Strikeforce – Diaz VS Daley goes down tonight in Nick Diaz’s back yard of San Diego, California. Two Strikeforce straps will be up for grabs as Nick Diaz takes on dynamite fisted Paul Daley for the Welterweight championship and Gilbert Melendez squares off against Tatsuya Kawajiri for the Lightweight belt.
I’m going to keep this writeup short and sweet because, to be perfectly honest, there isn’t a whole lot to say about this card. Make sure to check out MMAMoneyLine’s Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Daley odds and Strikeforce – Diaz VS. Daley Pros’ Picks before throwing your hard earned money down!
Nick Diaz/Gilbert Melendez/Gegard Mousasi – MMAMoneyLine (-225/-225/-420 on BetUS)
The smart play for tonight’s card is a parlay with Nick Diaz, Gilbert Melendez, and Gegard Mousasi. I’ve put a fair amount of thought into each of these fights and keep coming to the same conclusion: the favorites and going to win and may very well be undervalued.
The dynamic Nick Diaz is facing a one trick pony in Paul Daley. Can Daley’s one trick put Diaz asleep early? Absolutely. However, Diaz has very good boxing and is one of the toughest fighters in MMA. In the mental aspect of the fight, Diaz has a huge advantage. The UFC buyout of Strikeforce is probably the worst thing that could have happened to Paul Daley’s career. Now, Daley’s boss is Dana White…a promoter who cut Daley after his cheap shot on Josh Koscheck and vowed never to have the Brit back in the Octagon. Since the announcement, Daley has been all over Twitter bitchin’ up a storm over his precarious position. On the flip side, Diaz has a ton of momentum, is a guy the UFC would love to have, and is fighting in/near his hometown in Southern California. Diaz is a no brainer here to me under -250.
To be blunt, it is going to be hard for anyone to beat Gilbert Melendez. He has shown fans everything: wrestling, striking, toughness, resilience, stamina, consistency, etc. I have a ton of respect for Kawajiri, but I’m still not sold on the quality of Japanese crossover talent. Many American mixed martial artists who enjoy a strong wrestling base are able to stifle the Japanese MMA style and this point has been proven over and over again. No reason it should be any different here, and anything better than -250 is a very good line for Melendez.
Aaaaaaand Gegard Mousasi versus Keith Jardine. Jardine has pulled rabbits out of his hat before against Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell, but I think he might be all out of surprises. Everyone has caught on to his unconventional style, and Mousasi will simply outclass the former UFC Light Heavyweight tonight.
Go with a Diaz/Melendez/Mousasi parlay for tonight’s Strikeforce event…it is the best play.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Diaz/SUB/4
Melendez/UD
Beerbohm/SD
Mousasi/TKO/2
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Diaz/Melendez/Mousasi – 2 u. on BetUS