Predictions! UFC 299 Early ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 1

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ESPN+/ESPN this weekend (Sat., March 9, 2024) when UFC 299: “O’Malley vs. Vera 2” storms Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg kicks off the UFC 299 “Prelims” party with the first installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

Newly-crowned Bantamweight champion, Sean O’Malley, looks to avenge his only career loss this weekend (Sat., March 9, 2024) when he battles fellow finisher, Marlon Vera, inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. UFC 299 also hosts a Lightweight crossroads clash between fast-rising Benoit Saint Denis and the inimitable Dustin Poirier, as well as the long-awaited Octagon debut of Michael “Venom” Page against Kevin Holland.

UFC 299’s nine-fight “Prelims” undercard lineup features five bouts on ESPN+ and four on ESPN. Let’s check out that first bit below …

185 lbs.: Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

An ignominious 1-2 UFC start gave way to five straight wins for Michel Pereira (29-11), among them a “Fight of the Night” decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio. Assorted issues and a flubbed weight cut kept him out of action for the next 17 months, but he made up for lost time by smashing Andre Petroski in 66 seconds (watch it).

He gives up one inch of reach to “Hussar” despite standing one inch taller.

After amassing a 4-3 (1 NC) UFC record at Light Heavyweight, Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-6) dropped to 185 pounds in 2022. The move has paid dividends, producing three first round knockouts in four bouts.

His recent finish of Chidi Njokuani marked his 14th professional knockout and 15th finish overall.

There are two types of opponents who give Oleksiejczuk fits: good movers who prevent him from planting his feet and takedown artists. Unfortunately for him … Pereira is both. When he’s not flying through the air, Pereira is a very competent sharp shooter who’s tough to hunt down. And even though he’s not exactly a smothering grappler, he wrestles well enough to punch through Oleksiejczuk’s <.500 takedown defense.

Pereira’s gas tank should hold up well without that debilitating weight cut, giving him the means to run circles around Oleksiejczuk all night. Even if Oleksiejczuk does force his way inside, Pereira is extremely durable and has an easy out thanks to those takedowns. In short, Pereira out-classes Oleksiejczuk for his second UFC Middleweight win.

Prediction: Pereira via unanimous decision

265 lbs.: Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian

Robelis Despaigne (4-0) represented his native Cuba in the 2012 Olympics, ultimately earning a Super Heavyweight bronze medal in taekwondo. He transitioned to mixed martial arts (MMA) MMA in 2022 and has since racked up four first round knockouts in a combined 5:13.

He stands three inches taller than Josh Parisian (1507) at 6’7” and boasts a seven-inch reach advantage.

Parisian made it 2-0 on Contender Series, pounding out Chad Johnson to secure his sixth consecutive knockout and a spot in the Octagon. He’s 2-4 in the 3.5 years since, including back-to-back losses to Jamal Pogues and Martin Buday in 2023.

Eight of his 13 finishes have come in the first round.

So, here’s the thing. Parisian is not a quality fighter by any stretch of the imagination. For example, his only two wins since Contender Series were a robbery decision over Roque Martinez and a comeback finish of the immensely flawed Alan Baudot, who very nearly finished Parisian before fumbling the bag. Despaigne, by contrast, is freakishly huge, boasts a top-notch striking pedigree, and has hammers in his hands.

All signs point to an instantaneous mauling.

I just can’t shake the feeling that we’re in for a script-flipping. Despaigne’s four victims had a combined record of 1-0 and he’s been a professional for less than two years. Parisian may be near the bottom of the UFC barrel, but he’s still an order of magnitude better than anyone Despaigne has faced. On top of that, Parisian is highly durable and willing to wrestle if needed — a rough combination for an MMA neophyte to deal with. While Despaigne could just smoke him with a wayward haymaker inside of 10 seconds, it seems likelier to me that Parisian finds the body lock, drags him to the mat, and pounds him out for a huge upset.

Prediction: Parisian via first round technical knockout

125 lbs.: C.J. Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev

C.J. Vergara (12-4-1) capped off his five-fight knockout streak by upsetting The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Brazil veteran, Bruno Korea, on Contender Series. He started his UFC run 1-2, missing weight in both defeats, but went on to defeat Daniel Lacerda and Vinicius Salvador in 2023.

