UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz
Odds: (-400 Evans /+300 Ortiz )
Betting Pick: Evans
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In the main event of the evening, two skilled wrestlers and former Light Heavyweight champions will go at it as “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz, fresh off a big win against Ryan Bader, steps up against world #3 Light Heavyweight “Sugar” Rashad Evans. Evans has been out of action for over a year, while Ortiz is only a few weeks removed from a big comeback win against Ryan Bader. This is a very interesting fight, because both guys have similar skill sets, Tito is coming off a very short layoff and is notoriously injury prone, and Rashad’s long absence from active competition could impact his performance greatly. The last time these two met, in 2007, they fought to a draw, but Rashad has been the much more successful of the two since then, so if Ortiz wants to continue his recent resurgence he is going to have his hands full.
“The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz, a former Light Heavyweight champ and sure-fire future Hall of Famer, has had a rough five years. Since back to back wins over his arch-rival Ken Shamrock in 2006, Ortiz has won only one fight, a submission victory over Ryan Bader in his last outing. Ortiz’s losing streak is partly because he has struggled with debilitating back injuries, and partly because his game has evolved. He has always been a very good wrestler with underrated submissions and dominant ground and pound, but his standup is extremely rudimentary and his back problems forced him to telegraph his takedowns since he couldn’t change levels fast enough. His boxing is fairly technically sound, but he’s not particularly fast and he doesn’t have a lot of power, so no one is scared to stand and trade with him, and everyone knows that he is just going to look for takedowns and try to work a top control gameplan. Against Rashad, who is probably a more effective wrestler, he is really going to need to provide some different looks in order to have any success.
“Sugar” Rashad Evans, the former Light Heavyweight champ, is not always one of the most exciting fighters in the world to watch, but he is definitely one of the most effective in the division. He has suffered only one loss as a professional, against Lyoto Machida, and tends to dominate his opponents with powerful striking and very solid wrestling. His standup is not overly technical, but he does have one-punch knockout power. His best weapon, though, by far, is his wrestling. He has great shoot takedowns, great top control, and is extremely effective at controlling his opponents in the clinch and using that position to set up trip takedowns. Rashad is not always the most prolific finisher, but he is very good at staying out of trouble and using his wrestling both offensively and defensively to score points and control fights. The big question is how much his long layoff and the injuries he suffered in training are going to impact his performance. Ortiz is past his prime, but if Rashad isn’t at top form Tito still has the tools and the experience to make him pay, so Rashad is going to need a solid performance if he wants to avoid an upset.
I just don’t think Tito has much of a chance here. He looked good against Ryan Bader in his last fight, but he couldn’t do anything against Rashad the first time they fought and Rashad has improved by leaps and bounds since then while Tito is, at best, the same fighter he was in 2007. Rashad has more dangerous punching power, more speed, and better wrestling. Tito is a tough guy and will be able to hang in this fight, but I think Rashad should easily control the action for a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: “Suga” Rashad Evans via Unanimous Decision.
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