MMA: APR 29 UFC Fight Night — Photo by Louis Grasse/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

This weekend (Sat., Nov. 4, 2023), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Ginasio do Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo, Brazil, for UFC Sao Paulo. It’s been a while since the promotion made the trip south, and as one would expect, the card is loaded up with Brazilian talents. It’s the situation where the names aren’t necessarily the most high-profile, but they’re are talented prospects or battle-hardened veterans throughout much of the evenings, from “Prelims” to main event.

Dare I say sleeper card? Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main event:

Welterweight: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby

Best Win for Bonfim? Trevin Giles For Dalby? Alex Oliveira
Current Streak: Bonfim is 2-0 in the UFC and 15-0 overall, while Dalby has won three straight
X-Factor: Bonfim is over a decade younger with far fewer miles on him
How these two match up: This is what I was talking about in the intro: a great fight between names that only serious fight fans really appreciate.

Bonfim looks like a serious Welterweight prospect. He’s finished each of his 15 wins, mostly via submission, and his pair of UFC bouts have seen him put hands on opponents quickly before wrapping up the neck. At just 26 years of age, Bonfim could be knocking on the door of a ranking.

As for Dalby, it’s astounding that he showed up better to his second UFC stint in his mid-30s. He’s genuinely improved everywhere compared to his first go three years prior! Dalby is a better range striker, more effective wrestler, and overall able to push a more effective pace than the 2015 version of “Danish Dynamite.”

Here’s the other thing about Dalby: he knows how to play spoiler. The man is routinely under appreciated by oddsmakers — that happens to 38 year old veterans — and yet he keeps winning. He’s hard-nosed enough to absorb an early barrage and come on strong, the exact type of fighter that can shock a young talent like Bonfim, accustomed to winning quickly.

That said, Bonfim feels like the real deal, and he’s fought into the third round enough times that I trust his gas tank not to completely implode. Resurgence or not, it’s going to be tough for Dalby to handle the superior wrestling and grappling of the Brazilian, and that kind of physical fight can be difficult for an older Welterweight.

Prediction: Bonfim via submission

Heavyweight: Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes 2

Best Win for Nascimento? Tanner Boser For Mayes? Andrei Arlovski
Current Streak: Nascimento has won two straight, while Mayes returned to the win column last time out
X-Factor: It’s a rematch of a fight I don’t think anybody remembers
How these two match up: What is with UFC rebooking uninteresting fights lately?

Whatever. It’s a pair of lower-tier Heavyweights, who at 30 and 31 years of age respectively, could conceivably become good … eventually. Until then, Nascimento is a well-rounded enough talent without one overwhelming strong suit, while Mayes is a quality athlete with power in his hands (but no idea how to consistently use it).

Back in 2020, Nasicmento choked out Mayes in the second. Since then, he’s 2-1 (1), while Mayes is 3-1 (1). Neither has given me much to suggest that anything has changed?

Credit to Mayes, he does seem to be landing his power shots more often. However, his wrestling is still not great, and he gasses out when forced to work hard for any period of time. If Nascimento commits to the grind, he probably taps him yet again.

Prediction: Nascimento via submission.

Middleweight: Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov

Best Win for Borralho? Michel Oleksiejczuk For Magomedov? Dustin Stoltzfus
Current Streak: Borralho has won four straight inside the Octagon, while Magomedov lost his last bout to Sean Strickland!
X-Factor: Magomedov is a really fast starter
How these two match up: This is a solid match up of men on the verge of the Middleweight Top 15.

Borralho fights aren’t always a ton of fun, but the guy is pretty dang good. He’s got excellent chain wrestling, smothering top control, and the kickboxing know-how to set up his shots and push a brutal pace — most Middleweights hate brutal paces!

Case in point: Abus Magomedov! An explosive kicker with quality takedowns, Magomedov likes to burst out of the gate and kick his opponents to pieces. It tends to work beautifully or blow up in his face before long.

I very much expect Magomedov to win the first round. Borralho has never been stopped, however, and he’s not helpless on his feet even if he prefers to grapple. As Borralho showed against Oleksiejczuk, he knows how to minimize damage absorbed and wrestle until his opponent starts to fall a step behind.

That sounds like the perfect strategy against Magomedov, who gassed about about the four minute mark against Strickland. Oh yeah, Borralho is a training partner of Strickland too! That certainly can’t hurt his preparation, especially when it’s already a stylistic layup.

… provided “The Natural” doesn’t shoot face-first into a knee, of course.

Prediction: Borralho via decision

Middleweight: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan

Best Win for Vieira? Cody Brundage For Petrosyan? Gregory Rodrigues
Current Streak: Vieira rebounded last time out, while Petrosyan has won two in a row
X-Factor: Both are still fairly inexperienced in MMA
How these two match up: Here’s a fun style clash that feels likely to produce a finish one way or another.

Vieira got stomped by Anthony Hernandez in the 2021 upset of the year, but he took the right lessons away. Since then, he’s shown improved stand up and conditioning, though his ability to set up shots still leaves something to be desired. Fortunately, if he does get his man down, Vieira might be the best grappler on the roster.

As for Petrosyan, he’s very obviously a great kickboxer. He moves well, hits hard, and can strike from all distances. His takedown defense failed him badly against Caio Borralho in his sole UFC loss, however, and most other opponents who have tried to drag him down have succeeded.

This is always going to be one of those fights where the prediction is going to make you look like a genius or moron. If Vieira drags his foe to the floor, he pummels and strangles him in short fashion. If not, Petrosyan picks him apart and likely scores the knockout. It all hinges on the takedown!

I’m going to guess Vieira gets it. His blast double is no joke, and his overall physicality seems like it’ll be a problem for Petrosyan. “Superman” has historically done well to scramble to his feet, but that’s a tall task opposite “The Black Belt Hunter.”

Lightweight: Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel

Best Win for Bonfim? Terrance McKinney For Pichel? Jim Miller
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Pichel is 40 years old and hasn’t fought since April 2022
How these two match up: Similar to his brother’s bout above, this is a fun prospect vs. grizzled veteran match up.

Bonfim shredded McKinney, instantly producing a good amount of hype for himself on the strength of his composed and powerful kickboxing. Unfortunately for “Marreta,” Benoit Saint-Denis absolutely ran through him in similar fashion, so it’s hard to say just how good the 27 year old is two fights into his UFC career.

As for Pichel, The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran pops up every so often to put on gritty, tough fights. He’s a good wrestler with a solid chin and deep gas tank, which does the trick more often than not. He’s been on the roster since 2012 (!?!?!), fighting just 10 times in the span.

Like Dalby before him, Pichel is capable of playing spoiler. He knows how to grind and make athletic opponents miserable. Unfortunately, it’s also really hard to pick a 40-year-old Lightweight coming off a significant layoff.

Perhaps the bigger issue is that “From Hell” likely doesn’t have much to offer Bonfim on the feet. Saint-Denis was able to hammer him with liver kicks before getting his wrestling going, but it feels like Pichel is going to have to shoot from too far away to avoid getting cracked, which just isn’t a recipe for success.

More likely, Bonfim rebounds with some big combinations and capitalizes on Pichel’s inability to secure the early takedown.

Prediction: Bonfim via knockout

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2023: 44-35-1 (2)