Sandhagen Vs. Nurmagomedov Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight standout, Cory Sandhagen, will put his No. 2 ranking on the line when he locks horns with Umar Nurmagomedov this afternoon (Sat., Aug. 3, 2024) at UFC Abu Dhabi inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Sandhagen is knocking on the door of his second UFC title shot. “The Sandman” has won three straight fights over quality contenders since his first opportunity at interim gold, showing an overall improved mixed martial arts (MMA) game in the process. On the flip side, Nurmagomedov doesn’t have a single ranked win, so how’s he the favorite? The family name certainly doesn’t hurt, but it’s also clear that the Russian athlete is a special talent himself. The undefeated (17-0) Nurmagomedov will take a massive step up in competition here and try to prove he’s ready for the title mix right now.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov Betting Odds

• Cory Sandhagen victory: +260
• Cory Sandhagen via TKO/KO/DQ: +550
• Cory Sandhagen via submission: +1600
• Cory Sandhagen via decision: +650
• Umar Nurmagomedov victory: -325
• Umar Nurmagomedov via TKO/KO/DQ: +650
• Umar Nurmagomedov via submission: +275
• Umar Nurmagomedov via decision: +110
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Sandhagen Wins

Sandhagen is one of his division’s best kickboxers. The rangy Bantamweight feints and moves really well, utilizing light punches and stance shifts to gain angles and create bigger connections. In addition, offensive wrestling has become a larger aspect of his game, adding another layer to his feints.

Big picture, Sandhagen wants a kickboxing match. This is a fight between well-rounded contenders who can do it all, but Sandhagen’s best avenue to success involves taking advantage of Nurmagomedov’s limited striking. Limited may sound harsh, but in truth, Nurmagomedov is able to make great use of relatively few skills — flashy kicks, a stiff jab, and a check hook — because the takedown is always on his opponent’s mind.

Therefore, the key for Sandhagen is to extend exchanges without getting taken down in the process; a task easier said than done of course! A big benefit to Sandhagen compared to previous Nurmagomedov opponents is that he can kick with the Russian. He’s not outgunned at distance, which means trying to draw Nurmagomedov forward into counters could be a viable strategy.

Alternatively — or likely, in addition — Sandhagen could aim to extend pocket combinations. Nurmagomedov tends to just fade back with single shots, and he can get out of position in the process. If Sandhagen uses his feints and shifts to draw out those single counter punches, he should be in good position to punch with relatively little fear of the takedown.

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How Nurmagomedov Wins

Nurmagomedov has fight fans excited for a reason. An excellent kicker with knockout power, he’s also one of the division’s best wrestlers with that classic Nurmagomedov mauling style. A wrestler who can kick well is always a very dangerous contender, and Nurmagomedov fits that mold perfectly.

The most proven weakness in Sandhagen’s game is his habit of turning the back while avoiding takedowns. Surely, he has worked to improve that aspect of his defense, but old habits die hard. Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov is a top-notch back-taker with six wins via rear naked choke.

See where I’m going with this?

Nurmagomedov has a very strong ability to time his single leg takedown. It’s probably in his best interest to limit the striking exchanges to a kicking match, then as soon as Sandhagen really advances or is close to the fence, initiate the wrestling. Similar to how Sandhagen wants to draw Nurmagomedov into longer boxing exchanges, more extended time wrestling will reveal Nurmagomedov’s experience advantage in that area.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Sandhagen Vs. Nurmagomedov Prediction

I am on board the Sandhagen 2.0 hype train. I also believe that jumping from unranked opposition to the No. 2-ranked Bantamweight in the world is a monstrous ask, even in a division like 135-pounds where the unranked fighters are still quite good.

It also benefits Sandhagen that this is a 25-minute fight. I don’t anticipate Nurmagomedov being able to simply blow him out of the water in the grappling, not when an unknown like Bezkat Almakhan managed to survive three full rounds on the floor with Nurmagomedov. Sandhagen has the time to be surprised by Nurmagomedov’s strength and then adjust, and once he finds an opening, I think the momentum continues to pile up in the veteran’s favor.

Sandhagen is smart, highly disciplined, and extremely technical — exactly what it takes to upset an undefeated stud like Nurmagomedov.

Prediction: Sandhagen via decision (+650)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Abu Dhabi fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ABC/ESPN (simulcast on ESPN+) at 3 p.m. ET.

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