After reading this article on CagePotato, I was moved to do my own analysis of the current state of the UFC Welterweight division. The gentlemen over at CagePotato raise some very valid points and echo the sentiment of many MMA blogs and fans. The UFC Welterweight division is currently facing a number of problems, the biggest of which is the repetitive nature atop the division. The scheduled UFC Welterweight championship fight between Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck is a rematch. Assuming St. Pierre is victorious, his next championship defense against Jon Fitch is a rematch. Even if Thiago Alves beat Jon Fitch at UFC 117, St. Pierre/Alves and Koscheck/Alves fight have both been done. In addition to the St. Pierre/Koscheck/Fitch/Alves mundane foursome, the current champion has also soundly defeated three other Welterweights in the top 20 (Dan Hardy, Matt Hughes and Matt Serra).
Several other factors also attribute to the lack of excitement surrounding the future of the UFC Welterweight division. Jake Shields, the UFC’s newest big-name addition, is legendary for his plodding fighting style. Another main point of contention is that even if Josh Koscheck were to pull off the miraculous upset, he has expressed in the past that he won’t fight his training partner Jon Fitch. Combine these factors with the steep drop off of competitive Welterweights after the top 5 and you have quite the situation.
Here is a breakdown of the upcoming UFC Welterweight contests, in addition to my outlook into the future of the once-landmark UFC division. Let’s see what we really have to look forward to in late 2010 through 2011. Be warned, this is an article to sink your teeth into; it is not for the faint of heart!
UFC Welterweight matchups that are scheduled or rumored:
The Contenders
(1)Georges St. Pierre VS. (5)Josh Koscheck – UFC 124
The two coaches of the upcoming season of the Ultimate Fighter will be duking it out in December. Koscheck, who is coming off of three straight wins, will be looking to avenge his loss at UFC 74. Koscheck’s heelish antics on the reality show will be about the most exciting part of this fight, as many people (including me) expect the champion to easily defend his title here. St. Pierre has the edge in every aspect of this fight, including wrestling. Unless Koscheck is able to land a Serra-esque shot, this one will be a dominant five-round decision.
(2)Jake Shields VS. (10)Martin Kampmann – UFC 121
Poor Martin Kampmann. I like everything about “The Hitman”; he’s an exciting, tough, well rounded fighter who deserves to be at the top of the Welterweight heap. Unfortunately for him, Jake Shields has beaten better strikers (Paul Daley), better wrestlers (Dan Henderson) and better BJJ players (Jason Miller) than Kampmann. He also has a decision win over Carlos Condit, a fighter with a lot of stylistic similarities to Kampmann. Shields takes a decision here and is likely in line for a title shot in late 2011.
(7)Dan Hardy VS. (21)Carlos Condit – UFC 120
This is probably the most exciting fight at the top of the UFC Welterweight division. In their last five fights, these two have been involved in four split decisions. Both guys are as game as they come, and this fight is going to steal the show in England. I’m giving an edge to “The Outlaw” in this fight because of his crushing punching power and Condit’s willingness to stand and trade. The winner of this fight is likely one win away from a title shot.
(13)Chris Lytle VS. (19)Matt Serra – UFC 119
Great piece of matchmaking by Joe Silva. This fight has an interesting dynamic: Lytle, who is a former professional boxer, is coming off two submission victories while Serra, a world class jiu jitsu player, has gotten his last two Ws courtesy of his knockout power. This is a rematch of Serra and Lytle’s fight at the Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale in 2006, which Matt Serra won via split decision. It was a close fight four years ago, but it won’t be in September. Lytle is far more improved and should outwork a tough as nails “Terrah” later this summer.
(17)Nate Diaz VS. (22)Marcus Davis – UFC 118
Nate Diaz is the 17th ranked Welterweight, which is pretty impressive considering he’s a Lightweight. His win over Rory Markham must have made quite an impression. His victory over Marcus Davis is going to propel the younger Diaz into the thick of the Welterweight hunt. Davis is tailor-made for Diaz: he won’t be able to knock Nate out or submit him. The difference in this fight is going to be that hyper-active Diaz striking combined with Marcus Davis’ withering gas tank in the late rounds.
(11)John Hathaway VS. (36)Mike Pyle – UFC 120
John Hathaway is arguably the hottest prospect in the UFC’s 170 lb. division. The undefeated Brit has bested three very tough mixed martial artists in his short UFC career, with his crowning achievement being an absolute destruction of Diego Sanchez. Mike Pyle replaced an injured Dong Hyun Kim to take on Hathaway at UFC 120, which is a useful result for Hathaway. He will have a much easier time with Pyle than he would have with Kim. Although Pyle is an MMA vet with respected submission ability, I think the kid is going to be too much for him.
Possible Contenders
(24)Paulo Thiago VS. (27)Diego Sanchez
Both Thiago and Sanchez have been very close to a title shot, with Sanchez actually earning a title shot at 155. However, Thiago and Sanchez are coming off tough decision losses at the hands of Martin Kampmann and John Hathaway respectively. This fight will push the winner over the hump of the Welterweight division, sending the loser back down to gatekeeper status. Thiago/Sanchez is a very tough fight to call; both fighters are skilled, well rounded and nearly impossible to finish. In a close fight, I go with the wrestler with sound submission defense. That fighter is Sanchez, and he gets his first win at Welterweight since June 2008.
