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TUF 24 Finale predictions, preview, and analysis
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is tying a ribbon around season 24 of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24 combat sports reality show (recaps), which happened to be one of the better seasons in terms of mixed martial arts (MMA) competition.
But it featured a bunch of little people so almost nobody watched it.
Those who did will no doubt be anxious to see how the live finale unfolds this Saturday night (Dec. 3, 2016) on FOX Sports 1 (“Prelims” on UFC Fight Pass) from inside Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Leading the charge will be UFC flyweight kingpin Demetrious Johnson, as he takes on TUF 24 champion Tim Elliot. In the five-round co-main event, former division title contenders (and opposing TUF 24 coaches) Joseph Benavidez and Henry Cejudo slug it out to see who stays alive in the 125-pound title chase.
For a comprehensive look at this weekend’s “Prelims” cards, courtesy of MMA Maestro Patty Stumberg, click here and here. Latest odds and betting lines for all the match ups at TUF 24 Finale can be located here.
Now then, let’s get to work.
125 lbs.: UFC Flyweight Champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson (24-2-1) vs. Tim Elliot (13-6-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: Tim Elliot, like Henry Cejudo before him, finagled a flyweight title shot without having to prove he actually deserved one. Neither fighter was tasked with getting past Joseph Benavidez or John Dodson, two of the finest 125-pound fighters in the world.
That’s not to suggest Elliot is a tomato can.
He did what all great fighters do when they hit a rough patch. After getting cut from UFC in early 2015, Elliot went to Titan Fighting Championship and won three in a row, capturing the flyweight title in the process.
Then came four wins in the TUF house.
That’s a seven-fight winning streak (spare me the “exhibition” crap) and one of his best attributes is his unpredictability. Elliot does a good job of working funny angles, has great submissions, and can take down anyone in the flyweight division.
So can Johnson.
Even if Elliot can outstrike Johnson (he can’t) or outwrestle him (he won’t), the one thing he’ll never be able to do is outpace him. “Mighty Mouse” does that Secretariat thing where he actually gets faster and stronger as time goes on.
It’s fun to watch his exhausted opponents break mid-fight.
I would expect Elliot to come out aggressively and throw the kitchen sink at Johnson, who is no longer the decision maker he once was. The champ racked up five violent finishes over the past few years, and that includes stoppages over Benavidez and Cejudo. There simply isn’t a more complete fighter in the game today.
Expect a quick workout.
Final prediction: Johnson def. Elliot by submission
125 lbs.: Joseph Benavidez (24-4) vs. Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo (10-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: Henry Cejudo is ranked No. 2 at 125 pounds, which I find surprising when you consider that he A) was obliterated by Demetrious Johnson and B) has just one win over a top 15 fighter.
That was a split decision against Jussier Formiga.
“The Messenger” was able to build up an impressive win streak on the strength of his Olympic-caliber wrestling. It also helped that he was fighting the cream of the crap, like the 0-7 Michael Poe and the 1-27 Miguelito Marti.
Yes, 1-27.
I don’t see anything across his current body of work, which also includes a couple of weight-cutting fails, that would lead me to pick him over Joseph Benavidez. It’s a shame we never got to see “Joe Jitsu” battle John Dodson, but that’s the way the “Magician” crumbles.
Benavidez, before dropping down to 125 pounds, was the second best bantamweight in the division, falling only to Dominick Cruz. In fact, he took “Dominator” and “Mighty Mouse” to split decisions at WEC 50 and UFC 152, respectively.
With a resume that spans more than a decade, a wealth of experience against the world’s top fighters, and one of the most well-rounded arsenals in this (or any) division, I just don’t see how Benavidez loses this fight.
Final prediction: Benavidez def. Cejudo by unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger (31-11) vs. Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal (30-11)
Nostradumbass predicts: Jake Ellenberger was able to win a stay of execution after a dreadful 1-5 streak over the past few years. That came in the form of a technical knockout win over Matt Brown at UFC 201.
Don’t break out the bubbly just yet.
Ellenberger has always been a powerful striker and let’s face it, Matt Brown is known for his brittle body. It was a great win, no doubt, but I need to see more before I’m ready to declare “The Juggernaut” is back. Maybe that was the confidence boost he needed?
