265 lbs: Interim HW Title Fight – Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin
Odds: (-160 Mir / +130 Carwin)
In the co-main event of the evening, former Heavyweight champion Frank Mir will look to cement a third fight with Brock Lesnar against undefeated prospect Shane Carwin, who was originally scheduled to fight the champion before Lesnar’s highly-publicized bout with diverticulitis. Carwin has looked like a monster so far, but Mir is a massive step up in competition for him, and is way more well-rounded than anyone Mir has ever faced or is likely to ever face. With immediate title implications in this fight and both men’s explosive offense, this is not a fight to miss.
Shane Carwin, the undefeated top contender in the Heavyweight division, is a huge man with a surplus of power in his hands. Originally a wrestler, Carwin hasn’t shown much of his wrestling base in the UFC, opting instead to destroy his opponents with huge power punching. It’s safe to assume that he has pretty good wrestling too, but his best attribute is definitely his huge punching power. He also has a solid chin, as he proved by surviving a scary assault from Gabriel Gonzaga in his last fight. The two big question marks for Carwin are how well his submission defense can hold up against a grappler of Mir’s caliber and how much his one year layoff from activity is going to affect his performance
Mir, the former champion, is one of the most prolific grapplers in the Heavyweight division, but he also has a devastating boxing game, as he proved by being the first man to knock out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and by blitzing highly-regarded kickboxer Cheick Kongo in his last outing. Mir’s mixture of punching power and submission prowess is unique in the division, which makes him a particularly dangerous step up for Carwin. Mir’s big question mark is his chin, as he has been dropped and finished by guys with far less power than Carwin.
This is an interesting fight. Carwin’s chin is probably less suspect than Mir’s, but both guys punch extremely hard and it’s unlikely that Carwin survives the kind of blitz he took from Gonzaga from a guy as experienced and hungry as Mir. Carwin may have the wrestling to take Mir down, but if this fight goes to the ground I don’t see Carwin being ready for what Mir can throw at him in terms of submissions. Carwin is really dangerous, but I think that Mir is just too dangerous and too complete for such a young and inexperienced fighter to handle. It took Lesnar two tries to crack Mir, and I think Carwin is going to suffer the same fate. I expect him to get dropped with a shot midway through the first and promptly choked out.
Prediction: Frank Mir via Second Round rear naked choke.
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