Strikeforce St. Louis – Heavy Artillery Predictions

In case you missed MMAMoneyLine’s picks for UFC 113, we’re doing something a little different around here.  Mike Hammersmith, a friend and freelance MMA writer for sites like MMAMafia, will be giving MMAMoneyLine viewers another viewpoint along with additional analysis and recommendations.
Here are myself and Mike’s top two picks for this weekend’s Strikeforce St. Louis […]

In case you missed MMAMoneyLine’s picks for UFC 113, we’re doing something a little different around here.  Mike Hammersmith, a friend and freelance MMA writer for sites like MMAMafia, will be giving MMAMoneyLine viewers another viewpoint along with additional analysis and recommendations.

Here are myself and Mike’s top two picks for this weekend’s Strikeforce St. Louis – Heavy Artillery card. To check out Mike’s picks for the full Strikeforce card, check out his writeup at MMAMafia or MMAMoneyLine’s Strikeforce St. Louis – Heavy Artillery Pros’ Picks.

 

Antwain BrittMike Hammersmith (+150 on Bodog/Sportsbook)

Antwain Britt might be best known as the man who made it onto TUF 8, only to quickly make it off TUF 8 due to a broken hand.  Not to be deterred, Britt has gone 7-2 since then with impressive wins over former UFC fighters Antonio Mendes and Carmelo Marrero.  While he hasn’t made as many waves in the MMA world as Rafael Cavalcante, he brings a style of fighting that gives him the nickname “The Juggernaut” with aggressive takedowns and ground and pound that has wilted eight of his opponents in the first round.
While Cavalcante has an aggressive style of his own, reminiscent of the Chute Boxe glory days, he doesn’t have the takedown defense or cardio to engage in Britt’s kind of fight.  Expect Britt to make it past the initial flurry from Cavalcante and grind the Brazilian down with his top-heavy game.  In a competitive bout, Britt looks good to me at +150.

 

Kevin RandlemanMike Hammersmith (+350 on Bookmaker)

Let me start this by saying I’ve been watching Randleman fight since UFC 19, and as a fan, have been along for the ride in his biggest wins and saddest moments, both inside and outside the cage.  The most important part of sports betting is taking your heart out of any decisions you make though, and oftentimes I find myself laying good money down on whoever happens to be standing across from Randleman in the cage.  While Randleman has been on a steady decline over the years, and with a skill set that is swiftly falling behind the curve in even middle-tier organizations, this is actually a fight he has a chance to win.

Enter Roger Gracie, who is one of the greatest Heavyweight grapplers on the planet, and a man who has thoroughly dominated ADCC and Mundials alike.  While Gracie can undoubtedly hold his own against anyone on the mat, submission grappling isn’t MMA, and he’s going to be in a rough fight with Randleman.

Randleman brings decent boxing skills, high-level wrestling, and most importantly, a world of experience in MMA and big-stage fights.  While I have no doubt Gracie can mop the floor with Randleman on the ground, he’s going to have to force the fight to the mat and will have to deal with fast, competent hands and a gas tank proven to last three rounds. That, combined with his renewed training with Xtreme Couture make Randleman a nice flier at +350.

 

Alistair Overeem – MMAMoneyLine (-270 on BetOnline)

Hey look, the Strikeforce Heavyweight champion is actually fighting…how novel.  All jabs aside, this fight is big for both fighters.  Overeem is looking to get a shot against Fedor Emelianenko; a fight where a win for Overeem could really cement his MMA legacy.  Brett Rogers is pretty fortunate in my opinion to get such a high level fight coming off a loss, even though that loss was to the aforementioned Last Emperor.

We all know Rogers’ strengths.  The Grim has one punch KO power and good size.  He was able to use that size in the fight against an undersized Emelianenko to his advantage before getting dropped.  However, the 2010 Alistair Overeem is far from 230 lbs.

Overeem is the better striker…Demolition Man is one of the best Heavyweight strikers in MMA.  He also has underrated grappling skills and has a sound arsenal of chokes.  Alistair’s devastating striking also translates well on the ground, where his ground and pound is dangerous as his knees.

Rogers has a win over a glass chinned Andrei Arlovski and a hard found loss to a 30 pounds lighter Fedor Emelianenko.  In my opinion, Rogers is a hell of a prospect but still overrated right now.  Overeem has the power and technical acumen to land that same punch that Emelianenko floored Rogers with.  I haven’t even entertained the thought that Rogers can beat Overeem here.

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Overeem/KO/2

Arlovski/UD

Gracie/SUB/1

Souza/SUB/2

Ribeiro/SD

Britt/UD

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Britt – 1 u. at +150 on Sportsbook

Overeem – 1.5 u. at -270 on BetOnline

Overeem/Souza/Gracie parlay – .5 u. on Bodog