We’ll find out against “Gamebred.”
Jorge Masvidal is probably the most inconsistent athlete in the game today and has more decisions (25) than most fighters have total fights. He’s not the most aggressive striker, but he employs a potent jab and likes to mix in takedowns.
He also takes an inordinate amount of damage in the early going.
That’s a risky proposition against a power puncher like Ellenberger and there isn’t a lot of room for growing pains in a three-round fight. When push comes to shove Masvidal is still the fresher, more tenacious fighter and his history of durability in dangerous fights makes him the safer pick.
Or the boring pick.
Final prediction: Masvidal def. Ellenberger by unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier (8-1) vs. Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba (12-2, 1 NC)
Nostradumbass predicts: I have a soft spot in my heart for Jared Cannonier because the first time I said his name out loud, my ride-or-die homie thought I said “Jared, can of beer.” Since his name is Jared too, he brought me a can of beer and we ended up getting shitfaced.
There’s much more to the story, but in the off chance the SB Nation executives read this column, I need to spare you the Hangover-esque details.
Let’s just say that cow had a lot to moo about.
Anyway, Jared Cannonier rebounded from a UFC debut loss to Shawn Jordan by crushing Cyril Asker at UFC Fight Night 86. That amateur snuff film pushed his finishing rate to roughly 88 percent.
There’s a reason they call him “Killa Gorilla.”
Like his fight night foe, Ion Cutelaba was also put away in his Octagon debut, only to come back and notch an impressive win in his follow-up fight. For “The Hulk,” that came in the form of a unanimous decision nod over Jonathan Wilson last October.
Cannonier is coming down from heavyweight and packs a wallop. Unfortunately, he’s fighting a durable opponent with menacing hands and aggressive offense. Unless the former lands the one-hitter quitter, the latter will overwhelm him with strikes.
Early in the first round sounds about right to me.
Final prediction: Cutelaba def. Cannonier by knockout
135 lbs.: Alexis “Ally-Gator” Davis (17-6) vs. Sara McMann (9-3)
Nostradumbass predicts: Since pounding out Sheila Gaff at UFC 159 in her Octagon debut, I have yet to see an outing from Sara McMann that I would consider impressive. In fact, she’s dropped three of her last five and got finished twice.
Her most recent performance was a three-round snoozer over Jessica Eye in a “fight” that was just plain awful.
Working in her favor is her brute power and athleticism, two things Alexis Davis does not have. In addition, the “Ally-Gator” has not competed since her submission win over Sarah Kaufman in April 2015.
Maternity leave saw to that.
Davis is the better fighter thanks to a more well-rounded skill set, but I can’t help but wonder — particularly in a three-round fight — if the stronger, more active McMann can’t steal two rounds by spamming takedowns.
Judges love that shit. Fans? Not so much…
Final prediction: McMann def. Davis via split decision
125 lbs.: Ryan “Baby Face” Benoit (9-4) vs. Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno (12-3)
Patrick Stumberg (filling in for Nostradumbass on this one) predicts: Ranked sixteenth of sixteen on TUF 24, Moreno fell in the opening round but acquitted himself well against top-seeded Alexandre Pantoja. Undaunted, he stepped up on short notice to submit Louis Smolka at Fight Night 96 and pick up his ninth consecutive pro victory. He’s submitted nine opponents overall, seven of them in the first round.
“Baby Face” opened his UFC career with a Fight of the Night battle against Josh Sampo, then earned his first victory in the promotion by destroying Sergio Pettis. A submission loss to Ben Nguyen followed, after which he edged Colombian wrestler Fredy Serrano by split decision. Seven of his wins, including four his last five, have come by knockout.
Benoit has flashes of, if not brilliance, then at the very least impressiveness. He has legitimate power and solid scrambling ability; there just seems to be something missing and damned if I can tell you what it is.
He’d better find it if he wants to beat Moreno. The young man has never been stopped and has the kind of terrific submission onslaught that “Baby Face,” whose two UFC losses came via submission, has struggled with in the past. Moreno is going to come in with a ton of confidence and I’m not sure Benoit can knock that out of him before getting tapped.
