The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale takes place this Saturday, June 19 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The new main draw for the capstone event of The Ultimate Fighter 11 reality show will be finalists Court McGee and Kris McCray vying for a UFC contract. The old main event, now assumed the co-main event will be a Light Heavyweight scrap between Matt Hamill and Keith Jardine. Along with these four fighters, TUF 11 participants Jamie Yager, Rich Attonito, Kyle Noke and several others will join the likes of veterans Chris Leben, Aaron Simpson and Spencer Fisher to round out the card.
To be perfectly honest, I don’t see much betting value in this card. There are so many variables with TUF fights that I generally either bet very small amounts or stay away completely. My friend Mike Hammersmith is passing on this card completely, and I can’t really blame him. I personally only feel good about one bet on this card, which I will go into later. For now, check out MMAMoneyLine’s The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Pros’ Picks and the current odds for research purposes.
Mark Holst – MMAMoneyLine (+200 on BetUS)
The guys over at CagePotato did a pretty solid writeup on UFC newcomer Mark Holst. Holst is currently 8-1 with equal knockout and submission victories. His latest win was a locked up kimura against former UFC fighter Corey Hill in March.
When you try out for The Ultimate Fighter and instead of making the show you skip right to a UFC card, it’s impressive (replacement or not). The UFC sees something in the Canadian…it’s not exactly like they’re looking for a can to feed to the surging John Gunderson. Holst is a consummate well rounded mixed martial artist with serious Muay Thai and grappling credentials, not to mention training logged under some of MMA’s best coaches.
Betting on Holst is a bit of a risk seeing as its his first UFC fight, but I’ve not been exactly blown away by Gunderson. Don’t get me wrong, he certainly has a chance to use his pace and wrestling to put Holst on his back. However, I believe the John Gunderson that was controlled by Rafaello Oliveira gets eaten up by Holst. Holst has the tools to finish this fight anywhere, but I think he will walk away with a decisive decision. At the current price Holst is going for, I strongly recommend at least a flier on the UFC newcomer outclassing the vet.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
McGee/SUB/2
Jardine/SD
Simpson/UD
Fisher/TKO/2
Yager/KO/1
Holst/UD
Browne/KO/2
Tavares/UD
Bryant/SD
Hammortree/KO/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Jardine – 1 u. at +135 on Sportsbook
Holst – 1 u. at +300 on Bodog
Bryant – .25 u. at +160 on Sportsbook
Hammortree – .25 u. at+110 on Sportsbook
**Disclaimer – These are the odds I made the bets at, not necessarily the odds at the time of this posting. Although I made these bets, I don’t necessarily recommend them. I’m putting a bit of a flier on both Bryant and Hammortree because of injuries sustained by Noke and Camozzi respectively; I believe the odds to be off, but still too risky to recommend.**