Predictions! UFC 296 Early ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 1

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ESPN+ this weekend (Sat., Dec. 16, 2023) when UFC 296: “Edwards vs. Covington” storms T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg kicks off the UFC 296 “Prelims” party with the first installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ends its 2023 campaign this Saturday (Dec. 9, 2023) when the familiar halls of T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, host a pay-per-view (PPV) title doubleheader.

UFC 296’s main event sees Leon Edwards defend his Welterweight title against questionably deserving challenger, Colby Covington, while newly-crowned Flyweight kingpin, Alexandre Pantoja, battles old rival, Brandon Royval, in the co-feature.

With late-notice cancelations a constant threat, the show features a hefty nine “Prelims” undercard bouts as insurance, five on ESPN+ and the rest on ESPN+/ESPN2. Let’s check out the former below …

205 lbs.: Alonzo Menifield vs. Dustin Jacoby

A pair of brutal first-round knockouts started Alonzo Menifield’s (14-3-1) UFC run on the right foot, only for losses to Devin Clark and Ovince St. Preux to halt his momentum in its tracks. “Atomic” now finds himself 5-1-1 in the last three years, the lone loss a highly questionable one to William Knight.

Thirteen of his 14 wins have come inside the distance, nine of them by knockout.

Dustin Jacoby’s (19-7-1) second UFC tenure began with a 6-0-1 run capped by a bonus-winning knockout of Da Un Jung. Though he dropped his next two to Khalil Rountree Jr. and Azamat Murzakanov, he returned to the win column and claimed another bonus by smashing Kennedy Nzechukwu in 82 seconds.

He is the taller man by three inches.

As laudable as Menifield’s technical development is, he’s still a few steps behind Jacoby on the feet. I’m not convinced “Atomic,” who’s still prone to sacrificing crispness for the sake of swangin’ and bangin’, has an answer for Jacoby’s crisp long-range offense. He’s the bigger puncher, sure, but even powerhouses like Rountree and Murzakanov couldn’t put Jacoby down for good.

Of the people Menifield has beaten in the Octagon, only Jimmy Crute is even in the same universe as Jacoby when it comes to striking, and even he’s very much at the edges. Jacoby’s way too sharp for Menfield on the feet, so expect him to take apart “Atomic” with straight punches and low kicks for either a late stoppage or shutout decision.

Prediction: Jacoby via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden

Tagir Ulanbekov (14-2) survived a compromised leg to out-grit Bruno Silva in his successful UFC debut. He’s fought just three times in the three years since, going 2-1 while withdrawing from five separate bouts.

Saturday’s fight ends a 13-month layoff.

Cody Durden (16-4-1) managed just one win in his first four UFC bouts, an ugly decision over Aoriqileng. He enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of four straight wins, three of them upsets.

He boasts six knockouts and five submissions as a professional.

I’ve been agonizing over this matchup for a lot longer than it probably merits. It’s 50/50 from where I’m sitting: on one side, Durden hits harder and Ulanbekov has a mixed record against other strong grapplers in the Octagon. On the other, Ulanbekov has the better gas tank and can push an exhausting pace.

I think I have to go with Durden. Ulanbekov’s offensive wrestling was remarkably ineffective against Tim Elliott until the final round, and while Durden had his share of struggles against Jake Hadley, he still managed to gut out a strong third round. In short, Durden takes an early lead with heavy right hands and takedowns, then scrapes out at least one of the last two rounds to make it five straight.

Prediction: Durden via split decision

145 lbs.: Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida

After a long stretch of alternating wins and losses, Andre Fili (22-10) finally found his stride with a 4-1 run. He’s 2-4 (1 NC) in the seven bouts since, most recently losing a narrow decision to Nathaniel Wood in July 2023.

He sports a three-inch reach advantage over Lucas Almeida (14-2).

Almeida rebounded from his unsuccessful Contender Series appearance by choking out Italo Trindade under the Jungle Fight banner, then knocked out Michael Trizano in his “Fight of the Night”-winning UFC debut. A year-long layoff followed, after which Pat Sabatini put him away via second round arm triangle.

His 100 percent finishing record features nine knockouts.

Fili has everything he needs to win this fight, but he’ll need to stay sharp from bell-to-bell. While Almeida’s not terribly difficult to hit or take down, he’s got more than enough power to shut off Fili’s lights with one shot and isn’t shy about throwing heaters in volume.

Fili wins if he can keep his distance and utilize the wrestling that salvaged his fight with Algeo. It’s a tightrope he’s fallen off before, but Almeida’s flat-footed approach should give him enough openings to bail himself out of tight spots. In other words, pot-shots and top control carry him to victory.

Prediction: Fili via unanimous decision

265 lbs.: Martin Buday vs. Shamil Gaziev

Martin Buday (13-1) rattled off seven straight victories to earn a spot on Contender Series, where he battered Lorenzo Hook en route to a contract-winning knockout. His UFC run began with controversial decisions over Chris Barnett and Lukasz Brzeski, though his subsequent wins over Jake Collier and Josh Parisian proved more definitive.

“Badys” faces a 1.5-inch reach disadvantage.

Shamil Gaziev (11-0) — a training partner of top Flyweight prospect Muhammad Mokaev — punched his Contender Series ticket with three straight wins over some of Europe’s best Heavyweights. There, he fought through some early grappling trouble to choke out Greg Velasco and secure a UFC contract.

Eight of his 10 professional finishes have come in the first round.

This goes one of two ways: either Gaziev knocks Buday’s block off inside of three minutes or Buday steadily demolishes him in the clinch. Both are very possible, but I’m leaning toward the latter. Both men are easy to hit, Buday maybe more so, but Buday has the advantage of strong cardio and superior wrestling. If Buday can take Gaziev’s best shot and stay conscious, he wins.

I’ll be an optimist and say he can, especially since Gaziev is the only one of the two to have suffered a recent knockdown. When the dust settled, Buday weathers an early storm to grind Gaziev’s gas tank to dust and batter him into submission.

Prediction: Buday via third round technical knockout

170 lbs.: Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov

An inauspicious UFC start saw Randy Brown (17-5) — one of the first alumni of Dana White’s Lookin’ for a Fight — go 6-4 over the span of four years. He now sits at 5-1 in his last six, the lone loss coming to a red-hot Jack Della Maddalena.

He’ll enjoy four inches of height and eight inches of reach on Muslim Salikhov (19-4).

“The King of Kung Fu” bounced back from an unsuccessful UFC debut with five straight wins, among them notable wins over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Francisco Trinaldo. He’s since lost two of three, including a unanimous decision to Nicolas Dalby his last time out.

His professional finishes are split 12:3 between knockouts and submissions.

Despite nearly eight years of seasoning in the Octagon, Brown still isn’t particularly good at utilizing his freakish dimensions. Not great news against a striker of Salikhov’s caliber, especially since we already saw “The King of Kung Fu” demolish another beanpole in Ricky Rainey.

There’s a big counterpoint, and that’s that Salikhov is pushing 40 and clearly feeling it. Brown doesn’t push a particularly torrid pace, but chasing someone that rangy takes a lot of energy, especially when Brown can fall back on the clinch if needed. If Salikhov can’t get rid of him early, odds are Brown will mix long-range potshots and plenty of control against the fence to secure the decision.

Prediction: Brown via unanimous decision

Four more UFC 296 “Prelims” undercard bouts remain to preview and predict, including the latest from Cody Garbrandt and Bryce Mitchell’s last-minute clash with Josh Emmett. Same time tomorrow, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 296 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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