Prochazka Vs. Rakic Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight talents Jiri Prochazka and Aleksandar Rakic will collide this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 300.

Prochazka’s incredible 13-fight win streak lasted about seven years, culminating in a UFC title win. It came to an end back in Nov. 2023, however, when the calf kicks and power punches of Alex Pereira proved an effective antidote to Prochazka’s chaotic style. Six months later, he’s looking to start a new streak and return to 205-pound gold.

Meanwhile, it’s been just about two years since we’ve seen Rakic in action. His layoff resulted from a nasty knee injury that cost him any chance at victory against Jan Blachowicz. Prior to that injury, a Rakic title shot seemed imminent, as the Austrian contender was really coming into his own.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Prochazka Vs. Rakic Betting Odds

• Jiri Prochazka victory: +100
• Jiri Prochazka via TKO/KO/DQ: +180
• Jiri Prochazka via submission: +1000
• Jiri Prochazka via decision: +650
• Aleksandar Rakic victory: -120
• Aleksandar Rakic via TKO/KO/DQ: +225
• Aleksandar Rakic via submission: +1600
• Aleksandar Rakic via decision: +275
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Prochazka Wins

Prochazka is one of the most violent finishers in the history of the sport. Indeed, 28 finishes in 29 wins? That’s an absurd statistic. Prochazka excels in chaos and forces his foes into deep waters, where they’ll have to dodge spinning elbows and overhands while struggling to breathe.

Prochazka’s aggression definitely opens him up to counters and takedowns — that’s simply the nature of throwing dozens of strikes per round. Against Rakic, the big risk is that Prochazka bursts forward and gets taken down. This is only a 15-minute fight, and top control time can add up quickly.

The answer isn’t too stop throwing volume or ramp down the aggression. Those are the pillars of Prochazka’s success! However, Prochazka does have to make sure he’s feinting a lot. I’d like to see a lot of false starts from the Prochazka, which are a great tool in drawing out reactive takedowns. If he’s showing feints and taking angles before exploding forward with offense, it’s going to be a lot more difficult for Rakic to time his shots.

In addition, Prochazka should be doing attritional damage. His body shots are genuinely great when he throws them, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be going after the surgically repaired knee of his opponent.

How Rakic Wins

Rakic is a huge Light Heavyweight with excellent kickboxing and great wrestling. Really, he’s a top-notch combination of fundamentals and athleticism, which can take a fighter all the way to UFC gold.

Can Rakic hold his own with Prochazka in the pocket? For a time. He certainly has the power to hurt “BJP.” At the same time, there’s a reason Prochazka has scored so many knockouts. He’s really crafty with his setups and finds his mark with great consistency.

Wrestling seems like the better path for Rakic. He should take a page from Pereira’s book by targeting the calf, which is definitely a weakness in Prochazka’s bouncy, side-on stance. If he can start wounding that lead leg, Prochazka’s advances will grow a bit slower and a bit more desperate.

That’s the perfect time for a reactive double leg.

Prochazka vs. Rakic Prediction

It’s not impossible to take down Prochazka. However, in the last 10 years, nobody has beaten “The Czech Samurai” by making the fight a grinding wrestling match. He’s too well-conditioned and too athletic to be contained forever, and when he does eventually escape to his feet, he tends to make his opponent pay.

Furthermore, Prochazka just feels like a nightmare match up for anyone who hasn’t been fighting actively. Imagine feeling a little rusty and then trying to predict Prochazka’s bizarre offense? It sounds a Herculean task. In addition, Rakic cannot afford to fatigue at all, because Prochazka will be in his face trying to knock him out for every second of the fight.

At some point, I believe he succeeds.

Prediction: Prochazka via knockout (+180)

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