UFC Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson
Odds: (-130 Struve /+100 Johnson )
Betting Pick: Struve
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In a featured Heavyweight bout, “Big” Lavar Johnson, coming off the biggest win of his career against Pat Barry, will look to keep the momentum going against rangy Dutchman Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve. Johnson showed against Barry that he not only has spectacular striking and power, he is an extremely resilient fighter who is capable of surviving a tough spot. Struve, though, represents a tough challenge in that he not only has great striking technique; he is one of the Heavyweight division’s most prolific submission grapplers. Johnson was in big trouble in his last fight when Barry tripped him with ease and came close to securing a Kimura. If he finds himself on his back against Struve trying to fight off submission attempts, he is unlikely to have as much success this time.
“Big” Lavar Johnson is a prototypical Heavyweight bruiser. He has a huge, bulky frame and every punch he throws has malicious intent. Johnson has devastating punching power and when he smells blood, he goes in for the kill. There isn’t a lot else to his game, though. He doesn’t have much in the way of wrestling, and his grappling prowess is limited to put it mildly. Granted, he did escape Barry’s Kimura attempt, but the fact that he even allowed Pat Barry to take him down and get that close to submitting him says wonders. Luckily for Johnson, Struve’s chin is notoriously spotty, and Johnson has more than enough power to put him to sleep if he can land big power punches. It is vitally important for Johnson to keep this fight standing, though, because it will likely only take one takedown for Struve to finish this fight on the ground.
Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve is an extremely versatile and dangerous fighter offensively, but he is also something of a glass cannon. Struve’s height and reach give him unique advantages against most of his opponents, and he uses them well to keep opponents on the end of his accurate, fast-handed punching. In addition, Struve has a spectacular submission game and, unlike a lot of other Heavyweight grapplers, is very confident working off his back. The biggest problem Struve has is that his chin is notoriously weak. Against Johnson, he would be really unwise to stand and trade, because Johnson has more than enough power to put him down with a single haymaker. On the ground, though, Struve has more than enough to finish Johnson with relative ease. If he fights smart and tries to take Johnson down, he will be in a great position to pull off another win.
This is an interesting matchup in that both fighters are uniquely positioned to capitalize on each other’s weaknesses. Struve’s biggest problem is his chin, and Johnson has enough power to exploit that weakness. Johnson, for his part, struggles any time a fight is not a pure boxing match, and Struve’s submissions will likely prove way too much for him to handle if this fight goes to the ground. The question, then, becomes whether or not Struve can take this fight to the ground. In his last fight, Johnson found himself caught fairly easily by a trip takedown from Barry, and Struve’s long limbs and lanky frame are perfectly equipped to set that up. If Struve can use his reach and frame to clinch Johnson up and trip him to the ground, I don’t think he will have much trouble locking up an arm or taking Johnson’s back and securing a choke. Ultimately, as tough as Johnson is, I think his lack of versatility will be his undoing. I expect Struve to stay out of the way of his punches, use the clinch to neutralize him, and take him down. From there, the submission is academic.
Prediction: Stefan Struve by first round rear naked choke.
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