Get the DVR ready…we have some serious MMA on this weekend! Strikeforce – Henderson VS. Babalu is going down tonight in St. Louis, Missouri. The main event, as you may have guessed from the name, pits former PRIDE double champion Dan Henderson against former UFC Light Heavyweight number one contender Renato “Babalu” Sobral. Also on the card is a guaranteed slugfest between Paul Daley and Scott Smith and a Middleweight scrap between Olympic silver medalist Matt Lindland and hard hitting Robbie Lawler. Herschel Walker was supposed to be on this card, but the Vikings called him up in case Adrian Peterson couldn’t go this Sunday.
Myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be discussing our best bets for Saturday’s Strikeforce event. Before making any wagers on tomorrow’s card, make sure to stay up to date on the Strikeforce – Henderson VS. Babalu odds and check out who other well-informed MMA bloggers are picking over at MMAMoneyLine’s Strikeforce – Henderson VS. Babalu Pros’ Picks. So like Big John McCarthy (and any other ref not creative enough to come up with his own like) would say, LETS GET IT ON!
Renato Sobral – Mike Hammersmith +210 on SportBet)
You might not think a decade-old loss would weigh on someone’s mind, but apparently Renato “Babalu” Sobral thinks differently. Following a win over “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler in his last outing, Sobral passed up a shot at the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Title, instead opting to fight Dan Henderson in an attempt to redeem his first professional loss. All too happy to compete at Light Heavyweight again, Henderson will look for a definitive win over Sobral and a shot at Rafael Cavalcante‘s title if he can get one over on Sobral again.
Henderson is one of the greatest fighters of his generation, and makes for a tough test for anyone at any weight class. Even still, Henderson’s best years are clearly behind him, and his best work has been done at middle, or middleweight opponents outside this weight. While Sobral doesn’t bring anything Henderson hasn’t seen in a thirty-three match and thirteen year career, the question is if he can handle a full-sized Light Heavyweight at this point.
While Henderson does have one punch power and some high-level wrestling, he hasn’t been able to shine at Light Heavyweight in quite some time. The fact of the matter is, if Quinton Jackson could out-wrestle Henderson at 205lbs, the much more technical Sobral shouldn’t have much issue with the task either. Short of Henderson landing a monster punch, Sobral has the boxing to keep Henderson at jab range and the counter-wrestling to take top if the older fighter tries for the take down. In a competitive bout, Sobral takes a close decision over the tough-as-nails Henderson.
Benji Radach – MMAMoneyLine (+120 on Bodog)
I was flip flopping on this fight up until the beginning of this week. Here is a stream of consciousness look at what I’m thinking about this fight. Concerning Ovince St. Preux, he is coming off an impressive win against Antwain Britt, his striking looked pretty good, his back defense looked more than serviceable, and he is bigger than most of Radach’s past opponents (Radach usually fights at Middleweight, St. Preux is a Light Heavyweight). Concerning Benji Radach, he is a consumate veteran of the sport facing very tough guys like Scott Smith, Gerald Harris, Brian Foster, Chris Leben, and Sean Sherk. Radach has 26 pro fights with 17 knockouts; the guy hits like a train but has a questionable chin with 5 knockout losses.
When it comes down to it, I’m playing the line here. St. Preux, a relative newcomer to MMA, is a favorite over a wily veteran like Radach because he is coming off of a win and Radach is coming off of a loss. Although Ovince St. Preux did beat Antwain Britt, he lost a round and the last round of that fight was pretty much two gassed guys trying to gut it out. Although Benji Radach lost his last fight to Scott Smith, he was arguably winning two rounds before getting knocked out in the third by the King of Comebacks. I believe this line to be overinflated in St. Preux favor because of the two fighters respective previous fights. I also believe this fight will take place on the feet, and will take Radach’s knockout power and stamina over St. Preux’s inexperience and gas tank issues.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Henderson/TKO/2
Daley/KO/2
Silva/TKO/1
Lawler/KO/2
Radach/TKO/3
Yeah…that’s 5 knockouts. You heard it here first.
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Radach – .5 u. at +120 on Bodog