He boasts a three-inch reach advantage and a two-inch height advantage.

Assu Almabayev (18-2) rode a six-year, 13-fight win streak into his UFC debut, which pitted him against Contender Series graduate, Ode Osbourne. “Zulfikar” needed less than two rounds to defeat Osbourne via rear-naked choke and claim his first post-fight bonus in the process (watch it).

The win marked his ninth by submission and his dozenth inside the distance.

This strikes me as a far more forgiving matchup for Almabayev than his debut. Osbourne — a much better wrestler than Vergara — had no answer for Almabayev’s grappling attack. There’s no reason to think that Vergara — who spent more than six minutes of their nine-minute fight underneath Tatsuro Taira — will fare any better.

Though Vergara does have the edge in power and Almabayev is far from a defensive wizard, Almabayev is unlikely to indulge him on the feet for any length of time before shooting. In the end, Almabayev drags him to the mat in the opening minutes and chokes him out shortly thereafter.

Prediction: Almabayev via first round submission

125 lbs.: Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz

With a title shot virtually guaranteed, Joanne Wood (16-8) elected to step in and battle Jennifer Maia in 2020, kicking off what ultimately became a 1-4 skid. With her back against the wall, she earned a much-needed win by edging out Luana Carolina at UFC 286.

She fights for the first time in nearly one year.

Maryna Moroz (11-5) clawed her way out of a 2-3 slump with three straight wins, notably handing Sabina Mazo and Mayra Bueno Silva their first professional defeats. Then came a decision loss to Maia, followed by a first round submission defeat at the hands of Karine Silva.

Five of her six professioanl submissions have come by armbar.

It’s hard not to feel for Wood, whose career just never seemed to turn the corner. From having to juice herself down to 115 pounds before the Flyweight division came about to the losses that always seemed to happen at the worst time, things never quite worked out despite her considerable potential.

I do, however, think she has what it takes to avenge her first-ever loss. Though both women have been alarmingly hittable of late, Wood remains the sharper of the two at close range, where Moroz consistently finds herself despite her height and reach. Moroz’s takedown defense also remains an issue, and while “The Iron Lady” did tap Wood off of her back last time, Wood’s improved grappling should be up to the task this time. When the dust settles, clutch takedowns admit a series of nip-and-tuck exchanges seal the deal for “Dr. Kneevil.”

Prediction: Wood via unanimous decision

205 lbs.: Ion Cutelaba vs. Philipe Lins

Once 11-1 in his professional career, Ion Cutelaba (17-9-1) found himself fighting for his UFC life amidst a 1-5-1 skid. He finally got back on track in April 2023, knocking out Tanner Boser to secure the fourth first round finish of his Octagon career.

All but two of his professional wins have come inside the distance, including 13 knockouts.

Philipe Lins (17-5) followed a 1-3 Bellator run with four consecutive finishes in Professional Fighters League (PFL), the last one a tournament-clinching finish of UFC veteran, Josh Copeland. He’s competed just five times in the five years since and seen 11 separate fights fall through.

He boasts a one-inch height advantage and a three-inch reach advantage.

For all his macho-man posturing, Cutelaba has what seems like a psychological compulsion to self-destruct, often by spamming takedowns regardless of whether he has an edge on the feet. Both Ryan Spann and Johnny Walker are notoriously chinny, yet Cutelaba insisted on dragging it to the mat in the sloppiest manner imaginable and got tapped for it.

That’s fine against incompetent grapplers like Boser, but while Lins may be among the sport’s premier pullout artists, he’s a very competent and well-rounded fighter when he actually makes it to the cage. His mobility should let him stay away from Cutelaba’s haymakers and provoke an unsafe, long-range shot from “The Hulk.” From there, it’s just a matter of time until Cutelaba leaves his neck out.

Prediction: Lins via first round submission

Four more UFC 299 “Prelims” undercard bouts remain to preview and predict, including a tantalizing Heavyweight bout pitting Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida. Same time tomorrow, Maniacs.

---

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 299 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 299: “O’Malley vs. Vera 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.