170 lbs: Jon Fitch vs. Ben Saunders
Odds: (-525 Fitch / +325 Saunders)
Ben Saunders, who was originally scheduled to face Jake Ellenberger, has stepped up to face Jon Fitch after Fitch’s original opponent, Thiago Alves, failed to gain licensing following some troubling CAT scan results. Ellenberger was a solid opponent for Saunders, who is still growing into his own as a mixed martial artist, but now he is getting thrown into the deep end with the notoriously hard to handle Fitch. A win for Saunders would be a massive upset, so he is to be commended for taking such a tough fight on short notice.
Fitch is a tough boxer and greco roman wrestler who doesn’t overwhelm his opponents so much as he slowly but surely sucks the life out of them with his solid boxing and stifling clinch game. He’s not great at finishing opponents, he doesn’t always put on exciting fights, and he’s not spectacular at any one area of the fight game, but he is tough as nails and is probably better than anyone at completely nullifying his opponents’ game plans. Fitch’s only UFC loss was to seemingly unstoppable champion Georges St. Pierre, and while his wins have not all been pretty, they have continued to pile up regularly.
Saunders, who styles himself a Jeet Kune Do fighter, has an unorthodox but very effective grappling game and has grown into a pretty formidable Muay Thai fighter as well. An unusually tall fighter for the division, Saunders uses his length well both to set up submissions and to secure the clinch and lambast opponents with big knees and elbows. The problem Saunders is going to run into, aside from Fitch’s massive advantage in experience and quality of opposition, is that there is no way he is going to be able to take Fitch down, and if he tries to strike in the clinch he is playing right into Fitch’s game plan.
Hopefully this fight will earn Saunders some credit with the UFC brass, because he is not going to get a win. Fitch is too much for most of the division, much less a guy like Saunders who still hasn’t found his niche or hit his peak. Even if Saunders could take Fitch down, which he can’t, Fitch is too good to get submitted by him, and Fitch’s aggressive way of forcing the clinch will completely nullify any power or reach advantage Saunders might possibly have. Expect this to look like most Fitch fights, with Saunders being forced up against the cage and roughed up in plodding but effective fashion. Fitch by T/KO.
Prediction: Jon Fitch via second round T/KO.
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