Dustin Poirier vs. Jonathan Brookins
It would be a mistake for Brookins to keep this fight standing. He may not have a definitive advantage on the ground, but it will level out the playing field just enough for him to have a chance of emerging as the victor. Both Poirier and Brookins are purple belts in jiu-jitsu, but the striking of Poirier is far superior to that of Brookins. The only way I see Brookins winning is by submitting Poirier, which isn’t too likely, but still possible. I don’t see Brookins getting Poirier down to even make the fight more evenly matched, it’s more likely that Poirier will avoid any takedown attempt and pick Brookins apart on the feet, eventually earning himself a TKO victory.
Melvin Guillard vs. Jamie Varner
It’ll be interesting to see how Guillard performs after being knocked out by the “Cowboy” at UFC 150. Prior to that fight, Guillard had never been knocked out, so this could potentially throw him off his mental game. Even though Guillard has come back from less than adequate performances to finish tough opponents, such as, Dennis Siver, Evan Dunham, and Shane Roller; having a strong performance after his first knockout loss will be his biggest challenge to date. Guillard’s strong points are obviously his striking and aggression, but Varner has excellent boxing that he mixes with his wrestling, which he used to get the better of Ben Henderson and Joe Lauzon until Varner succumbed to a submission in both fights. Because the word jiu-jitsu probably isn’t even in Guillard’s vocabulary. Varner to take Guillard down at will and hold him there without any fear of being submitted. After seeing Varner destroy Edson Barboza, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was able to finish Guillard, but it’s more likely Varner out wrestles Guillard for all three rounds.
Pat Barry vs. Shane del Rosario
Both of these fighters are outstanding kick boxers, but when it comes to actual credentials, del Rosario takes the cake. Even if their striking skills are dead even, del Rosario will have the advantage just based on the reach advantage he possess. Chances are that this fight will be a stand up war, but if the fight does go to the ground, del Rosario has a more advanced jiu-jitsu game than Barry. The common opponent they share is Lavar Johnson, where Barry fell victim to his knockout power, but del Rosario submitted him by armbar in the first round. Del Rosario’s second fight back since his layoff should be substantially better than his first, and he should be successful in out striking Barry to get a unanimous decision win.
Mike Ricci vs. Colton Smith
Smith is good with his wrestling, but that’s about all he has in his arsenal. Eddy Ellis was gave Smith much trouble while on the feet and was close to knocking him out, but Smith was able to get the fight to the ground and take control. Ricci has better technical striking than Ellis, and far better ground skills, including superior takedown defense. Ricci will stick to a simple game plan as he avoids the take down attempts and pick Smith apart with his striking. Smith tends to fade as the fight goes on, so Ricci should get the knockout victory in the third round.
Roy Nelson vs. Matt Mitrione
Mitrione is fairly well rounded, but Nelson has too many advantages to not walk away the victor. The striking between the two will be closely contested, but Nelson has the one punch knockout power that Mitrione has only showcased against lower level competition. Mitrione has been improving in his grappling, but Nelson will have a significant advantage in the ground game. No matter where this fight takes place, Nelson will have the advantage and achieve victory be knockout, submission or decision.
Written by: Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek