UFC Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve vs. Dave Herman
Odds: (+110 Struve /-140 Herman )
Betting Pick: Herman
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In the semi-main event, two dangerous Heavyweight strikers will go at it as heavy-handed slugger Dave Herman squares off against rangy Dutch kickboxer Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve. Both of these guys have destructive striking, but Herman is definitely the more dangerous one-punch knockout artist while Struve will enjoy a massive reach advantage and has world-class jiu-jitsu to back up his striking. On the feet, both of these guys have the tools to finish fights, but Struve has a much more versatile offensive skill set, so Herman is going to have to be aggressive and try to get inside Struve’s reach to punish him with power punches if he wants to avoid the loss here.
Dave Herman is a very dangerous power puncher with good technique, very heavy hands, and a solid chin. His striking style is bruising and aggressive, and every punch he throws has fight-ending potential. Against Struve he will be at a pretty massive reach disadvantage, but if he can get inside Struve’s ridiculous range he has the style and power to destroy Struve with heavy punches and uppercuts from the inside. Herman is the shorter man by far, but he is also far more physically powerful and should be able to keep Struve from taking him down, which is going to be huge in this fight since Herman doesn’t have much in the way of jiu-jitsu and Struve’s submissions are top notch. Herman is going to have to fight a careful fight, because Struve has a lot of punching power too and a superhuman amount of reach, but if Herman can defend himself while moving forward and pressing the action, he has all the tools to really punish Struve with dirty boxing from in tight.
Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve is a very tall, very lanky striker with great reach, great technique, and a world class submission game to go along with it all. He doesn’t have quite as much one punch knockout power as Herman, but his ability to use his reach effectively to keep guys on the end of his punches while staying out of range make him a tough nut to crack. If Struve can get this fight to the ground, he will enjoy a huge advantage in that his jiu-jitsu is world class and Herman has almost no grappling skills at all. Whether or not Struve is capable of getting this fight to the ground is another question, because he is not a particularly effective wrestler and Herman is the much stronger and more compact of the two. Struve is going to have to be very careful in this fight, though, because his chin is notoriously suspect and Herman has more than enough power to make him pay dearly for any mistakes or carelessness.
This is a really tough fight to call. Both of these guys have the tools to end the fight on the feet at any time. It remains to be seen whether Herman’s superior power will trump Struve’s superior reach and versatility, or whether Struve will be able to take Herman down if he decides to. In the end, I think Struve’s glass jaw is going to be the deciding factor here. Even if Struve can land shots on Herman, his lack of one-shot knockout power is going to allow Herman to move forward through the punishment and get inside, where his shorter, more compact build will actually become an asset. On the inside I don’t see a way for Struve to stop Herman from landing big shots, and Herman has too much power for Struve to survive the onslaught for long. Struve will land some punches, but in the end I think Herman will be too much for him. Herman by T/KO.
Prediction: Dave Herman by first round T/KO.
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