Turner Vs. Moicano Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight talents Jalin Turner and Renato Moicano will battle this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 300.

Turner is a couple debatable split decisions away from having won eight in a row. Because those couple judges went against him, however, Turner is working to break into the Top 10 rather than in immediate title contention. Either way, the lanky and powerful “Tarantula” is a threat to just about everyone in the division. Meanwhile, Moicano has won four of his last five to establish himself as a ranked Lightweight. He still has yet to match his Featherweight peak, however, and the 34-year-old Brazilian is still working to break into contention himself.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Turner vs. Moicano Betting Odds

• Jalin Turner victory: -235
• Renato Moicano victory: +170
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Turner Wins

“The Tarantula” is an apt moniker for Turner. The 28-year-old Californian is so long and dangerous for 155 pounds … and the real problem for the division is that he uses his length brilliantly. Look no further than his knockout of Bobby Green last time out, perfectly set up by a lovely double jab (watch it).

In this bout, Turner wins by dropping the hammer on Moicano. The Brazilian is durable, but nobody at 155 pounds has been able to shrug off Turner’s punches without feeling them. Even if the knockout doesn’t materialize, bouncing one-two combinations off Moicano’s skull will slow him down and make the takedown threat significantly less severe.

Generally, Moicano’s best takedowns come from the body lock, and he usually sets them up by ducking under a punch to gain the hips. For that reason, an extra dash of feints and that aforementioned double jab could be really helpful in maintaining distance. Turner wants to stay at the very edge of his range, and he shouldn’t make Moicano’s job easier by falling forward with his punches.

How Moicano Wins

Moicano is a very well-rounded veteran. He’s got a great jab and shredding low kicks, but his ground game remains his bread-and-butter. If able to gain top position, Moicano is a serious submission threat at 155 pounds.

It’s going to take all those skills and a bit of grit to get through Turner, however. The dangers of being well-rounded are on display here: it doesn’t matter that Moicano’s jiu-jitsu is elite if he cannot drag down Turner to the floor.

To help facilitate the takedown, Moicano simply has to earn his opponent’s respect on the feet. Low kicks just might be the way to do it. As well most lanky fighters, Turner doesn’t like have his calves punted, and Moicano’s ability to pair the jab and low kicks together is absolutely good enough to threaten his base.

If Moicano can start to destabilize Turner, he can draw heavier attacks and counters from the Californian — that’s his path to the takedown, to top position, and possibly to a submission finish.

Turner vs. Moicano Prediction

It’s hard to go against the favorite here.

If I was really chasing concision, Turner’s path to victory could be adequately described as “sprawl and brawl.” That’s his usual path to victory. “The Tarantula” is a Lightweight giant with disgusting knockout power and the understanding of range to make proper use of those gifts — he’s a hard fight for just about every Lightweight short of Islam Makhachev.

Moicano, meanwhile, has to thread the eye of a storm. It’s a much taller ask. He has to be perfect on the feet while treading dangerous waters, and even if he gets Turner down, there’s no guarantee that Turner won’t quickly pop back up from underneath the former Featherweight.

Simply put: Turner is too big and too athletic to bet against here.

Prediction: Jalin Turner victory (-235)

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