Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves
Odds: ( +100 Fitch / -130 Alves)
The second bout of the evening is an anticipated rematch in the Welterweight division, with Thiago “Pitbull” Alves looking to avenge his loss to AKA’s Jon Fitch. Their first fight was a very competitive affair until Fitch caught Alves with an upkick and then unloaded on him for the stoppage. Alves has looked awesome since then, losing only to champion Georges St. Pierre, while Fitch has been his usual plodding but effective self, looking uninspiring but getting the job done consistently.
Fitch, an excellent Greco Roman wrestler with solid boxing, trains out of AKA with other top Welterweight stars Josh Koscheck and Mike Swick. Fitch is frequently criticized for the fact that his fights are sometimes unwatchably boring, and the fact that he almost never finishes an opponent, but no one can deny that he is good at coming out of fights with his hand raised. His boxing is not dangerous, in terms of finishing a fight, but he is good at doing enough damage and using his stifling clinch game to earn decisions, even against top-flight fighters. It’s not hard to predict how Fitch will try to deal with Alves, because he deals with every opponent the same way. The question is whether or not Alves will find a way to deal with it this time.
Unlike Fitch, Thiago Alves is a very aggressive fighter who is always looking to finish his opponents. Fitch is a very versatile striker with good boxing and powerful Muay Thai. He can strike from a distance or deal damage from the clinch, which is a huge advantage against a fighter like Fitch. Alves’ ground game is not spectacular, although it is often times underrated. In the grappling, Fitch is better both from the clinch and on the ground, but Alves has looked really good against quite a few top-level grapplers. For him to win, he has to find a way to push the pace without falling into Fitch’s gameplan.
Although Fitch won the first fight, the way it ended was more than a little flukish, and I don’t think a repeat is in the cards. Alves has grown a lot as a fighter, and isn’t going to let Fitch hold him to a decision. He will win pretty much all the striking exchanges, and do enough with knees and elbows from the clinch to keep Fitch from executing his game plan. Fitch is hard to put away, so I see this one going the distance, but Alves should earn the unanimous decision by roughing up Fitch standing.
Prediction: Thiago “Pitbull” Alves via will even up the score via unanimous decision.
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