Reuben Duran vs. Hugo Viana
Viana only has six professional MMA fights, and every one of them has gone to a decision. He has yet to finish any of his opponents, and for that reason, it doesn’t seem very likely that he will finish Duran. On the other hand, Duran has finished seven of his eight fights, with three coming by knockout, and four by submission. If the fight doesn’t see the final bell, it should be Duran who gets his hand raised. Duran lost a close split decision to elite bantamweight, Takeya Mizugaki, and then submitted Francisco Rivera just two months later. Most of his wins come in the first round, so I’m not to concerned with any potential conditioning issues after being absent for eighteen months. Duran will look to finish early, and lock up a submission before the first round ends.
Mike Rio vs. John Cofer
What we have here, is a fight between two wrestlers. I could debate which of the two is the better wrestler all day, but the fight will be determined on who has the superior skills in the other aspects of MMA. When it comes to jiu-jitsu, they both seem even matched, but I can’t help but think that Rio has a slight edge. He’s won multiple fights by rear naked choke, including the one he secured to make it on the fifteenth season of The Ultimate Fighter. Cofer is a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has three submission wins of his own, all which are chokes as well. The wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be nearly even, but Cofer’s striking has been more impressive than Rio’s, and that will give him an advantage every second the fight is on the feet. Cofer should feel more comfortable in this fight after having his official UFC debut, and over dangerous opponent, Justin Lawrence. Rio has been on the sidelines healing from two broken ribs and may not have been training as diligent as he could’ve been. Cofer has enough going for him to increase the odds of getting his hand raised, and should win unanimous decision.
Jared Papazian vs. Tim Elliot
Papazian’s fights are unpredictable. He was supposed to get destroyed by Mike Easton, but instead he made it a back and forth fight all three rounds. Based on his performance against Easton, most predictions had him defeating Dustin Pague, but instead, he was submitted in the first round. Elliot has good Muay Thai skills, and he isn’t afraid to throw unorthodox strikes while fighting. This style of striking gave current number one flyweight contender, John Dodson, more trouble than anticipated. In fact, Elliot’s loss to Dodson was controversial and many people thought he should’ve gotten the nod. Cardio shouldn’t be an issue for either fighter, so it’s all about who breaks first. It’s likely that Elliot will use unorthodox strikes to catch Papazian off guard, and he will be successful in throwing off his timing to win the fight on the feet. If takedowns are a factor in this fight, that will be another advantage for Elliot as well. Whether the fights stays on the feet of goes to the ground, Elliot does enough to win himself a unanimous decision.
Johnny Bedford vs. Marcos Vinicus
Bedford is coming off a year long layoff, but after Vinicus’ fight with Wagner Campos, I’m confident that Bedford will be the superior striker and wrestler, even if the layoff has a negative affect on his performance. Vinicus was outclassed by Campos for over two rounds until he landed that one lucky punch and put Campos on wobbly legs. From there, he when in for the kill and threw a plethora of punches until Herb Dean stopped the fight. If Vinicus has a performance like he did in the first two rounds against Campos, Bedford shouldn’t have any issue controlling the stand up, avoiding the takedown, and finishing Vinicus just like he was able to finish Louis Gaudinot.
Vinc Pichel vs. Rustam Khabilov
Both fighters will be making their UFC debut in this fight, but Pichel may not feel octagon jitters due to his time spent on The Ultimate Fighter. Pichel undefeated in his professional MMA career and has all of his seven wins by knockout or TKO, but he showcased his submissions skills on The Ultimate Fighter by submitting John Cofer with an arm triangle. Khabilov on the other hand, is a world champion in Sambo so this should be a classic striker vs. grappler match, with Pichel trying to keep the fight standing and Khabilov initiating a takedown. One this to note, is that Khabilov is twice as experienced as Pichel and has faced a higher level of competition as well. In his fifteen professioanl MMA fights, Khabilov has only lost once, and it was by split decision. There’s always the chance that Pichel could throw that one heavy shot and connect with Khabilov’s chin, but it’s more likely that Khabilov uses his Sambo skills, control the fight, and win a unanimous decision.
TJ Waldburger vs. Nick Catone
Waldburger has a dangerous jiu-jitsu style, with the ability to submit just about anybody. He tapped both Mike Stumpf and Jake Hecht in a combined time of just under five minutes, and even gave the experienced MMA veteran, Brian Ebersole, a run for his money by constantly attacking with submission attempts off his back. Ebersole may have been able to avoid getting submitted, but Catone won’t be as fortunate. Catone doesn’t possess the submission defense that Ebersole does, and Waldburger has comes closer to submitting him than other jiu-jitsu savvy fighters he’s faced, such as, Chris Lytle, Dennis Hallman, and Claude Patrick. Catone has been submitted only once in his professioanl MMA career, but he’s never faced an opponent who will attacked off his back as aggressively as Waldburger. The majority of Waldburger’s wins don’t go past the first round, but as we‘ve seen in his fight with Brian Ebersole, if the submission doesn’t come, he will continue to work for the submission even until the final seconds of the fight. Catone is a strong and experienced wrestler, but his wrestling will not stifle the jiu-jitsu of Waldburger, and he will eventually force Catone to tap.
Mike Pyle vs. James Head
Ever since dropping down to welterweight, Head has gone 2-0, defeating Papy Abedi and Brian Ebersole. Head’s victories really showcase his ability to compete with good strikers as well as talented grapplers, but Pyle has done the same in defeating John Hathaway, Ricardo Almeida, and Josh Neer. Both Pyle and Head have showcased there Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but it will be the wrestling of Pyle that will give him a significant edge on the ground. Not only is Pyle ranked higher in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but he has far better takedowns which will let him put the fight where he wishes. In his fight against Brian Ebersole, Head was taken down multiple times by the superior wrestler, but it was his striking that ultimately won him the fight. Pyle’s striking is considerably better than Ebersole’s so Head will not be able tee off on Pyle the way he was able to against Ebersole. Head may have a slight advantage in the striking, but the gap in their ground game is much bigger, and for than reason, Pyle has the better chance on getting the win.
Written by: Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek