UFC Middleweight bout: Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher
Odds: (-285 Palhares /+225 Belcher )
Fight Pick: Palhares
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In a featured Middleweight matchup, Brazilian leg lock phenom Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares will square off against Alan “The Talent” Belcher, who is a jiu-jitsu wizard in his own right. Both of these guys are world-class grapplers with some of the best submissions in the Middleweight division, but Belcher is probably the better-rounded of the two while Palhares’ leglocks and heelhooks are more devastating than anything Belcher has in his tool belt. If this fight goes to the ground, both guys have enough jiu-jitsu to finish, but Palhares is probably more effective. That said, if Belcher can control when and how the fight plays out, he can likely punish Palhares badly on the feet and he is going to be hard to submit if he can control top position. This is a very interesting matchup that could well have title shot implications in the Middleweight division, which is currently wide open.
Alan Belcher is one of the Middleweight division’s most versatile fighters. Belcher has very solid wrestling, punishing boxing, and extremely effective submissions from a variety of positions. He is a long-time veteran who has fought some very good opponents, and is a difficult guy to finish, having only been stopped 3 times in 23 professional fights. What makes Belcher so dangerous is his ability to not only compete, but finish fights, in pretty much any position. Against Palhares, he is going to have to be extremely careful if the fight goes to the ground, because “Toquinho” has shown time and again that he is the sport’s foremost leg lock expert. That is not to say that Belcher can’t win this fight on the ground, because his jiu-jitsu is good enough that he can catch anyone on any given night, but getting reckless in the grappling exchanges against Palhares could well spell doom for him. Luckily for Belcher, he will enjoy a sizable advantage in punching power and technique, so if he can keep Palhares from forcing takedowns he will be in a great position to control the action and win the fight.
Rousimar Palhares is one of the UFC’s most intriguing young Middleweights. “Toquinho” is a jiu-jitsu ace with amazing submissions from every conceivable position, but his leg locks, ankle locks, and heel hooks are definitely his bread and butter. No one in the sport’s history has ever been as proficient at attacking their opponents’ legs as Palhares, and if he gets a hold of you, the best case scenario is a loss and the worst case scenario is a trip to the hospital. Palhares does have a good all-around game, but against Belcher he is going to be at a serious disadvantage in the striking department. There is no question that Palhares is going to try to get this fight to the ground and start attacking Belcher with submissions as early as he possibly can. Belcher’s jiu-jitsu is extremely formidable as well, but if Palhares can keep this fight on the ground for long stretches of time it is going to be hard for Belcher or anyone he fights to hold him off.
As good a fighter as Belcher is, I think the edge here has to go to Palhares. Belcher is undeniably the more versatile of the two, but he likes to take fights to the ground and work submissions himself, and I don’t think that is a winning strategy against someone as accomplished as Palhares. Either way it happens, I see this fight being played out largely on the ground, and I don’t see a way for Belcher to survive against Palhares’ world-class submission game. This is going to be a very exciting and competitive fight, but I think ultimately Palhares will find a mistake to capitalize on and take the submission victory.
Prediction: Rousimar Palhares by third round sub.
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