Final prediction: Moreno by first-round submission
You’ve heard from me, now let’s hear from you. Who gets it done tomorrow night in Vegas?
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is tying a ribbon around season 24 of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24 combat sports reality show (recaps), which happened to be one of the better seasons in terms of mixed martial arts (MMA) competition.
But it featured a bunch of little people so almost nobody watched it.
Those who did will no doubt be anxious to see how the live finale unfolds this Saturday night (Dec. 3, 2016) on FOX Sports 1 (“Prelims” on UFC Fight Pass) from inside Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Leading the charge will be UFC flyweight kingpin Demetrious Johnson, as he takes on TUF 24 champion Tim Elliot. In the five-round co-main event, former division title contenders (and opposing TUF 24 coaches) Joseph Benavidez and Henry Cejudo slug it out to see who stays alive in the 125-pound title chase.
For a comprehensive look at this weekend’s “Prelims” cards, courtesy of MMA Maestro Patty Stumberg, click here and here. Latest odds and betting lines for all the match ups at TUF 24 Finale can be located here.
Now then, let’s get to work.
125 lbs.: UFC Flyweight Champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson (24-2-1) vs. Tim Elliot (13-6-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: Tim Elliot, like Henry Cejudo before him, finagled a flyweight title shot without having to prove he actually deserved one. Neither fighter was tasked with getting past Joseph Benavidez or John Dodson, two of the finest 125-pound fighters in the world.
That’s not to suggest Elliot is a tomato can.
He did what all great fighters do when they hit a rough patch. After getting cut from UFC in early 2015, Elliot went to Titan Fighting Championship and won three in a row, capturing the flyweight title in the process.
Then came four wins in the TUF house.
That’s a seven-fight winning streak (spare me the “exhibition” crap) and one of his best attributes is his unpredictability. Elliot does a good job of working funny angles, has great submissions, and can take down anyone in the flyweight division.
So can Johnson.
Even if Elliot can outstrike Johnson (he can’t) or outwrestle him (he won’t), the one thing he’ll never be able to do is outpace him. “Mighty Mouse” does that Secretariat thing where he actually gets faster and stronger as time goes on.
It’s fun to watch his exhausted opponents break mid-fight.
I would expect Elliot to come out aggressively and throw the kitchen sink at Johnson, who is no longer the decision maker he once was. The champ racked up five violent finishes over the past few years, and that includes stoppages over Benavidez and Cejudo. There simply isn’t a more complete fighter in the game today.
Expect a quick workout.
Final prediction: Johnson def. Elliot by submission
125 lbs.: Joseph Benavidez (24-4) vs. Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo (10-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: Henry Cejudo is ranked No. 2 at 125 pounds, which I find surprising when you consider that he A) was obliterated by Demetrious Johnson and B) has just one win over a top 15 fighter.
That was a split decision against Jussier Formiga.
“The Messenger” was able to build up an impressive win streak on the strength of his Olympic-caliber wrestling. It also helped that he was fighting the cream of the crap, like the 0-7 Michael Poe and the 1-27 Miguelito Marti.
Yes, 1-27.
I don’t see anything across his current body of work, which also includes a couple of weight-cutting fails, that would lead me to pick him over Joseph Benavidez. It’s a shame we never got to see “Joe Jitsu” battle John Dodson, but that’s the way the “Magician” crumbles.
Benavidez, before dropping down to 125 pounds, was the second best bantamweight in the division, falling only to Dominick Cruz. In fact, he took “Dominator” and “Mighty Mouse” to split decisions at WEC 50 and UFC 152, respectively.
With a resume that spans more than a decade, a wealth of experience against the world’s top fighters, and one of the most well-rounded arsenals in this (or any) division, I just don’t see how Benavidez loses this fight.
Final prediction: Benavidez def. Cejudo by unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger (31-11) vs. Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal (30-11)
Nostradumbass predicts: Jake Ellenberger was able to win a stay of execution after a dreadful 1-5 streak over the past few years. That came in the form of a technical knockout win over Matt Brown at UFC 201.
Don’t break out the bubbly just yet.
Ellenberger has always been a powerful striker and let’s face it, Matt Brown is known for his brittle body. It was a great win, no doubt, but I need to see more before I’m ready to declare “The Juggernaut” is back. Maybe that was the confidence boost he needed?
