Tonight (Sat., May 4, 2024), Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (60-2-2, 39 KO) returns for what has become a tradition for him — one of his bi-annual fights on either Cinco de Mayo or Mexican Independence Day. However, his opponent, Jamie Munguia (43-0, 34 KO), isn’t exactly the most desired combatant out there. Indeed, many were hoping for David Benavidez, but that fight never materialized, and Benavidez decided to move up to 175 pounds.
So, what makes Munguia a dangerous opponent for Canelo?
A good right hand and the ability to pressure on a near-constant basis. He’s had issues when his adversary has been on the front foot (e.g. Sergei Derevyachenko) but the vast majority of his career has been him influencing the action. That and honestly what seems to be the slow erosion of Canelo’s lofty skillset.
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Canelo hasn’t quite shown the same head movement and glove work from his excellent run up to the Dmitry Bivol fight. Fight fans are starting to wonder if Alvarez’s power might also be waning, as he’s gone the distance in all of his last three fights. This includes a not-so-Murderer’s Row of 40-year old Gennady Golovkin, a perceived easy match with John Ryder (whom Munguia also just knocked out) and Jermell Charlo, a natural 154-pound fighter going up two divisions. He’s also faded in all three of his fights, which could play into Munguia’s fists if he can pressure his fellow countryman and make him work all night.
Or, maybe he’s just distracted by former promoter — and cease and desist sender — Oscar de la Hoya? Probably not, but you never know.
All that said, Canelo is one of boxing’s truly best fighters and his sole loss in the past 20 fights came from him going up a weight class in a quest for glory. There’s a reason he’s a -510 favorite. Munguia likes to come forward and Alvarez likes to counter-punch. On paper, these styles could be very interesting. But, if we’re being persnickety, maybe stuff Canelo over 10.5 rounds into your parlay at a more attractive -250?
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