UFC 110 – Nogueira VS. Velasquez takes place this Saturday, February 21st in sunny Sydney, Australia. In the UFC’s maiden voyage to the lonely continent, former UFC and PRIDE Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will take on young gun Cain Velasquez. The co-main event will showcase Wanderlei Silva’s first foray into the Middleweight division under the Zuffa banner as he takes on former TUF winner and coach Michael Bisping.
UFC 110 is interesting from a sports betting perspective because it’s marked by a feeling of “win or you’re out”. Several fighters on this card are in serious slumps, and guys like Stephan Bonnar, Keith Jardine, Wanderlei Silva and Mirko Filipovic sorely need a victory. This sort of desperation should absolutely factor into your betting strategy, as there is rarely something more dangerous than a man with his back against a wall.
As per the format of MMAMoneyLine’s predictions, I will only cover the fights that have betting value. Depending on which way you look at it, UFC 110 could either be chock full of solid betting opportunities or riddled with potential wagering disasters. I happen to be the former. Here are MMAMoneyLine’s betting recommendations for UFC 110.
Cain Velasquez VS. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
It’s been quite a while since the UFC has put on a card where the two main fights were so competitive. The line for this fight looked much different a few months ago than it does now: Antonio Nogueira was almost a -250 favorite, with Cain Velasquez inching toward being a +200 underdog. A ton of money has been coming in on Velasquez since these odds opened, and Velasquez is the favorite on all sports books as of this posting.
The odds have evened out to better reflect how close this fight really is. No way was Rodrigo a -250 favorite. Conversely, Velasquez was far from a 33% to win underdog. The current line is pretty close to right in my opinion, however I still believe there is a betting opportunity to be had here.
Minotauro Nogueira has world class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Judo, holding a black belt in both. He is also an underrated boxer, showing his technical skill and punching power in his last fight against Randy Couture. Nogueira brings these exceptional skill sets together with legendary toughness, impressive conditioning and high level experience. It also doesn’t hurt to train with guys like Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida and Mark Munoz.
We all know what type of fighter CainVelasquez is. He, along with Lesnar and Carwin, personify the new breed of Heavyweight mixed martial artist: big, strong, athletic wrestlers with dangerous punching power. Velasquez has an All-American collegiate wrestling pedigree, a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu purple belt and some seriously improving striking thanks to American Kickboxing Academy.
There are several questions in this fight that make it so interesting and competitive. As far as I’m concerned, the two main concerns in this bout is whether Velasquez can implement successful top control on Nogueira and whether Nogueira can handle the abuse Velasquez will undoubtedly inflict.
The Couture/Nogueira fight showed us a lot about Nogueira’s overall ground game, not just his submission game. He was able to sweep Couture several times, not an easy task considering Randy Couture is one of the best wrestlers in MMA. I know Velasquez is much bigger and stronger than Couture, but how am I supposed to believe Cain will avoid a sweep when Couture couldn’t? Even if Velasquez does hold top control for an extended period, avoiding Nogueira’s bottom submission game is easier said than done.
Velasquez does have the power to catch Nogueira on the feet, although betting on Rodrigo’s iron chin to crack isn’t wise. Minotauro is the more technical striker, a very important edge in a contest with no reach advantage. Giving Cain his due, I think the Kongo/Velasquez fight proved to many of us that Velasquez is no slouch in the chin department either.
Cain Velasquez has to fight the perfect fight to beat Antonio Nogueira. He has to either knock out a man who is famous for being impossible to finish, or maintain top control on one of the greatest Heavyweight Brazilian Jiu Jitsu players in MMA history. Don’t expect a Cain Velasquez striking-fueled decision: he doesn’t have the skill or experience to stand with Nogueira for 15 minutes and get the better of him. This fight will be close but I always bet against a fighter fighting the perfect fight, this being no exception. Nogueira wins two out of three rounds, but takes a split due to judging ignorance.
My pick: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira via split decision.
Betting play: Nogueira advocates, your patience has paid off. If you can get Nogueira for better than even money, it is a great bet. MMAMoneyLine recommends a moderate to heavy play on Antonio Nogueira at +105 on SportBet or 5Dimes.
Mirko Filipovic VS. Ben Rothwell
In what could very well be his swan song (I’ve probably said that about 4 times now), Mirko Filipovic takes on former IFL standout Ben Rothwell. Before getting into my analysis here, I have a brief message for MMA bettors out there: it makes no sense to put money on the Cro Cop of ‘05/06 beating the Ben Rothwell who got stopped by Velasquez. Believing that the Cro Cop that is in Australia right now is the same guy that had those great fights against Wanderlei Silva, Fedor Emelianenko and Josh Barnett is a mistake…he is not the same guy. Here’s a quick breakdown of Filipovic’s last 7 fights:
-got killed by Junior dos Santos
-beat Mustapha al Turk with an eye poke
-won a freak show fight against Hong Man
-was lucky to get out of the Overeem fight with a DQ, he was getting soundly beaten
-beat a can
-looked uninspired in a loss to Cheick Kongo
-got knocked out by Gabriel Gonzaga
This fight isn’t as much about Rothwell’s abilities as it is about Filipovic’s deterioration. He has looked uninspired and unsure of himself since knocking out Eddie Sanchez in his UFC debut three years ago. He has gone through much mental anguish over his latest career developments, and one has to wonder where he’s at now mentally. Physically speaking, everyone knows how powerful that head kick is but he doesn’t seem to throw it with the same intentions anymore. The Cro Cop of old would let six or seven of those fly a night, every one with a one way ticket to the hospital attached.
If the Cro Cop who fought Gonzaga, Kongo, al Turk and dos Santos shows up against Rothwell, I don’t even know if he gets the better of the striking exchanges. Rothwell is a tough, experienced, well rounded fighter who’s been in the cage/ring against some big names before. He isn’t afraid of anyone, and will be willing to use his brute striking attack against a timid Filipovic. I also believe that Rothwell will be the first fighter in a while to put Cro Cop on his back. If this fight hits the mat, Cro Cop will be in deep water against a fighter with 11 submission victories and an overall punishing top game.
If Cro Cop gets a vintage knockout against a tough vet like Rothwell, nobody will be happier than this guy. The return of “right leg, hospital – left leg, cemetery” would be a treat for hardcore MMA fans. However, recent history has made me doubt that particular outcome. I believe Cro Cop will take a round off Rothwell, probably the first due to the feeling out process and better technical striking. However, Big Ben gets the last laugh with a bullying ground and pound TKO.
My pick: Ben Rothwell via TKO in the 3rd
Betting play: If Rothwell was able to do anything against Velasquez, he would have been a favorite here. However, I still think he’s being undervalued against a fighter deep into the twilight of his career. Rothwell at +130 on Sportsbook has the MMAMoneyLine stamp of approval. Using this underdog play to cover your Nogueira bet wouldn’t be a bad strategy.
Ryan Bader VS. Keith Jardine
Keith Jardine hasn’t gotten an easy fight in 3 years. Ironically, the last gimme fight “The Dean of Mean” was handed was a crushing defeat against an unknown Nebraska DJ. Excluding his loss to Alexander in May 2007, he fought Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell, Wanderlei Silva, Brandon Vera, Quinton Jackson and Thiago Silva in less than 3 years. Going 3-3 against that group is pretty remarkable.
I totally agree with Mike Hammersmith from MMAMafia: Jardine is a guy who is always undervalued on sportsbooks. Jardine’s three most recent losses have all come against the same type of fighter: aggressive, risk taking, violent strikers. Ryan Bader might not fit the mold of fighters who’ve tasted victory against Jardine, but his wrestling cannot be understated. Bader is an absolute animal; a very athletic, explosive wrestler who throws bombs. Bader’s wrestling has the potential to give Keith Jardine a lot of problems because I honestly can’t even name the last time I saw Jardine defend a takedown.
Although Keith Jardine does have a wrestling background and trains with one of the best wrestlers at Light Heavyweight in Rashad Evans, he will be outmatched on the mat. Bader has shown in his fight against Marrero that he can beat a good wrestler. The good news for Jardine is that he will have a pretty sizable striking advantage over the wild punching Bader. Jardine’s unorthodox striking has given very seasoned strikers problems, and will no doubt be very difficult for a relative MMA novice in Bader to deal with. I believe Jardine’s stamina will give him an advantage in the later rounds if he can avoid a Bader haymaker.
Bader would be nuts to stand with Jardine. A guy with the resume of Keith Jardine isn’t going to be scared of Ryan Bader. Jardine’s deadly leg kicks and oddly effective striking would be a nightmare for Bader. However, I do believe Ryan Bader is disciplined enough to stick to a smart game plan and use a lot of double legs against Jardine. If Bader is able to take Jardine down and keep him there, he wins this fight. If Jardine can use his wrestling in reverse and keep the fight standing, he wins this fight. This one is very close, but I give the edge to Bader and his wrestling ability.
My pick: Ryan Bader via unanimous decision
Betting play: Although I think Bader takes this fight about 55-60% of the time, the smart bet here in on Jardine. He is at +135 (43%) on Bodog and 5Dimes. It may be a small edge, but small edges make money. MMAMoneyLine likes a small bet on Jardine’s striking and experience.
Chris Lytle VS. Brian Foster
In an under card bout, consummate UFC vet Chris Lytle will be looking to stop the momentum of Brian Foster. This one is going to be pretty explosive; if you can find a sports book that pays out Fight Of The Night, make this fight your bet.
We know what Lytle is all about. He is a former pro boxer with (obvious) good hands. He has a solid ground game as well, but primarily uses it only if it’s given to him or in the event of an emergency. Lytle’s best asset is his toughness. If you can name the last time Lytle was knocked out or submitted, you’re full of shit…it never happened. He’s been stopped twice because of cuts, but the rest of his losses (15 to be exact) have been via decision.
For a guy who is a pretty sizable underdog, Brian Foster has a lot going for him. He’s a very well rounded fighter. Like Lytle, Foster is dangerous at all times when inside the octagon. By training at HIT Squad, Foster also has the tutelage of Matt Hughes and Robbie Lawler…two fighters who hold victories over Lytle. Since Lytle’s style doesn’t change much, information from his former opponents could prove very important.
The only thing that should worry Brian Foster in this fight is Lytle’s submission game. Although “Lights Out” is a former boxer, he’s had 17 submission wins. Out of Foster’s four career losses, three have been by way of the tap. If Foster can keep his head and not get overzealous on the mat, he’ll be fine.
Overall, I like Foster here. I have a ton of respect for Chris Lytle, but all those wars are wearing on him. I think Brian Foster is going to me more aggressive than Lytle’s recent opponents and really press the action. Foster looked real good picking up the pace against a tough Brock Larson. He also showed his toughness by taking two illegal hits and still dominating the fight. When you have a young, hungry fighter pressing the action against a vet who may have lost a step, I like the former’s odds.
My pick: Foster via unanimous decision
Betting play: Foster at +145 on Sportsbook might be the best play on this card. Lytle is clearly overvalued against a very dangerous fighter not many people know about. MMAMoneyLine recommends a good sized underdog play on Brian Foster.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Nogueira/Split Decision
Silva/KO/2
Rothwell/TKO/3
Bader/Unanimous Decision
Stevenson/SUB/2
Soszynski/Unanimous Decision
Reljic/TKO/2
Foster/Unanimous Decision
Te Huna/TKO/1
Sinosic/SUB/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Nogueira – 2 u. at +105
Serra – 1.25 u at +130
Jardine – .25 u at +135
Foster – 1.5 u at +145