UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Mauricio Rua vs. Jon Jones
Odds: (+160 Rua /-200 Jones )
Betting Pick: Jones
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In the main event of the evening, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will defend his Light Heavyweight crown against surging young contender Jon “Bones” Jones. Jones is a late replacement for injured teammate Rashad Evans, but he has proven he is worthy of a title shot by easily annihilating everyone he has faced so far. Shogun is one of the greatest Light Heavyweights ever, if not the greatest, but Jones is a new breed in terms of physical gifts and natural ability, so this could well be a fight for the ages.
Jon Jones is getting a title shot fairly early into his career, but it is extremely difficult to question his credentials. Jones has the longest reach of any fighter in the UFC, and he is a Light Heavyweight. His wrestling is dominant, and he uses his technique and size to great advantage. His striking is devastating, if not extremely technical, and he has a very effective submission game from top position. There is no question that Shogun is a huge step up in competition for Jones, but the fact that a fighter as young and relatively inexperienced as Jones is going into this fight as a betting favorite says a lot about how much he has shown in terms of pure offensive capability.
Shogun, who dominated PRIDE’s 205 pound division for years before making his way to the UFC, got off to a rocky start. Hampered by injuries, he turned in a series of disappointing performances, including a loss to Forrest Griffin and a horrendous win over Mark Coleman in one of the sloppiest fights in years. Recently, though, with his injuries healed, he has reverted to the form that made him the best Light Heavyweight on Earth to begin with. An absolutely dominant striker with great boxing and punching power who can annihilate opponents in the clinch, Shogun is one of the most feared fighters ever. He also brings an extremely underrated and effective submission game to the table, not to mention very underrated wrestling.
This is an extremely compelling fight. Shogun has proven for years that he is the man at 205 pounds, a brief injury-riddled stint aside. His striking is the best in the division, and light years beyond anything Jones has had to deal with. On the other hand, Jones is going to have a humongous size and reach advantage, and will be by far the physically stronger of the two. So far, no one Jones has fought has been able to prevent him from ragdolling them, and the fact that he can land destructive power punches from about halfway across the octagon thanks to his reach cannot be underestimated. Shogun is the better striker, but Jones has the same ability to end the fight with one punch, and he can do it from a long way out. More importantly, though, is the fact that Jones’ massive size, strength advantage, and prowess at clinch throwing is going to neutralize one of the most effective aspects of Shogun’s game, his Muay Thai from the clinch. If he tries to close the distance with Jones he is going to get launched in the air and wind up underneath Jones eating vicious elbows. If he tries to stay at range and pick his shots he is going to have to defend the takedown and deal with Jones’ superior reach. Shogun is probably still the better fighter overall, but I don’t think he can handle Jones’ superior physicality, reach, size, and strength. Eventually Shogun will wind up on his back with Jones on top of him, and from there there isn’t much anyone can do. Jones will overwhelm the champion with strikes from top position and force the stoppage. Jones by T/KO.
Prediction: Jon “Bones” Jones via second round T/KO.
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