We’ll find out against “Gamebred.”
Jorge Masvidal is probably the most inconsistent athlete in the game today and has more decisions (25) than most fighters have total fights. He’s not the most aggressive striker, but he employs a potent jab and likes to mix in takedowns.
He also takes an inordinate amount of damage in the early going.
That’s a risky proposition against a power puncher like Ellenberger and there isn’t a lot of room for growing pains in a three-round fight. When push comes to shove Masvidal is still the fresher, more tenacious fighter and his history of durability in dangerous fights makes him the safer pick.
Or the boring pick.
Final prediction: Masvidal def. Ellenberger by unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier (8-1) vs. Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba (12-2, 1 NC)
Nostradumbass predicts: I have a soft spot in my heart for Jared Cannonier because the first time I said his name out loud, my ride-or-die homie thought I said “Jared, can of beer.” Since his name is Jared too, he brought me a can of beer and we ended up getting shitfaced.
There’s much more to the story, but in the off chance the SB Nation executives read this column, I need to spare you the Hangover-esque details.
Let’s just say that cow had a lot to moo about.
Anyway, Jared Cannonier rebounded from a UFC debut loss to Shawn Jordan by crushing Cyril Asker at UFC Fight Night 86. That amateur snuff film pushed his finishing rate to roughly 88 percent.
There’s a reason they call him “Killa Gorilla.”
Like his fight night foe, Ion Cutelaba was also put away in his Octagon debut, only to come back and notch an impressive win in his follow-up fight. For “The Hulk,” that came in the form of a unanimous decision nod over Jonathan Wilson last October.
Cannonier is coming down from heavyweight and packs a wallop. Unfortunately, he’s fighting a durable opponent with menacing hands and aggressive offense. Unless the former lands the one-hitter quitter, the latter will overwhelm him with strikes.
Early in the first round sounds about right to me.
Final prediction: Cutelaba def. Cannonier by knockout
135 lbs.: Alexis “Ally-Gator” Davis (17-6) vs. Sara McMann (9-3)
Nostradumbass predicts: Since pounding out Sheila Gaff at UFC 159 in her Octagon debut, I have yet to see an outing from Sara McMann that I would consider impressive. In fact, she’s dropped three of her last five and got finished twice.
Her most recent performance was a three-round snoozer over Jessica Eye in a “fight” that was just plain awful.
Working in her favor is her brute power and athleticism, two things Alexis Davis does not have. In addition, the “Ally-Gator” has not competed since her submission win over Sarah Kaufman in April 2015.
Maternity leave saw to that.
Davis is the better fighter thanks to a more well-rounded skill set, but I can’t help but wonder — particularly in a three-round fight — if the stronger, more active McMann can’t steal two rounds by spamming takedowns.
Judges love that shit. Fans? Not so much…
Final prediction: McMann def. Davis via split decision
125 lbs.: Ryan “Baby Face” Benoit (9-4) vs. Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno (12-3)
Patrick Stumberg (filling in for Nostradumbass on this one) predicts: Ranked sixteenth of sixteen on TUF 24, Moreno fell in the opening round but acquitted himself well against top-seeded Alexandre Pantoja. Undaunted, he stepped up on short notice to submit Louis Smolka at Fight Night 96 and pick up his ninth consecutive pro victory. He’s submitted nine opponents overall, seven of them in the first round.
“Baby Face” opened his UFC career with a Fight of the Night battle against Josh Sampo, then earned his first victory in the promotion by destroying Sergio Pettis. A submission loss to Ben Nguyen followed, after which he edged Colombian wrestler Fredy Serrano by split decision. Seven of his wins, including four his last five, have come by knockout.
Benoit has flashes of, if not brilliance, then at the very least impressiveness. He has legitimate power and solid scrambling ability; there just seems to be something missing and damned if I can tell you what it is.
He’d better find it if he wants to beat Moreno. The young man has never been stopped and has the kind of terrific submission onslaught that “Baby Face,” whose two UFC losses came via submission, has struggled with in the past. Moreno is going to come in with a ton of confidence and I’m not sure Benoit can knock that out of him before getting tapped.
Final prediction: Moreno by first-round submission
