185 lbs: Chris Leben vs. Aaron Simpson
Odds: (+260 Leben /-340 Simpson )
In the third bout of the televised event, tough slugger Chris “The Crippler” Leben will look to derail the momentum of undefeated prospect Aaron “A-Train” Simpson. Both guys do their best work on their feet, so this one promises to be exciting if nothing else.
Chris Leben, the bad boy of Season 1 of The Ultimate Fighter, is quite a character. Luckily, though, he has the skills to back up his big persona. While he is not the most well-rounded guy in the world, he is an extremely effective and aggressive striker who uses his relentless pace and freakish cardio to overwhelm his opponents. On the ground, he is not a big offensive threat, but he does have good submission defense. Still, if he is going to win against anyone, it is going to be because of his aggression, striking technique, and punching power.
Aaron Simpson, who is undefeated so far at 7-0, is more well-rounded than his opponent. His best stuff is his striking, but he also has a solid takedown game to go with it. Against Leben, his best bet is going to be to try to work the takedowns and put Leben off his game, because in a standup fight Leben’s chin and power are going to give Simpson problems.
I think Leben is an awesome underdog pick here. Simpson is a prohibitive favorite, but he did not look very good in his last fight against Tom Lawlor, despite squeaking out the split decision victory. Leben is a very dangerous fighter in the standup, and if Simpson decides to try his luck there he is going to wind up paying the price. I expect just that to happen. Simpson will hold his own for a while, but eventually Leben will overwhelm him by continuing to move forward, catch him, and put him away with the T/KO for the big upset win.
Prediction: Chris “The Crippler” Leben via second round T/KO.
- Bet on the UnderDog Leben for the Win.
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