Strikeforce Welterweight Championship bout: Nick Diaz vs. Paul Daley
Odds: (-270 Diaz / +210 Daley )
Betting Pick: Diaz
Bet on this fight at: Sportsbook.com
In the main event of the evening, Welterweight champion Nick Diaz faces his toughest challenge yet in the form of destructive British striker Paul “Semtex” Daley. Diaz has consistently defied expectations, mixing his unorthodox but effective striking with a world-class submission game, but Daley is a striker the likes of which he hasn’t had to deal with yet during his recent run. Daley is not much on the ground, but Diaz has shown a tendency to favor striking battles which could get him in a lot of trouble here.
Paul Daley had a successful stint in UFC, but was let go after he threw a late sucker punch after dropping a decision to Josh Koscheck. Since that loss, he has looked very impressive in all of his outings. Daley is an extremely technically sound striker with punching power to spare and rather underrated takedown defense. His game once a fight goes to the ground leaves a lot to be desired, but every punch he throws is a potential fight-ender and he is pretty good at staying upright so he can throw big shots.
Nick Diaz has a very interesting fight style. His jiu-jitsu is excellent and he is one of the more durable fighters in the division. His striking looks very awkward and he throws punches from a variety of angles, and while he doesn’t have much one-punch power he is excellent at combining his punches into combos that overwhelm his opponents with sheer volume. As good as he is standing, he is better on the ground, but he tends to prefer to strike, possibly because he is not a great wrestler and his takedowns are somewhat mediocre.
This is an interesting matchup for a variety of reasons. There is no question that Diaz is the superior submission fighter and that he will have his way with Daley on the ground. The question is whether or not he will be able to secure takedowns against the stouter, stronger Daley, or if he will even have any interest in taking this fight down. It is quite possible that Diaz will want to stand and trade shots as he has so often in the past. If that happens, it’s hard to predict the winner. On paper, Daley is the superior striker and clearly the more powerful of the two, but Diaz’s unorthodox style gives technical strikers fits and his tremendous handspeed and accuracy allow him to beat superior strikers to the punch quite frequently. In the end, I think that Diaz’s awkward style and superior versatility will allow him to stay in this. He should be able to clinch effectively if he gets in trouble on the feet, and eventually this fight will find its way to the ground and Diaz will find a way to exploit Daley’s questionable submission defense. Diaz by submission. It is worth noting, though, that at +180 or so a guy with Daley’s one-punch knockout potential is never a bad idea, even though I think Diaz is more likely to win.
Prediction: Nick Diaz via third round rear naked choke.
- Daley @ +210 is worth putting down a small bet.
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