at 5’2.”

All three of Godinez’s UFC losses were self-inflicted — she insisted on grappling with Penne and Carolina and striking with Hill despite having clear advantages in other areas of the game. Now that she’s seemingly figured out which weapons to use at any given time, the rest of the division is in trouble, Ricci included.

I’ll admit that I’ve underestimated “Baby Shark” in the past, but I don’t see her winning this. Godinez is the more powerful boxer by a solid margin and her wrestling looks more potent than Ricci’s judo. Though Ricci’s surprised me before, Godinez’s versatility and raw horsepower should carry her to a competitive decision win.

Prediction: Godinez via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Mateusz Rebecki (18-1) rode a 12-fight win streak into Contender Series, where he needed just three minutes to choke out Rodrigo Lidio and secure a UFC contract. He now sits at 2-0 inside the Octagon after one-sided wins over Nick Fiori and Loik Radzhabov.

His 15 professional finishes are split 9:6 between knockouts and submissions.

After graduating from Contender Series and winning four of his first five in the Octagon, Roosevelt Roberts (12-3) left UFC on the heels of a three-fight winless streak. He picked up a pair of wins on the regional circuit, then defeated Nate Jennerman on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 31 before dropping a split decision to Austin Hubbard in the semifinals.

“The Predator” steps in for the injured Nurullo Aliev on less than one week’s notice.

Rebecki was going to destroy Aliev. “Tajik Eagle” had little to offer besides a strong wrestling attack, which Rebecki also boasts alongside high-level submission skills and dangerous striking. The lanky Roberts offers a far different set of challenges, but none that Rebecki can’t overcome. Rebecki’s takedowns and low kicks look like excellent weapons in this matchup, and though Roberts will have a ton of height and reach on him, we’ve seen him struggle to keep shorter opponents away in the past.

So long as the dramatic shift in his opponent’s style and stature doesn’t trip him up, Rebecki has everything he needs to take a dominant victory. He bullies Roberts to a one-sided win.

Prediction: Rebecki via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

Nazim Sadykhov (9-1) torched Ahmad Suhail Hassanzada on Contender Series to secure a berth in the Octagon, then emerged victorious in a firefight with Evan Elder thanks to a headbutt-induced cut stoppage. Next came Terrance McKinney, whom Sadykhov choked out in the second round after spending much of the first on his back.

He stands one inch shorter than “Slava Claus” at 5’10.”

A red-hot ZUFFA start saw Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3) knockout Chris Duncan on Contender Series and Dakota Bush in the Octagon. Issues with takedown defense resulted in back-to-back losses against Marc Diakiese and Mike Davis, but Borshchev returned to the win column with a bonus-winning knockout of Maheshate in May 2023.

All but one of his wins have come via knockout.

Borshchev flat-out cannot deal with chain wrestling. He’s decent at stopping initial shots and very good at getting back to his feet, but he has no ability to break opponents’ grips and reset before they can take him back down. Luckily for him — and unluckily for Sadykhov — “Black Wolf” comes to bang.

As fearsome as Sadykhov’s offense is, the Elder fight showed several lingering flaws, namely a tendency to leave his head up and fight in straight lines. Borshchev is too sharp a striker to let those habits go unpunished, and though Sadykhov is willing to shoot takedowns, he’s nowhere near the suffocating presence Diakiese and Davis are. In short, Borshchev ends a fast-paced fire fight with a monster counter sometime in the first frame.

Prediction: Borshchev via first round technical knockout

Fight fans can’t exactly complain about seeing two top Heavyweights square off — even with a bogus title on the line — and Pereira vs. Prochazka is a fight fan’s wet dream. Don’t miss out — see you Saturday, Maniacs.

Current Prediction Record for 2023: 164-86-2 (4 NC)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 295 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 295: “Prochazka vs. Pereira” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.