(37)Mike Pierce VS. (UR)Amilcar Alves
Mike Pierce’s competitive loss against Jon Fitch has done more for Pierce’s career than either of his two UFC wins. Fight Magazine currently lists Pierce as the 37th Welterweight in the world, and he has the daunting task of trying to improve than number in a lose-lose situation. Jose Aldo training partner, Amilcar Alves, will certainly be game for this fight and has the Muay Thai, Judo and BJJ background to pull off an upset here. If Pierce beats an unknown UFC newcomer, his stock won’t go up too much. However, I expect the Brazilian to pull of the upset…perhaps positioning himself to be a future WW contender.
The future of the UFC Welterweight division:
The Contenders
St. Pierre/Koscheck winner VS. (3)Jon Fitch
We’re very likely looking at St. Pierre/Fitch II to main-event a mid-2011 UFC event. To be honest, I’m kind of hoping for a Koscheck upset just to see the chaos in the Dana White/Josh Koscheck/Jon Fitch triangle. Nevertheless, I expect two things from this fight: St. Pierre will be Fitch’s opponent and will beat him soundly (again). Jon Fitch is far from invincible, and a bigger Welterweight with better wrestling will expose him. Look forward to St. Pierre/Shields in late 2011 or early 2012.
Hathaway/Pyle winner VS. Diaz/Davis winner
Hathaway/Diaz is the likely outcome here, although any other combination is far from outside the realm of possibility. I’d like to think that the aforementioned result is what the UFC is looking for: new blood at the top of the Welterweight contender list. Even if the Hathaway/Diaz contender eliminator doesn’t work out, a Pyle/Diaz jiu jitsu fest or a Hathaway/Davis scrap would both be Fight Night main card worthy.
Sanchez/Thiago winner VS. (9)Thiago Alves
Diego Sanchez and Paulo Thiago have been fighting the cream of the crop of their divisions, and the winner of their fight should continue to do so. Assuming Thiago Alves can get his weight under control (I was compelled to make a Thiago Alves/Anthony Johnson weight making elimination fight), this could be a fresh, entertaining fight for the 170 class. A possible Sanchez/Alves fight has solid name value and good drawing power; an excellent co-main event or main card fight. Beyond that, a Thiago/Alves tilt (see what I did there?) could also be a competitive contest to move one of these former contenders back up the ladder.
Lytle/Serra winner VS. Hardy/Condit winner
Staying consistent with my earlier breakdowns, I believe (and am silently hoping) a Chris Lytle/Dan Hardy fight is on deck for 2011. If you don’t want to see that slug fest, you should probably stop watching MMA. A fight the magnitude of Hardy/Lytle could very well be the Garcia/Jung of 2011. If this fight does happen, I’d honestly put in on a free Spike prelim if I was the UFC brass (even though it is clearly a main-card fight. This fight would establish a top five UFC Welterweight and give a wrestling-centric weight class a little bit of explosiveness.
(4)Matt Hughes VS. (32)Dennis Hallman
Mark my words, this fight happens. Matt Hughes is at the point of his career where he is looking for interesting fights rather than rank-elevating opponents. The Ricardo Almeida, Renzo Gracie and Matt Serra fights are clear examples of this. What better storyline for a fight than the greatest Welterweight in the history of MMA facing the one man who has gone 2-0 against him. To me, its almost like karma that Hallman and Hughes both pulled off upsets at 117. I was under the impression that a future Hughes/Hallman fight was the sole purpose of signing “Superman”. I don’t think this fight gets either fighter a shot at the belt, but it is easily promotable.
Shields/Kampmann loser VS. (8)Jake Ellenberger
Jake Ellenberger need a big fight. Two TKO victories over two very respectable mixed martial artists on the heels of a split decision loss than could have gone either way makes Jake Ellenberger probably the brightest 170 lb. prospect not named John Hathaway. The UFC tossed this kid in the deep end against the likes of Carlos Condit, Mike Pyle and John Howard, so its obvious they aren’t giving him the Jon Jones treatment. He is an exciting fighter, and a possible showdown with Martin Kampmann could blow the roof off a venue. The fight makes sense no matter who wins the Shields/Kampmann fight.
St. Pierre/Koscheck loser VS. Hardy/Condit loser
Koscheck versus Condit…I like it. The odds are long against a St. Pierre/Hardy rematch or a St. Pierre/Condit scrap (although that one would be interesting), so Koscheck VS. Hardy/Condit is highly probable. Despite who loses the Hardy/Condit fight at UFC 120, a Welterweight fight comprised of two of the three will be fresh, exciting and marketable. Koscheck and Hardy have already had some heated words after the Koscheck/Daly fight, so that piece of matchmaking is a no brainer. The more likely outcome, Koscheck/Condit, will pit the world class wrestler against a well rounded fighter with dangerous striking, submissions and an iron chin.
Possible Contenders
(28)Anthony Johnson VS. (39)John Howard
Hathaway/Pyle loser VS. (43)Mike Swick
Sanchez/Thiago loser VS. Diaz/Davis loser
(53)Dustin Hazelett VS. (16)Ricardo Almeida
Lytle/Serra loser VS. (34)Renzo Gracie
(14) Rick Story VS. (15)Dong Hyun Kim
(23)Johny Hendricks VS. (31)Matt Riddle
(46)Ben Saunders VS. (50)Matt Brown
The Rest
(59)TJ Grant VS. (UR)Julio Paulino
(UR)Nick Osipczak VS. (UR)Greg Soto
Grant/Paulino winner VS. (42)Amir Sadollah
(61)DaMarques Johnson VS. (51)James Wilks