Topuria Vs. Holloway Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

UFC 308 Press Conference — Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria, will clash with former division roost-ruler, Max Holloway, TODAY (Sat., Oct. 26, 2024) at UFC 308 from inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Topuria enters his first title defense with an outright annoying amount of self-confidence, but can anyone blame the 27-year-old “Matador” for feeling atop the world? His UFC career couldn’t be going any more smoothly. The undefeated champion is handing out knockouts with regularity and has utterly dominated all of his opponents — he’s earned a bit of swagger.

On the flip side, Holloway has been the young champion, seen rises and falls, and still emerged as one of the best in the world. Really, who has suffered more painful title defeats and blown away expectations at the highest level more than Holloway? His career is one-of-a-kind, and the Hawaiian can build on his legacy further by dethroning the first standout champion of the next generation.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Topuria vs. Holloway Betting Odds

Ilia Topuria victory: -230
Ilia Topuria via TKO/KO/DQ: +175
Ilia Topuria via submission: +500
Ilia Topuria via decision: +250
Max Holloway victory: +190
Max Holloway via TKO/KO/DQ: +550
Max Holloway via submission: +2500
Max Holloway via decision: +400
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Topuria Wins

Topuria is much more of a bull than matador. He’s not sloppy — with the exception of the Bryce Mitchell fight, in which it was clear Topuria had ZERO regard for his opponent — but Topuria excels at inching toward his opponents, backing them to the fence, then unleashing heinously powerful combinations.

Despite Topuria’s wrestling and grappling expertise, this feels like a striking match, because nobody has ever been able to ground Holloway consistently. It would probably be a waste of energy to really try, though a takedown feint or two is never a bad idea to keep the Hawaiian honest.

For Topuria, this bout is all about closing through Holloway’s varied range offense of jabs, teeps, and side kicks. Holloway is very, very good at stranding opponents on the edge of his feints and distance strikes. Topuria just had to deal with a similar challenge in Alexander Volkanovski, but Holloway has a lot more tools at his disposal.

Getting inside means taking away Holloway’s weapons. Topuria’s calf kick should return with a vengeance, both as a counter to the jab and return off Holloway’s kicks. The Spanish athlete has to be mindful in identifying the real jabs from the fakes — jabbing with Holloway could help here — and then fire when he gets his timing.

Ultimately, Topuria has to make the most of his moments when Holloway’s back is to the fence. Knocking out Holloway may be functionally impossible, but hurting him can still win the fight.

How Holloway Wins

Holloway is the greatest volume striker in UFC history, and he pairs that legendary cardio with a versatile approach to kickboxing. We’ve seen Holloway pressure and fight at distance, work from both stances, and even adjust his positioning entirely based on the opponent.

Despite being one of the most fearsome punchers Holloway has ever faced, this fight may call for an increase in pressure and aggression. Topuria has grown very accustomed to fighters feeling less-than-confident in exchanges, meaning he gets to dictate the pace and explode forward into punches.

We really haven’t seen Topuria forced onto his back foot. Josh Emmett had the power to try, but he’s never been a pressure boxer and was content to work from the outside. Holloway, conversely, has the skill, durability, and experience to try to force Topuria onto his back foot. That’s not to say he should be reckless, but there’s every chance Topuria’s counters aren’t nearly as powerful as his charges.

Otherwise, I’d really like to see Holloway pull out all of his kicking tools here. Topuria fights mostly as a boxer, and Holloway can best take advantage of that with a variety of kicks. He should be side kicking the thigh, blasting power rounds kicks from both stances, spinning, and following punches with high kicks to both sides, trying to catch Topuria slipping into his shin.

Topuria Vs. Holloway Prediction

It’s really hard to go against the fighter who looks the part of a future pound-for-pound king.

Holloway is great and still has plenty left in the tank. He has more tools on the feet and could win the fight in a variety of ways. The head kick knockout shouldn’t be discounted. Unfortunately, it’s just too hard to overlook the fact that Holloway has never been impossible to hit, and Topuria has nuclear bombs in his fists. If any combination is going to put Holloway cold, I would bet on that Topuria 2-3-2.

Bottom line: Holloway gives a good account of himself, but the speed and power of the younger champion generally lets him dictate exchanges and win the fight.

Prediction: Topuria via decision (+250)

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 308 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 10 a.m. ET, followed by the UFC 308 PPV main card start time at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 308: “Topuria vs. Holloway” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the complete UFC 308 fight card and PPV lineup click here.