Josh Barnett (31-5) vs. Daniel Cormier (9-0)
The highly anticipated Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, which began almost a year ago meanders to an anticlimactic conclusion this Saturday, May 19th. This was an event that was supposed to bring back the drama and spectacle of the old Pride Grand Prix’s from Japan. It started with both Fedor Emelianenko and Alistair Overeem competing along with a strong supporting cast. We were supposed to see eight of the best heavyweights in the world fight for the Strikeforce belt over three exciting events. Instead, we saw Alistair Overeem’s worst performance in years and we watched Fedor have the torch he carried for so long ripped from his hands. This was not what we expected. But as one legend is pushed out of the sport, we may be seeing the arrival of a new star. And before he can be officially established as a top heavyweight in the world, he has one more veteran to dispatch.
Saturday’s main event between Daniel Cormier and Josh Barnett is more about Cormier than Barnett. Despite the fact that Cormier is only one year younger than Barnett, he feels like an up and comer while Barnett feels like a grizzled veteran. And in MMA terms, those would be accurate descriptions. Barnett has been competing for fifteen years and has fought in every major organization over his polarizing career. Barnett has had multiple PED and licensing issues but has been clean thus far in his Strikeforce run. His game is a known entity. He’s well-rounded with solid striking and high level submission grappling. His catch wrestling is different than the typical Brazillian Jiu-Jitsu grappling most fighters employ and can be problematic for those who haven’t faced it. But given Cormier’s Olympic background, it seems unlikely that Barnett will be able to get him to the ground. More than likely, this fight will take place on the feet. And if that’s the case, both fighters will be working the less established aspect of their game.
Cormier’s game is less of a known entity than Barnett’s and his skill set is still growing significantly between fights. With only nine fights, Cormier is far less experienced than Barnett but he has shown flashes of athleticism and explosiveness that could pose serious problems for his more established opponent. With his first fight coming at age thirty after a distinguished wrestling career featuring multiple Olympic appearances, many people questioned whether Cormier would be able to develop an MMA skill set quickly enough to have a major impact in the sport. His surprising knockout of the granite-chinned Antonio Silva in his last fight suggested that he may be progressing more quickly than expected. A similar performance against Barnett would thrust Cormier into the upper echelon of the heavyweight division but a decision victory is much more likely than a finish. The only fighters to finish Barnett in his storied career are Mirko Cro-Cop and Pedro Rizzo. If Cormier adds his name to that list, the rest of the heavyweight division will have to take notice.
The bookmakers have this fight listed as basically a pick ‘em with Barnett at -120 and Cormier at -110. That seems appropriate considering that we will likely be looking at a striking match between two fighters who prefer to be on the ground. Based on the growth arc displayed by Cormier over his last few fights, I have to think that he’s going to come out and show us even more than his has in the past. If that’s the case, I expect that he’ll be a little too much for Barnett to handle. However, if Barnett can use his significant reach advantage to keep Cormier on the outside, we could see the end of Cormier’s undefeated record. Barnett will need to use kicks and jabs to keep Cormier from closing the distance and using the power punches he showed against Silva. With such a clear advantage in terms of submission skill on the ground, Barnett should be able to kick freely and that will be the key for him. So while this isn’t the fight we expected to see when this Grand Prix was announced, we will definitely learn something about the future of the heavyweight division.